Transfer Rumours transfer thread fact and fiction

[The Huddlefro]

Do they?

Hoarding a bunch of young players across Europe and putting them on 8 year contracts, with massive wages, doesn’t seem like something every club does.

Sorry, I meant the financial deductions and other practices referenced in Swiss Ramble’s blog, rather than the transfer activity.

As the blog points out, because of the way the PL allows clubs to account for the Covid years, and other limitations on their transfer activity recently, Chelsea can spend now but not so easily in the summer.

Also worth noting that they’re phenomenally good at selling players, it seems.

 

[The Huddlefro]

Unless I misunderstood, the glaring loophole is that amortisation is only applied in one direction i.e. fees on players signed are spread across x years of the contract, whilst players sold every penny is tallied in the profit margin with immediate effect, despite the fact that 80%+ of that money won't materialise for many years to come.

That seems grossly unfair to me, nor does it discourage fiscal recklessness.

It’s an accounting trick reflecting a player being treated as a depreciating asset. You could try and enforce that transfer fees had to be paid upfront but I don’t know if that’s even legal and there’s ways around it anyway, which is how most clubs pay release clauses. Plus it would have a catastrophic effect on team management.

 

[PowerSpurs]

Clubs with deeper pockets don’t look for rising or unknown talents though, or even players with semi-respectable reputations, they just target the players already established as established players essentially come with a reduced risk of flopping as well as immediate commercial bonuses. Two years ago Chelsea wouldn’t have scoured Ecuador for Caicedo as a possible first team signing, now he’s shown his quality with Brighton they’re rumoured to be happy to spend £50m.

5th to 4th is a game changer though. That’s the difference between earning a minimum of around £60m to about a maximum of £20m when playing in the CL compared to the EL. And if Spurs as you say are the 5th biggest/ 5th best/ 5th richest, then that one extra spot via better club alignment and strategy gets us Champions League football.

I probably mentioned Bowen being someone who was on our radar for a while that we could've taken a punt on, especially as we’re low on HG players (and good ones at that too) but as far as I can remember Soucek is the only one I felt was brilliant scouting on their part and a player who would’ve made our XI at the time. I still think he’s a good player for what it’s worth but he’s not really someone who’d fit our profile of CM now.

The rich clubs do though. Chelsea offset a lot of their operating loss by selling on unused talent.
The point I was trying to make was that we already tend to finish about one place above our wealth ranking on average. And I think that is actually due to us having a good transfer record. Certainly the two recent finishes outside the top 4 followed the window where we signed Ndombele and Lo Celso.
But being 4th or 5th best isn't the right long term strategy. Every little helps I suppose but more money is the only real game changer.

 

[Dier Hard]

The rich clubs do though. Chelsea offset a lot of their operating loss by selling on unused talent.
The point I was trying to make was that we already tend to finish about one place above our wealth ranking on average. And I think that is actually due to us having a good transfer record. Certainly the two recent finishes outside the top 4 followed the window where we signed Ndombele and Lo Celso.
But being 4th or 5th best isn't the right long term strategy. Every little helps I suppose but more money is the only real game changer.

Chelsea rarely buy upcoming talents unless they themselves are already established and then they cost a bomb (like Badiashile, Fofana etc), they snap up a lot of youth players for their academy but that’s different to signing an unknown who then develops into a key player.

Finishing 5th is about where we should be, 6th would also be acceptable but 4th would be slightly above expectations and that’s definitely capable with the right decision making at the club, especially when we lucked out producing a player like Kane, who on his own can take a club up a place or two.

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

Richarlison's played on both flanks for us this season and if Son were to get injured or dropped, Richarlison would be next in line to start there. If we had Trossard, he'd represent the best alternative to Son in that position and on current form would probably start ahead of Son if we're being honest.

As for RW, there is in fairness little evidence he'd be great there but if we're in a situation where Kulusevski and Gil (and Richarlison?) are injured and you have to select Lucas or Trossard, then it's Trossard all day long.

He upgrades on Sessegnon blindfolded, I assume it was Sessegnon you meant instead of Emerson anyway, easy mistake though, both shocking players.

Richy has primarily been used as a RW, which is easily remembered as that's when our creativity started to disappear which may have had something to do with Deki being dropped and Richy taking his place, which once again has us lurching back to Conte's self-sabotage

As I honestly can't recall Trossard ever playing as a RW, it's really not a good bet to presume he might be decent cover for Deki, especially with our track record of having various tactical brainfarts along those same lines (i.e. because Aaron Lennon can play as a LW, move him over there to justify paying £15m on David Bentley)

The thing with Emerson and Sessgnon is our fanbase has made them Sacrificial Trash this season, which is why so many comments about them are interchangeable, hence Backup Emerson

...before you ask, Sacrificial Trash is a term to describe media where the following three steps occur:
i.) It prominently features female/minority/LGBT+ involvement in the cast or creative department that the angry CHUDs of the internet rant and rave about for months before it comes out (i.e. Ghostbusters reboot, The Force Awakens, Spider Man: Far From Home, High Guardian Spice)
ii.) It is not of brilliant quality when it does come out - which is why Far From Home and, to a lesser degree, The Force Awakens slipped out of those conversations PDQ
iii.) As a result of the first two points, discussion of its badness gets grossly overinflated - hence anyone has heard of High Guardian Spice in The Year of Our Great Old One of 2023

And that's what discussions about Emerson and Sessegnon are at the moment: people acting like they're Velma, to the point I've genuinely seen people call Emerson our worst-ever signing, when the reality is that they're 6/10 players in the current system yet people are acting like they're the antichrist

 

[Citizen Kane.]

Having set off a 3 page debate this morning, I should add that one thing that really struck me about the Deloitte list was how close we are to Chelsea in annual revenue.

Let that sink in.

For all their trophies and CL income over the past two decades, two things happened: they failed to properly capitalise in growing their global brand sufficiently, and we built a new stadium. The team above them (Barca) are miles ahead of us.

This realisation is equal parts comforting as it is disturbing.

Comforting because it confirms that as inept as Levy is on the pitch, off the pitch he is probably the best in the game.

Disturbing because it suggests something Spurlock mentioned earlier and I think we all probably know to be true but are too afraid to confront it:

Winning trophies, even major ones and even at a very regular pace, means far less to overall revenue than stadium size, commercial deals and non-footballing events.

Fans want to see trophies. Owners want to see profit. These goals are almost totally divergent.

 

[Roo]

Apparently Chelsea have made an enquiry for Bissouma.

 

[PleaseNotPoll]

Fans want to see trophies. Owners want to see profit. These goals are almost totally divergent.

I disagree. Look at the list. It's the clubs that win things, basically.
The problem is that we've been competing against clubs with more money than us.
We've been outspent for decades and it went from Man Utd to Chelsea to City, in the main.

The three most successful clubs in England were Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal.
They're now being challenged by City, Chelsea and Newcastle due to dodgy dictator cash.
We've somehow got to deal with all of them and come out ahead. It's extremely frustrating.

Nobody else has come close to even competing with any regularity.
Most of those that tried (Leeds, Villa, Newcastle pre-Bonesaw) fell away and got relegated.
Everton have just struggled along, gradually getting worse.
Occasionally someone will break through, but they rarely last long.

 

[Dier Hard]

Richy has primarily been used as a RW, which is easily remembered as that's when our creativity started to disappear which may have had something to do with Deki being dropped and Richy taking his place, which once again has us lurching back to Conte's self-sabotage

As I honestly can't recall Trossard ever playing as a RW, it's really not a good bet to presume he might be decent cover for Deki, especially with our track record of having various tactical brainfarts along those same lines (i.e. because Aaron Lennon can play as a LW, move him over there to justify paying £15m on David Bentley)

The thing with Emerson and Sessgnon is our fanbase has made them Sacrificial Trash this season, which is why so many comments about them are interchangeable, hence Backup Emerson

...before you ask, Sacrificial Trash is a term to describe media where the following three steps occur:
i.) It prominently features female/minority/LGBT+ involvement in the cast or creative department that the angry CHUDs of the internet rant and rave about for months before it comes out (i.e. Ghostbusters reboot, The Force Awakens, Spider Man: Far From Home, High Guardian Spice)
ii.) It is not of brilliant quality when it does come out - which is why Far From Home and, to a lesser degree, The Force Awakens slipped out of those conversations PDQ
iii.) As a result of the first two points, discussion of its badness gets grossly overinflated - hence anyone has heard of High Guardian Spice in The Year of Our Great Old One of 2023

And that's what discussions about Emerson and Sessegnon are at the moment: people acting like they're Velma, to the point I've genuinely seen people call Emerson our worst-ever signing, when the reality is that they're 6/10 players in the current system yet people are acting like they're the antichrist

He’s also been used as a LW and he’d be the first player to play LW if Son doesn’t play… so if Trossard joined he’d be a better bet.

On the basis that Richarlison and Lucas are poor RWs and Conte probably punches a wall when he has to play Gil, I think many wouldn’t mind seeing Trossard play RW should Kulu be out or rested.

If Sessegnon and Emerson were 6/10 players many fans would be fine with them. Ben Davies is a 6/10 player, Dier probably just scrapes being one too. I’d say Emerson as a defender is probably a 4.5-5, Sessegnon though is genuinely awful and whether you want to call it sacrificial trash or any other term, these are genuinely poor players. They may not be our worst ever signings but they’re not far off either.

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

You think he’s still involved?

To be honest, even though a lot of their players are young and talented, they are putting an extraordinary amount of faith in these young players fulfilling their potential. If they don’t, they’re stuck with underperforming players on massive contracts. Then again, these pricks will probably find a way to absorb the costs by cancelling their contracts or loaning them out to the Eredivise, paying their wages and never hearing from them again.

I read Swiss Ramble’s piece on it earlier:
https://swissramble.substack.com/p/will-chelseas-transfer-spend-break

Didn’t do much to encourage me they’ll be proportionally penalised for this madness. In fact, I know they won’t based on the measly fines City and PSG had in the past.

I appreciate Chelsea aren’t the only ones guilty of this, but it seems far too easy to manipulate the accounting figures (which seems to be allowed).

A few months back Private Eye posted a breakdown of the goings-on after Boehly took over, and it looked suspicious as **** then. I will advise you now to grab a pen and piece of paper, as you will be writing down a bunch of names to try and keep up with this...

The private equity shape of things to come at Stamford Bridge is indicated by the complex post-Roman Abramovich corporate structure for the Premier League club now owned by American Todd Boehly and his US and Swiss partners led by Clearlake Capital, major funders of the £4.25bn deal.

The £2.5bn paid for Chelsea (another £1.75bn is pledged for future investment in the stadium, academy and players) went to a Treasury-controlled UK bank account intended to prevent the sanctioned Abramovich from benefitting from the sale. He has stated that the "net proceeds" will go to an as yet unidentified charity for unspecified "victims of the war in Ukraine".

On 30 May, the Abramovich-controlled company Fordstam ceased to be the owner of the club's immediate parent company, Chelsea FC, bought from Ken Bates and others in 2003 for £60.7m cash. It has been renamed Chelsea FC Holdings. However, four days before that change of control, the company issued 3,069,461 new shares for £61.4m cash. Who paid and why is as yet unclear.

A new company, Blueco 22, replaced Fordstam. On 1 June, Boehly and fellow American billionaire Behdad Eghbali, a co-founder of Clearlake, became directors of Chelsea FC Holdings and the club. Also on 1 June, 1000 new shares in Chelsea FC Holdings were issued for £100m cash, presumably from Blueco 22. This UK company in turn is controlled by Blues Partners.

Between 6 May and 25 May, "significant control" of Blues Partners, which then had just two issued shares, was first held by Boehly, who was then joined by Blues Investment Midco. Midco is a style of company name resonant with leveraged private equity deals. These are the companies that often borrow the money that provides the gearing for equity investors.

Boehly was then replaced by Blueco 22 Investor Holdings (controlled by Boehly), only for that stake of up to 50 percent to return to Boehly. After that share shuffle, 150m new A and 94m B shares in Blues Partners were issued for just £20.

Blues Investment Midco lists Eghbali and his Clearlake co-founder Jose Feliciano as directors. Clearlake funds are reportedly providing 60 percent of the money for the Chelsea deal. On 30 May, Midco issued 1000 new shares for £1.5m - a sum which closely resembled the number of A shares issued that day by Blues Partners, representing around a 61 percent share stake.

Eghbali signed on behalf of the sole Midco shareholder, Blues Partners GP LLC - limited liability company or corporation, depending in which US state or tax haven it is incorporated. GP is the general/managing partner of Blues Investment Holdings LP or limited partnership. Offshore general and limited partnerships are often used as vehicles by private equity fund investors.

A UK limited partnership, Blueco 22 Holdings LP, shares control of Blues Partners with Midco. The general partner is Boehly via non-UK Blueco 22 Holdings LLC. The limited partners are Swiss billionaire Hansjorg Wyss plus Guggenheim Partners CEO Mark Walter, Boehly's partner in the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team. The likely vehicle for their Chelsea investment. Last week a new UK company joined the Chelsea team, Blueco 22 Midco, controlled by Blueco 22.

This dizzying corporate dance is part of the no doubt highly tax-efficient financial engineering behind the Chelsea takeover. The structure will subsequently reveal how that £4.25bn has been funded, who has invested and owns what, and how big and costly a debt burden Chelsea will be carrying from next season. No more interest-free £1.5bn Abramovich loans, stand by for higher ticket prices.

The American private equity playbook is to look for a way out at a big profit after three to five years. Elliott Management recently exited after four years from its stake in Italian champions Milan to another investment manager, RedBird Capital.

There's one section which has always stuck out for me about that piece, and it's this one (which I could've emboldened first time around, but we're stuck here now...)

On 30 May, the Abramovich-controlled company Fordstam ceased to be the owner of the club's immediate parent company, Chelsea FC, bought from Ken Bates and others in 2003 for £60.7m cash. It has been renamed Chelsea FC Holdings. However, four days before that change of control, the company issued 3,069,461 new shares for £61.4m cash. Who paid and why is as yet unclear.

That's where things sound mightily suspicious, because that's about as transparent as a sheet of lead

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

He’s also been used as a LW and he’d be the first player to play LW if Son doesn’t play… so if Trossard joined he’d be a better bet.

On the basis that Richarlison and Lucas are poor RWs and Conte probably punches a wall when he has to play Gil, I think many wouldn’t mind seeing Trossard play RW should Kulu be out or rested.

If Sessegnon and Emerson were 6/10 players many fans would be fine with them. Ben Davies is a 6/10 player, Dier probably just scrapes being one too. I’d say Emerson as a defender is probably a 4.5-5, Sessegnon though is genuinely awful and whether you want to call it sacrificial trash or any other term, these are genuinely poor players. They may not be our worst ever signings but they’re not far off either.

The problem with thinking somebody might do a job in a role is that...well, "might" is doing more legwork than people realise, and before we know it Gary Doherty is starting as a striker with Son at LWB

The thing with how we've tweaked our system is it had exaggerated players' weaknesses. Dier is probably the most obvious example, because our tactical withdrawals in midfield mean he can't pass the way he wants to and his chipped balls over the top are effectively removed entirely - chipped passes which, while not the lethal weapon that Toby's were, are a damn sight better than Dawson's aimless diagonals. Similar goes for Emerson as he's actually a pretty good buildup RB with his interplay with midfield and Deki, but pushing him further up reveals he doesn't have the attacking instinct needed going forward so always needs one touch too many, which wouldn't be an issue if he was used in a Corluka-like role

In terms of Sessegnon, the issues are further exacerbated by him overdoing it in the gym over the summer so while he may have packed on mass he's still trying to play like he is the lithe (read: lightweight) player he was a couple of seasons ago even though the extra mass makes him that little smidge slower to get up to top speed as well as his top speed isn't quite as quick as it was. It's similar to the perpetually-linked Zaniolo, who overcompensated for losing a half yard of pace due to injury by bulking up, making himself even slower

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

"What the...?" Watch
Matt Law claims that Chelsea are looking to sign Yves Bissouma

We should fend off any bid, in case the bloke who can make him play like he did for the last 2-3 seasons at Brighton suddenly becomes available...

 

[Citizen Kane.]

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Forget the fact that his legs are made of raw spaghetti, the fact West Ham are chasing him is reason enough to avoid.

We are dining in the wrong restaurant, simple as.

 

[Citizen Kane.]

Conte's post match comments are going to go down a treat.

 

[Citizen Kane.]

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Translation:

Skriniar will reject latest contract offer from Inter. Spurs are now preparing a bid of one vegan pizza.

 

[Spurlock]

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[Dier Hard]

The problem with thinking somebody might do a job in a role is that...well, "might" is doing more legwork than people realise, and before we know it Gary Doherty is starting as a striker with Son at LWB

The thing with how we've tweaked our system is it had exaggerated players' weaknesses. Dier is probably the most obvious example, because our tactical withdrawals in midfield mean he can't pass the way he wants to and his chipped balls over the top are effectively removed entirely - chipped passes which, while not the lethal weapon that Toby's were, are a damn sight better than Dawson's aimless diagonals. Similar goes for Emerson as he's actually a pretty good buildup RB with his interplay with midfield and Deki, but pushing him further up reveals he doesn't have the attacking instinct needed going forward so always needs one touch too many, which wouldn't be an issue if he was used in a Corluka-like role

In terms of Sessegnon, the issues are further exacerbated by him overdoing it in the gym over the summer so while he may have packed on mass he's still trying to play like he is the lithe (read: lightweight) player he was a couple of seasons ago even though the extra mass makes him that little smidge slower to get up to top speed as well as his top speed isn't quite as quick as it was. It's similar to the perpetually-linked Zaniolo, who overcompensated for losing a half yard of pace due to injury by bulking up, making himself even slower

Those are more extreme position swaps though, Trossard would just essentially be swapping flanks, albeit some players really can struggle doing that which is sometimes quite odd. I’d just be open to a new wing forward arriving as Lucas and Richarlison aren’t good enough and Gil will get overlooked.

I think Dier is simply a squad calibre player. He’d been average to poor for quite some under both Poch and Jose, had a little purple patch when Conte arrived, now reverted to type again. He’d be ok as the second choice CB in his position as well as an emergency DM, just not the starting one. Emerson lacks a number of attributes to make it as a successful player in the Premier League, it’s not through want of trying because no one can fault him on that but he needs out of Spurs and England as much as we need him out.

With regards to Sessegnon, I don’t think the muscle gain has affected too much, plenty of players bulk up in their early 20s, Kane and Bale being prime examples. There’s been no change in his game since his timid days under Jose to now under Conte. We’re halfway into his fourth season as a Spurs player and to be brutally honest, there’s only been one poorer LB/ LWB over the last 16 or so years and that’s Gilberto. LYP, Ekotto, Rose, Davies, Reguilon… all considerably better. What annoys me most with Sessegnon is that a winger turned wing back should be good at attacking at the least - basically like Perisic, because the Croat can’t defend for **** (last night’s horrid viewing being a prime example) but can affect the game at the end of the pitch - yet Sessegnon looks like he has no clue how to attack, can’t cross a ball, can’t beat an opponent and just never looks comfortable with the ball. His deal ends the same time as Kane’s, so I really hope we look at shipping him off in the summer but I fear the club will try tying him to a new one, probably out of HG issues more than anything but I’d rather not have a player than have a bad one, his opportunities can go to an academy player.

 

[Dier Hard]

Only 11 days left of the window… any predictions?

 

[Citizen Kane.]

Having slept on it, I'm struggling to settle on more than five players in the entire squad who are actually top 4 quality:
Romero
Bentancur
Kane
Kulu
Son (unless the current downturn is permanent)

We have a bunch who are probably top 6, including Hojbjerg, Perisic, Bissouma, Davies and Lenglet.

The rest are simply miles off that standard.

So while I've been vocally against Conte in recent months, I do have to wind my neck in somewhat and admit that while the insipid football, poor squad management, bizarre selections and poor subs are entirely on him, the overall squad is still in a shocking state and that isn't his fault.

 

[Tilly'sowner]

Only 11 days left of the window… any predictions?

Yup. Most players won’t want to join spurs. They can see us sliding down the table and possibly not playing in Europe. The fact Kane may once again be on the verge of leaving and potentially needing a new manager.

We are not exactly an attractive proposition!