Transfer Rumours transfer thread fact and fiction

[remembercolinlee]

Re Guardiola

1. He was brought in to win the CL.
In 5 years he has failed to do so.

2. When he arrived he took over a team who'd won an FA Cup, Two Titles and Two League Cup in the previous 4 years.

He inherited Aguero, Debruyne, Stirling, Silva, Toure, Fernandinho, Ottimendi and Kompany. On top of this he has spent well over £1 BILLION in just 6 years. While his teams can play good football surely winning 4 titles, 4 league Cups and 1 fa cup is the minimum that a team costing that kind of money (along with the 8 players I mentioned) should win.
And to only have made 1 CL final (matching Pochettino) compared to Klopp's three finals with Liverpool is simply a failure.
2016-17 spending £193.5m
2017-18 spending £285.3m
2018-19 spending £ 70.7m
2019-20 spending £143.5m
2020-21 spending £152.8m
2021-22 spending £121.5m
2022-23 spending £110m (so far)
That's approximately a total of £1.1 Billion ... in just 7 years.
They have bought in £500m (£235m in the last 12 months as they try to comply with FFP) so it's a net spend of £600m.


He has bought 1 player for over £100m and a further 14 for over £40m.

I may be wrong but I think spurs have only ever spent more than £40m on 3 occassions.


3. His spending is often defended with ... "but you have to use the money wisely like he does..."
Here are some of his city signings
Nolito £16m plus
Bravo £16m plus
Moreno £5m
Rulli £5m
Danilo £27m
Luiz £10m
Harrison £3.5m
Angelino £10.8m
Porro £10.8m
Stiffen £6.1m
Kayode £3.5m
Llic £2.5m
Palaversa £5.6m
Sadler 2.5m
Busts £5.6m
Rosa £5.6m
Kabore £4m
Coute £5.4m
Alverez £15m

That's 19 players costing £168m who have done little or nothing...that's not a good look for a coach "who can make any player better".

I could add Grealish and Stones to the list too if I wanted to be controversial.

All in all, I do not rate Guardiola's time at City as highly as SAF, Clough, Zidane, Paisley, Klopp or Wenger (1997-2004).
I think he inherited a way better squad, had way more money and has not won the the top European competition.

 

[Spurf]

Re Guardiola

1. He was brought in to win the CL.
In 5 years he has failed to do so.

2. When he arrived he took over a team who'd won an FA Cup, Two Titles and Two League Cup in the previous 4 years.

He inherited Aguero, Debruyne, Stirling, Silva, Toure, Fernandinho, Ottimendi and Kompany. On top of this he has spent well over £1 BILLION in just 6 years. While his teams can play good football surely winning 4 titles, 4 league Cups and 1 fa cup is the minimum that a team costing that kind of money (along with the 8 players I mentioned) should win.
And to only have made 1 CL final (matching Pochettino) compared to Klopp's three finals with Liverpool is simply a failure.
2016-17 spending £193.5m
2017-18 spending £285.3m
2018-19 spending £ 70.7m
2019-20 spending £143.5m
2020-21 spending £152.8m
2021-22 spending £121.5m
2022-23 spending £110m (so far)
That's approximately a total of £1.1 Billion ... in just 7 years.
They have bought in £500m (£235m in the last 12 months as they try to comply with FFP) so it's a net spend of £600m.


He has bought 1 player for over £100m and a further 14 for over £40m.

I may be wrong but I think spurs have only ever spent more than £40m on 3 occassions.


3. His spending is often defended with ... "but you have to use the money wisely like he does..."
Here are some of his city signings
Nolito £16m plus
Bravo £16m plus
Moreno £5m
Rulli £5m
Danilo £27m
Luiz £10m
Harrison £3.5m
Angelino £10.8m
Porro £10.8m
Stiffen £6.1m
Kayode £3.5m
Llic £2.5m
Palaversa £5.6m
Sadler 2.5m
Busts £5.6m
Rosa £5.6m
Kabore £4m
Coute £5.4m
Alverez £15m

That's 19 players costing £168m who have done little or nothing...that's not a good look for a coach "who can make any player better".

I could add Grealish and Stones to the list too if I wanted to be controversial.

All in all, I do not rate Guardiola's time at City as highly as SAF, Clough, Zidane, Paisley, Klopp or Wenger (1997-2004).
I think he inherited a way better squad, had way more money and has not won the the top European competition.

His case is rested

 

[Dier Hard]

Sounds like Reguilon to Atleti is practically done. Romano’s said clubs are checking contracts and then waiting for Lodi to seal his move to Forest to then conclude the Reguilon deal. Straight loan, no option.

Still can’t help feeling this is a mistake but as long as Perisic remains fit it won’t be a huge issue.

 

[KingHotspur]

1. Pep at Citeh has had 6 seasons in the CL.
He reached the final once (at his 5th attempt) , and lost.

2. Pep at Munich had 3 seasons in the CL, and never reached the final.


By contrast, on 1 :

- Klopp has reached the CL final 3 times in 5 seasons, and won once
- Pochettino reached the CL final in his third attempt


So applying Ockham's razor, what is the simplest explanation ??

- Not as good as some claim he is

- A statistically sublime combination of squad injuries +
fluke on-pitch events + dodgy ref decisions during 1 an3 2..

Saying Klopp is better than Pep is definitely a worthy argument and in some ways I’d rather have Klopp than Pep.

But when people are calling him a Spanish Kevin Keegan then sorry but that’s absolutely ridiculous.

 

[KingHotspur]

If they wanted him so badly, why did they wait eight months to hire him?

Didn’t want him mid season I guess.

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

Didn’t want him mid season I guess.

They could've hired him the previous summer

Of course, the fact he made a Balon d'Or ceremony all about how he wanted to return to management makes him look like a douche, too

 

[PowerSpurs]

1. Pep at Citeh has had 6 seasons in the CL.
He reached the final once (at his 5th attempt) , and lost.

2. Pep at Munich had 3 seasons in the CL, and never reached the final.


By contrast, on 1 :

- Klopp has reached the CL final 3 times in 5 seasons, and won once
- Pochettino reached the CL final in his third attempt


So applying Ockham's razor, what is the simplest explanation ??

- Not as good as some claim he is

- A statistically sublime combination of squad injuries +
fluke on-pitch events + dodgy ref decisions during 1 an3 2..

You're being very selective in your data. Instead start with my theory that each of the top 8 clubs by player cost have roughly an even chance of winning the CL. Pep has managed one of those for 13 seasons and won it twice so slightly above expectation. Klopp has managed one of them for 5 seasons and won it once, also slightly above expectation.
Personally, I don't think it is a clinching argument that he hasn't won it with City or Bayern. At City he certainly has the most expensive team but there are several others with similar expenditure who also have not won it. Bayern didn't have a great record of winning it before he joined and have never had the most expensive team.

 

[Tilly'sowner]

Sorry, thought I was in the transfer thread!

Carry on chaps

 

[PowerSpurs]

Using statistics to take an argument to RBDB ? Good luck with that?

Strictly I was using probability not statistics and @The RDBD has not yet produced any statistical analysis to support his argument.
I suspect he uses statistical methodology in his job so is more adept at the calculations but I doubt he is much stronger than me on the theory.

 

[vimhawk]

Re Guardiola

1. He was brought in to win the CL.
In 5 years he has failed to do so.

2. When he arrived he took over a team who'd won an FA Cup, Two Titles and Two League Cup in the previous 4 years.

He inherited Aguero, Debruyne, Stirling, Silva, Toure, Fernandinho, Ottimendi and Kompany. On top of this he has spent well over £1 BILLION in just 6 years. While his teams can play good football surely winning 4 titles, 4 league Cups and 1 fa cup is the minimum that a team costing that kind of money (along with the 8 players I mentioned) should win.
And to only have made 1 CL final (matching Pochettino) compared to Klopp's three finals with Liverpool is simply a failure.
2016-17 spending £193.5m
2017-18 spending £285.3m
2018-19 spending £ 70.7m
2019-20 spending £143.5m
2020-21 spending £152.8m
2021-22 spending £121.5m
2022-23 spending £110m (so far)
That's approximately a total of £1.1 Billion ... in just 7 years.
They have bought in £500m (£235m in the last 12 months as they try to comply with FFP) so it's a net spend of £600m.


He has bought 1 player for over £100m and a further 14 for over £40m.

I may be wrong but I think spurs have only ever spent more than £40m on 3 occassions.


3. His spending is often defended with ... "but you have to use the money wisely like he does..."
Here are some of his city signings
Nolito £16m plus
Bravo £16m plus
Moreno £5m
Rulli £5m
Danilo £27m
Luiz £10m
Harrison £3.5m
Angelino £10.8m
Porro £10.8m
Stiffen £6.1m
Kayode £3.5m
Llic £2.5m
Palaversa £5.6m
Sadler 2.5m
Busts £5.6m
Rosa £5.6m
Kabore £4m
Coute £5.4m
Alverez £15m

That's 19 players costing £168m who have done little or nothing...that's not a good look for a coach "who can make any player better".

I could add Grealish and Stones to the list too if I wanted to be controversial.

All in all, I do not rate Guardiola's time at City as highly as SAF, Clough, Zidane, Paisley, Klopp or Wenger (1997-2004).
I think he inherited a way better squad, had way more money and has not won the the top European competition.

Interesting stuff. I'm certainly on the Fraudiola side of things. Where did he finish in his first season at Citeh? Then he bought a new defence etc. The pundits say "what a genius, he identified a problem and rectified it", I say that many managers can identify a problem, but they don't have the unlimited funds to do anything about it. It would have been interesting to see how he would have done in a second season with more or less the same squad (which as you said wasn't a bad squad at all). As for the "visionary" football I suggest it's easier to be a visionary if you've got the money to buy the players for it. Finally his exploits in the CL have not been devastating considering the team he has. You could arguably call it a failure not to have won it by now. Also as has been said on a different thread yesterday about decisions favouring certain teams, his teams do seem to have the benefit (in the PL, not so much the CL) of committing at least a yellow card offence without it being given. In this case the visionary idea is to stop the play using "professional" fouls, but again other teams have exactly the same vision but can't get away without getting cards.

 

[The Huddlefro]

Interesting stuff. I'm certainly on the Fraudiola side of things. Where did he finish in his first season at Citeh? Then he bought a new defence etc. The pundits say "what a genius, he identified a problem and rectified it", I say that many managers can identify a problem, but they don't have the unlimited funds to do anything about it. It would have been interesting to see how he would have done in a second season with more or less the same squad (which as you said wasn't a bad squad at all). As for the "visionary" football I suggest it's easier to be a visionary if you've got the money to buy the players for it. Finally his exploits in the CL have not been devastating considering the team he has. You could arguably call it a failure not to have won it by now. Also as has been said on a different thread yesterday about decisions favouring certain teams, his teams do seem to have the benefit (in the PL, not so much the CL) of committing at least a yellow card offence without it being given. In this case the visionary idea is to stop the play using "professional" fouls, but again other teams have exactly the same vision but can't get away without getting cards.

You’re right that just identifying problems isn’t a sign of a manager at the absolute peak of their powers. Jose after all correctly diagnosed many of the problems at an individual and team level at Spurs but was unable to fix it.

For me where Pep stands out is on a couple of levels. Firstly his identification of players is spot on - like Spurs they will have a DoF and scouting team who run the numbers and relationships but the coach still has to have an absolutely clear idea of what he wants from players in each position to make it work, because when you have a Pep or a Conte or a Klopp, the coach signs off on every player. Yes he has the ability to insist on getting exactly what he wants but you don’t spend that much time at the top clubs without having serious ability and success.

Second he is clearly a phenomenal tactician, motivator, coach and man-manager. Time will tell if his powers wane as Jose and others have but he has been at the top of the game for years and his teams have always played wonderful football.

A coach should have to earn the right to be at a top club that can spend like the City, Barca, Bayerns of the world. You could argue that Pep fell into the Barca job at an ideal time but at the same time, he coached that team magnificently and his career has moved from success to success there. So his career is obviously not just circumstantial. I think his struggles in the CL are mainly down to him overthinking in recent years because he’s so desperate to win another. He’s far from flawless obviously and his teams have weaknesses as all teams do, but he’s one of the coaches of his generation and his Barca team laid the foundations for the success of the Spanish national team in that period and popularised a way of playing football that became a blueprint for multiple top teams over the years before the advent of a more intense pressing-based game that evolved in the mid-late 2010s as a reaction to technically superior, possession-based teams that emerged from the shadow of Barca and Pep.

 

[Spurf]

You’re right that just identifying problems isn’t a sign of a manager at the absolute peak of their powers. Jose after all correctly diagnosed many of the problems at an individual and team level at Spurs but was unable to fix it.

For me where Pep stands out is on a couple of levels. Firstly his identification of players is spot on - like Spurs they will have a DoF and scouting team who run the numbers and relationships but the coach still has to have an absolutely clear idea of what he wants from players in each position to make it work, because when you have a Pep or a Conte or a Klopp, the coach signs off on every player. Yes he has the ability to insist on getting exactly what he wants but you don’t spend that much time at the top clubs without having serious ability and success.

Second he is clearly a phenomenal tactician, motivator, coach and man-manager. Time will tell if his powers wane as Jose and others have but he has been at the top of the game for years and his teams have always played wonderful football.

A coach should have to earn the right to be at a top club that can spend like the City, Barca, Bayerns of the world. You could argue that Pep fell into the Barca job at an ideal time but at the same time, he coached that team magnificently and his career has moved from success to success there. So his career is obviously not just circumstantial. I think his struggles in the CL are mainly down to him overthinking in recent years because he’s so desperate to win another. He’s far from flawless obviously and his teams have weaknesses as all teams do, but he’s one of the coaches of his generation and his Barca team laid the foundations for the success of the Spanish national team in that period and popularised a way of playing football that became a blueprint for multiple top teams over the years before the advent of a more intense pressing-based game that evolved in the mid-late 2010s as a reaction to technically superior, possession-based teams that emerged from the shadow of Barca and Pep.

I find no great innovation in Barcalona or the the Spanish way as it just mirrored the Brazilians of the 1950's and 60's. I can remember at school wanting the team I was playing in to copy Brazil and just keep passing the ball to avoid being tackled. Far greater innovation came with Arthur Rowe at Spurs and later the Dutch national team of the 70's. I suspect this too owed something to the Brazilians relying as it did on a high level of skill and awareness from the players.

 

[Spurf]

Re Guardiola

1. He was brought in to win the CL.
In 5 years he has failed to do so.

2. When he arrived he took over a team who'd won an FA Cup, Two Titles and Two League Cup in the previous 4 years.

He inherited Aguero, Debruyne, Stirling, Silva, Toure, Fernandinho, Ottimendi and Kompany. On top of this he has spent well over £1 BILLION in just 6 years. While his teams can play good football surely winning 4 titles, 4 league Cups and 1 fa cup is the minimum that a team costing that kind of money (along with the 8 players I mentioned) should win.
And to only have made 1 CL final (matching Pochettino) compared to Klopp's three finals with Liverpool is simply a failure.
2016-17 spending £193.5m
2017-18 spending £285.3m
2018-19 spending £ 70.7m
2019-20 spending £143.5m
2020-21 spending £152.8m
2021-22 spending £121.5m
2022-23 spending £110m (so far)
That's approximately a total of £1.1 Billion ... in just 7 years.
They have bought in £500m (£235m in the last 12 months as they try to comply with FFP) so it's a net spend of £600m.


He has bought 1 player for over £100m and a further 14 for over £40m.

I may be wrong but I think spurs have only ever spent more than £40m on 3 occassions.


3. His spending is often defended with ... "but you have to use the money wisely like he does..."
Here are some of his city signings
Nolito £16m plus
Bravo £16m plus
Moreno £5m
Rulli £5m
Danilo £27m
Luiz £10m
Harrison £3.5m
Angelino £10.8m
Porro £10.8m
Stiffen £6.1m
Kayode £3.5m
Llic £2.5m
Palaversa £5.6m
Sadler 2.5m
Busts £5.6m
Rosa £5.6m
Kabore £4m
Coute £5.4m
Alverez £15m

That's 19 players costing £168m who have done little or nothing...that's not a good look for a coach "who can make any player better".

I could add Grealish and Stones to the list too if I wanted to be controversial.

All in all, I do not rate Guardiola's time at City as highly as SAF, Clough, Zidane, Paisley, Klopp or Wenger (1997-2004).
I think he inherited a way better squad, had way more money and has not won the the top European competition.

Brilliant post

 

[The Huddlefro]

I find no great innovation in Barcalona or the the Spanish way as just it mirrored the Brazilians of the 1950's and 60's. I can remember at school wanting the team I was playing in to copy Brazil and just keep passing the ball to avoid being tackled. Far greater innovation came with Arthur Rowe at Spurs and later the Dutch national team of the 70's. I suspect this too owed something to the Brazilians relying as it did on a high level of skill and awareness from the players.

Everything is an evolution of course. Pep’s football evolved from Cruyff’s principles and you can go back from there. I don’t think you can argue he’s entirely an original thinker, because who is? Nobody’s ideas exist purely in isolation. But his influence on the evolution of the modern game is clear IMO.

Has he failed at City? His domestic success is unquestionable. But the CL has eluded him. But it’s the hardest competition to win in football. City have spent a lot though and the owners might have expected the CL in return though. As for his transfer dealings, City have had success and failures as have every team. I think it’s fair to say that most of the big signings have been hits and some of the punts haven’t come off. I don’t know how the stats look on that compared to other top clubs. I think it’s also legitimate to question how many of the small-ticket signings are club buys for City Group and how many are actual immediate pieces of the puzzle.

 

[Roo]

Re Guardiola

1. He was brought in to win the CL.
In 5 years he has failed to do so.

2. When he arrived he took over a team who'd won an FA Cup, Two Titles and Two League Cup in the previous 4 years.

He inherited Aguero, Debruyne, Stirling, Silva, Toure, Fernandinho, Ottimendi and Kompany. On top of this he has spent well over £1 BILLION in just 6 years. While his teams can play good football surely winning 4 titles, 4 league Cups and 1 fa cup is the minimum that a team costing that kind of money (along with the 8 players I mentioned) should win.
And to only have made 1 CL final (matching Pochettino) compared to Klopp's three finals with Liverpool is simply a failure.
2016-17 spending £193.5m
2017-18 spending £285.3m
2018-19 spending £ 70.7m
2019-20 spending £143.5m
2020-21 spending £152.8m
2021-22 spending £121.5m
2022-23 spending £110m (so far)
That's approximately a total of £1.1 Billion ... in just 7 years.
They have bought in £500m (£235m in the last 12 months as they try to comply with FFP) so it's a net spend of £600m.


He has bought 1 player for over £100m and a further 14 for over £40m.

I may be wrong but I think spurs have only ever spent more than £40m on 3 occassions.


3. His spending is often defended with ... "but you have to use the money wisely like he does..."
Here are some of his city signings
Nolito £16m plus
Bravo £16m plus
Moreno £5m
Rulli £5m
Danilo £27m
Luiz £10m
Harrison £3.5m
Angelino £10.8m
Porro £10.8m
Stiffen £6.1m
Kayode £3.5m
Llic £2.5m
Palaversa £5.6m
Sadler 2.5m
Busts £5.6m
Rosa £5.6m
Kabore £4m
Coute £5.4m
Alverez £15m

That's 19 players costing £168m who have done little or nothing...that's not a good look for a coach "who can make any player better".

I could add Grealish and Stones to the list too if I wanted to be controversial.

All in all, I do not rate Guardiola's time at City as highly as SAF, Clough, Zidane, Paisley, Klopp or Wenger (1997-2004).
I think he inherited a way better squad, had way more money and has not won the the top European competition.

great post.

with regards to point “3”…. £168m on players that most fans wouldn’t even have heard of! I honestly don’t know 16-17 of those you’ve named.

It’s like a Levy “N’Koudou-bargain-basement” transfer policy that’s got massively out of hand

 

[Citizen Kane.]

One thing that is peculiar about City's CL record is how many of their defeats have been to teams demonstrably weaker than them, often against domestic rivals who they have vastly outperformed that season in the league. Losing to Liverpool and Madrid is one thing, but defeats to Monaco, Lyon, us and Chelsea simply should not have happened.

 

[Spurf]

Everything is an evolution of course. Pep’s football evolved from Cruyff’s principles and you can go back from there. I don’t think you can argue he’s entirely an original thinker, because who is? Nobody’s ideas exist purely in isolation. But his influence on the evolution of the modern game is clear IMO.

Has he failed at City? His domestic success is unquestionable. But the CL has eluded him. But it’s the hardest competition to win in football. City have spent a lot though and the owners might have expected the CL in return though. As for his transfer dealings, City have had success and failures as have every team. I think it’s fair to say that most of the big signings have been hits and some of the punts haven’t come off. I don’t know how the stats look on that compared to other top clubs. I think it’s also legitimate to question how many of the small-ticket signings are club buys for City Group and how many are actual immediate pieces of the puzzle.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he has not done well in the game, of course he has but RCL's list of managers who many of us would consider great does not include Guardiola. Of current managers I think Klop, Conte, Mourinhio, and Ancelotti all have more impressive CVs.

 

[Spurf]

One thing that is peculiar about City's CL record is how many of their defeats have been to teams demonstrably weaker than them, often against domestic rivals who they have vastly outperformed that season in the league. Losing to Liverpool and Madrid is one thing, but defeats to Monaco, Lyon, us and Chelsea simply should not have happened.

I wouldn't hold that against him as it's in the nature of football to lose unexpectedly. As you point out it's the overall league performance over a season that indicates the strength.

 

[The Huddlefro]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that he has not done well in the game, of course he has but RCL's list of managers who many of us would consider great does not include Guardiola. Of current managers I think Klop, Conte, Mourinhio, and Ancelotti all have more impressive CVs.

I would put Pep up there with them personally but I understand the argument for those who disagree. I do think he moans a lot and can be a hypocrite but he’s far from alone in that amongst elite managers. I understand the argument but don’t agree with it, so happy to leave it there as I doubt anyone is changing their mind

 

[crackerman jack]

Some excellent posts and a great debate and I can see both sides of the argument. This is what makes the Spurs board the best on Not606, and the best forum that there is ,as there are so many articulate posters it makes for a great read. Especially when on holiday as I am now!