Due to a sort of perverted logic I decided to have a study of the Spring Cup as I find these flat handicaps with huge fields impossible to solve. Anyway, in an effort to stimulate my own interest in the race, here is my horse-by-horse assessment:
1. Migration - tough ask carrying top weight on seasonal debut. Finished last of 7 off this same mark when last seen in September.
2. Etonian - has obviously had issues as he has not been seen for almost a year and is still handicapped on his Solario stakes win - which hasn't worked out that well.
3. Modern News - was well fancied for the Lincoln but couldn't quicken at the business end. Will have more assistance from the saddle today but his mark looks high enough right now.
4. Isla Kai - front runner who saw off everyone except Rifleman at York when last seen to end his winning streak. Tough and genuine but he is up 5lbs for that second place at York and he may end up a sitting duck in front.
5. Saleymm - didn't see a rival until the furlong pole in the Lincoln but was then readily swept aside by Johan. Gets just a 1lb rise for that effort and ought to be on the premises again.
6. Caradoc - looks best at 10 furlongs. If there is a really strong pace he might pick up the pieces late and grab a place.
7. Irish Admiral - goes off the same mark as in the Lincoln (finished 4th) and his trainer reaches for first-time cheek pieces to go with the tongue strap. Player.
8. Oh This Is Us - drops to his lowest mark for nearly 6 years but might now find the years catching up with him
9. Orbaan - been a long time between drinks for this one and will likely go home thirsty today
10. Teodolina - well down the field in the Lincoln and best watched for now
11. The Turpinator - 5 of 6 career starts on the all-weather at Kempton (including last time out victory off 84). Upped 5lbs for that win and others make more appeal
12. Trais Fluors - finished 15th of 16 in this last year but is 16lbs lower in the weights this year and 4lbs below his last winning mark.
13. Animal Instinct - never run on turf so a risky proposition in a hot handicap.
14. Rogue Bear - ran a remarkable race in the Lincoln - totally missed the break and bumped out of the stalls, then got checked by the Cheveley Park horse when trying to move forward after a furlong and plumb last after 2 furlongs. He was then switched to the stands side and must have made up a dozen lengths on Saleymm and Irish Admiral in the last 3 furlongs and stayed on really well to grab 3rd at the finish. I'd mark him up massively for that and think he is the one to beat here if getting a clean run.
15. The Kodi Kid - doesn't look good enough to be involved
16. Cu Chulainn - a complete dark horse in this after just 3 career starts and wind surgery after finishing last at Lingfield last November
17. Mr Tyrrell - looks out of his depth.
Summary: clearly the Lincoln form will play a big part in proceedings here (the first 4 in the market all finished in the top 6 of the Lincoln) and Rogue Bear, after his troubled race and storming finish, looks the most likely winner to me. At more rewarding odds, Isla Kai each way.
