Daily Racing Thread Saturday 7th. May 2022

[attivo]

Saturday's Meetings

Nottingham
Flat 7 Races 1:00-4:30p.m.
Haydock
Mixed 8 Races 1:20-5:18p.m.
Lingfield
Flat 7 Races 1:30-5:00p.m.
Naas
Flat 8 Races 1:40-5:35p.m.
Ascot
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:15p.m.
Hexham
N/H 7 Races 1:55-5:20p.m.
Cork
N/H 7 Races 2:00-5:25p.m.
Warwick(E)
N/H 7 Races 5:10-8:20p.m.
Thirsk(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:30-8:35p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

Hello, crew. Hope everyone on the well side of well.

Just the one note, from me, re tomorrow's racing. But I feel this old girl could climb the ranks this term.

Strawberri (3.30 Ascot) - my regular readers may recall (or they may not) that this filly was one of my faves from last term. The daughter of Gleneagles won 2 of her 6 starts as a 3YO and begins this season perched on 83. I think that remains a most attractive mark and am greatly looking forward to Strawberri's seasonal bow. The old girl also has the breeding to scale the heights as she is a half-sister to 3 black type performers (an aim, later in the campaign, they must surely have re Strawberri).

Good luck all.

 

[Grade One]

4.40 Ascot-Twisted Reality

Am fascinated to see how she will go under a new trainer

Each Way @ 10-1 [Bet 365]

 

[LG]

Hoping for a 1-2 in the 14.40 at Lingfield, Walk of Stars and his stablemate Natural World

 

[Pilgrim]

Three small (and speculative) e/w bets

Haydock
14,25 Romeo Brown 20/1 e/w five places, 18/1 sky six places
15,00 Miss Heritage 16/1 e/w WH and bet 365 five places, sky 14/1 six places

Ascot
16,05 Start Of Orion 25/1 e/w seven places, sky 22/1 eight places

 

[OddDog]

The Swinton Hurdle is typically competitive and this is only a tentative e/w shout, but I think Peltwell can run a big race at rewarding odds. Having completed the 7-timer in effortless style at Southwell in December she was given a break, returning last month at Haydock over 2m 3f in the Mares Series Final. Despite running freely she was still going well turning in but started to tire badly thereafter and unseated 2 out. That ought to have taken some of the freshness out of her and the drop back to 2 miles will suit her today.

 

[rudebwoy]

Is the haydock event the only mixed card in the uk calendar ?im sure there was one at sandown before ?
Personally i think they are a great thing , wish there was more ,

 

[OddDog]

Is the haydock event the only mixed card in the uk calendar ?im sure there was one at sandown before ?
Personally i think they are a great thing , wish there was more ,

I believe it is rudey. Sandown used to have a mixed card with the old Whitbread Gold Cup on the same day as the Classic Trial but they moved that to a 2-day fixture (flat Friday, jumps Saturday) several years ago.

 

[rudebwoy]

I believe it is rudey. Sandown used to have a mixed card with the old Whitbread Gold Cup on the same day as the Classic Trial but they moved that to a 2-day fixture (flat Friday, jumps Saturday) several years ago.

i thought i was that card , real shame , i don’t get why there aren’t more , the irish have loads .

 

[Grade One]

4.40 Ascot-Twisted Reality

Am fascinated to see how she will go under a new trainer

Each Way @ 10-1 [Bet 365]

Non Runner [going]

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

Luxembourg out to 6/1 then for the Derby.

Question of the day then must be if you owned an 'arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrf decent 3YO colt (or indeed filly) and were in the privileged position of being able to afford £85k (the entrance, or supp, fee) would you put your animal in the big 'un. You do have to wonder, as more and more Derby contenders either fall by the old wayside or have Doubts with a capital 'D' cast over them, if this will lead to a wodge of supp entries closer to the big day.

The one I wonder about is Cresta. Thought he ran a blinder in the Dee on Thursday. Nothing went right for the old boy in the race but he still finished a, relatively, close 2nd. On breeding you would have doubts about 12 furlongs but at Chester Cresta certainly wasn't stopping over 10.5 furlongs. So Cresta, ho-ho-ho, will he run?!?

 

[SwanHills]

I believe it is rudey. Sandown used to have a mixed card with the old Whitbread Gold Cup on the same day as the Classic Trial but they moved that to a 2-day fixture (flat Friday, jumps Saturday) several years ago.

Absolutely right, Oddy, Whitbread Gold Cup day was a great day out, especially for the locals!, even if one was skint after racing. Walk back along the Portsmouth Road from Esher to Kingston, and home for a cuppa! About a 3-mile walk, but time enough to reflect on why winners were missed!

 

[QuarterMoonII]

It is very hard to summon up any enthusiasm for today’s Classic trials at Lingfield on what looks a disappointing card of small fields.

Just four face the starter in the Derby Trial at 2:40 and two of them come from the Appleby barn. Last year’s Derby winner was beaten in this race, so why would anybody back Walk Of Stars at odds on when it beat just two rivals to win last time? The Frankel colt Natural World won his only start at Newbury but that tells us little. The form pick here is United Nations, fourth in the Listed Blue Riband Trial at Epsom behind Appleby runner Nahanni, so he surely knows the value of that form. The other runner Zechariah was last in the Craven, also won by an Appleby runner.

Whilst numerically superior, the nine runner Oaks Trial at 3:15 really looks to resolve around one horse: Aidan O’Brien’s Emily Dickinson. The fact that Ryan Moore is there today suggests that she is thought to be better than her bare form, a Naas maiden race win from three starts. The Gosden barn is represented by Belt Buckle, victorious in her only start at Wolverhampton, whilst Rogue Millennium also won her only start for Tom Clover. In a race with little in the way of useful form to go on, George Boughey’s Mystic Wells is the top rated on Timeform after making all in a six runner Brighton handicap last time. At the prices this looks like a race just to watch in the hope that it throws up an actual Oaks contender.

Ironically, the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes (3:50) is worth less than the Listed Derby Trial but more than the Listed Oaks Trial. Is that sexism by the BHA? With eight set to face the starter, the front two in the betting make most appeal as She Do beat Chocoya (fourth) in a Listed race at HQ last October; however, that was a blanket finish and it is hard to be enthusiastic about the Varian filly at 5/2 when the Richard Hannon filly Symphony Perfect is race fit from a Listed race at Chelmsford and has a similar profile, winning a HQ Listed race last October but she is only a three year old.

Over at Ascot, there are a couple of big field handicaps but I prefer more reasonable size fields. In the Listed race at 2:20 just six face the starter and on the ratings Al Aasy is the clear favourite. At times in his career he has looked like a world beater but then when tried in better quality races he has disappointed. I think he is beatable today as his winning form in small field races like this has generally been on easy ground where he has been allowed to sit at the back and pick off inferior rivals to win easily. The Dettori/Gosden combination is represented by Stowell, race fit from a third in the John Porter and third in last year’s Queen’s Vase. However, I think that last year’s Lingfield Derby Trial winner THIRD REALM (subsequently a well beaten fifth at Epsom), from an in-form Varian yard, might be worth another chance as he ran respectably in defeat in the Gordon Stakes and the Prix Dollar. The problem with this race is the pace angle: will Dettori try to set the fractions (and steal it)?

 

[QuarterMoonII]

Tonight sees the 148th running of the “Run For The Roses”, where currently 20 are due to line up. The Morning Line betting is over-round at 135 per cent with six horses 20/1 and seven 30/1. Only three runners are at single figure odds: 3/1 favourite Zandon; 7/2 chance Epicenter and 8/1 chance Messier.

Messier was beaten by stablemate Taiba (12/1) in the Santa Anita Derby where favourite Forbidden Kingdom tried to make all and the winner ran down the second favourite to win eased down with the pair well clear. I cannot see why Messier should reverse that form. Zandon won the Blue Grass at Keeneland beating favourite Smile Happy (20/1) having sat close to the pace and quickening in the straight. Mo Donegal (10/1) won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and none of the vanquished that day are re-opposing, Todd Pletcher’s colt coming from a long way off the pace that day to run down Early Voting, with the front two well clear.

Tiz The Bomb (30/1) was favourite when he beat Tawny Port (30/1) in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. Tawny Port subsequently won the Lexington at Keeneland, coming from well off the pace in a scrappy race and the betting would suggest that either of these winning would be a big upset.

EPICENTER won the Louisiana Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen, who has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, beating market rival Zozos (20/1) comfortably coming off close to the pace. That Fair Grounds race has produced two Derby winners in the last 20 years and a couple of other American Classic winners. In his previous race he made all to beat favourite Smile Happy, Zandon and Pioneer of Medina (30/1) in the Risen Star Stakes easily. He is the only horse to have won two Derby qualification races and topped the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ table with 64 points. As he is quite amenable tactically, I think he will open the Asmussen Churchill Downs account tonight.

 

[QuarterMoonII]

Luxembourg out to 6/1 then for the Derby.

Question of the day then must be if you owned an 'arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrf decent 3YO colt (or indeed filly) and were in the privileged position of being able to afford £85k (the entrance, or supp, fee) would you put your animal in the big 'un. You do have to wonder, as more and more Derby contenders either fall by the old wayside or have Doubts with a capital 'D' cast over them, if this will lead to a wodge of supp entries closer to the big day.

The one I wonder about is Cresta. Thought he ran a blinder in the Dee on Thursday. Nothing went right for the old boy in the race but he still finished a, relatively, close 2nd. On breeding you would have doubts about 12 furlongs but at Chester Cresta certainly wasn't stopping over 10.5 furlongs. So Cresta, ho-ho-ho, will he run?!?

It is an interesting point that you make today, given that it just happens to be Kentucky Derby day across The Pond. You cannot just pay your entry fee and show up at Churchill Downs but your horse has to run in one of the (many) qualification races and earn points. If too many horses want to run on the first Saturday in May then how many points you have becomes a factor.

We are quite used to the Derby featuring a number of horses at ridiculous prices and of course in recent times when Ballydoyle has no seriously fancied contender they have run five or six, several of which have won nothing more than Dundalk maiden races but have flash pedigrees.

Why do the BHA not instigate a points system here that could include the principle Derby trials (and mile Classics) here, in Ireland and in France? Better still, why not have more races like the Epsom trial that reward the victor with a Derby entry?

 

[SwanHills]

13:45 Ascot - Juan De Montalban

Hopeful will run a decent race in the opener at Ascot today, a Class-3 Handicap over a distance just short of 1-1/2 miles. Dan Tudhope rides for the Kevin P. de Frey yard. 7/1 best price atm, still available in a few places.

Good luck today folks!

 

[GOLDBONES]

13:45 Ascot - Juan De Montalban

Hopeful will run a decent race in the opener at Ascot today, a Class-3 Handicap over a distance just short of 1-1/2 miles. Dan Tudhope rides for the Kevin P. de Frey yard. 7/1 best price atm, still available in a few places.

Good luck today folks!

Get in there Swanny

 

[Pilgrim]

13:45 Ascot - Juan De Montalban

Hopeful will run a decent race in the opener at Ascot today, a Class-3 Handicap over a distance just short of 1-1/2 miles. Dan Tudhope rides for the Kevin P. de Frey yard. 7/1 best price atm, still available in a few places.

Good luck today folks!

Excellent.

 

[OddDog]

Well done Swanny - got the seconditis donkey off your back

 

[SwanHills]

Well done Swanny - got the seconditis donkey off your back

Yes, Oddy, as they came into the straight I thought "not again, another second?". A right monkey on my back recently, that was!

(Nice ride by Dan Tudhope, very calm and assured. Don't know the trainer at all, where does he hail from, do you know? Can't find much on him.)