Daily Thread Monday 24th October

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Ardent1965

Ardent1965

Well-Known Member
Sep 9, 2011
1,939
430
83
Edinburgh
Just wanted to put this one up as i'm a bit busy today and wont be around so i only have one fancy today and this one im sure will run a big race at these weights. One bet for me and the safety valve e/w Tro Nesa 4.00 Leicester about 13/2 good luck to everyone..
 
I've had a small each way bet on Lady Elsie in the 4.20 at Southwell which has broken two of my rules - don't bet on a Monday and don't bet on the all weather.
 
Good morning all.

One stand out bet today for me and that is MARSH WARBLER who runs in the 4.20 at Southwell. If he takes to the fibresand he will hack up here in my opinion. A fair 2yo when with Mark Johnston (85 at his highest) he switched to David Simcock and ended his career with trainer bolting up in selling company at Leicester. Since then Marsh Warbler has been moved to Brian Ellison who done fantastic with him over hurdles last season finishing with a rating in the 150s. He managed to win a Grade 1 hurdle at Chepstow before finishing well beaten at the Cheltenham festival. Although this is likely to be a prep spin for another campaign over hurdles I believe Ellison will have him fit enough to do himself justice and a mark of 70 looks workable now tackling 1m4f for the first time on the flat. The 3/1 on offer looks good value and I am very hopefull he can land this.
 
4.20 RV?

I really like Calculating in that as an EW bet, he is one of very few runners who is proven on the track and whilst I would prefer a couple more furlongs I think he is overpriced at 12/1. I just hope they go at the right speed for him and he is able to wear them all down in the final few furlongs.
 
<cheers> Nass changed it. Busy working on a holiday booking system wishing I was going away <rofl> Calculating has some good course form so an interesting call but I can't see past Marsh Warbler tbh
 
Is Colombian a certainty in the 3.00 at Leicester? Not the sort of race i usually get involved in but i am tempted to back him at a short price. Everything seems to be in his favour. Conditions should suit and he may enjoy an uncontested lead at the head of affairs.

He was favourite for the St Simon on Saturday but didn't take his chance in that. Does anybody know why? That is the one doubt in my mind, unless that is they are seeking an easier opportunity for him to get his head in front.
 
Morning all, and what a weekend we have had... As usual the sporting world throws up great moments and talking points and without doubt we are better for it...

Fly on the wall stuff for...
1) The jockeys conversation at Aintree over the whip bans... Ruby IS NOT AMUSED...!!!
2) What connections are thinking after Master Minded's run...
3) The celebrations of the All Blacks winning the Rugby World Cup...
4) The Old Trafford dressing room after a quiet remarkable 6-1 defeat to the noisy neighbours Citeh...
5) The moment 'Mad Man' Balotelli decieded it was a good idea to light some fireworks from his bathroom, and see what happens...
And many more moments in the sporting world that made me think...

But as for todays racing cards it another mundane Moday... So good luck to any who play the crads today...<ok>
 
Whilst this might be a ridiculous selection, I'llk try to explain the 'logic' behind it...

2.00 Leicester: Fairy Moss 33/1

Bred to be a whole lot better to be a mark of 52, she did not set the world alight for Richard Hannon in 4 maidens. Her last run is what gives her such a big price, running a shocker in low grade maiden company, but that was her first attempt on any ground with any cut in it, so se might be a bit of a speedy type, and her pedigree I feel does suggest that.

Leicester has a lot quicker ground today and that should be to her liking.

On 2nd start she was 9L behind BURWAAZ, the very smart Group performer, and also 7L Costa Del Fortune, now rated 78.

She was only 6L behind the very smart PIMPERNEL of Godolphin on third start, always towards the rear so to get that close was a very good effort, and would certainly imply ability far greater than a 52 rated nursery/handicap mark.


Back on quick ground, and it would not be the first time David Evans finds some races for someone elses 'cast-offs'. Andrea Atzeni takes the ride, and the pair had a winner last week, and have a 33% strike rate in their short time together.



If she can run up to her best, I would imagine that this mark might underestimate her by around 10lb+, because there are bits and pieces of form which tell me she could certainly develop into a handicapper touching a mark of 70.

That said, she might just be problematic at the moment and might equally run a stinker.
 
Topclass - first text I got this morning was saying that the horse to be with in the 2.00 Leicester is Emirates Jack.
Stories of the horse being stopped a couple of times and now runs in a nursery, rumours that his official rating of 62 could be a stone or so undercooked, George Baker not against a decent plunge/coup....
 
Joe Fanning has certainly taken on board the new whip rules, aboard Peter Anders in the 2.30 at Leicester he looked like he was describing it to the horse rather than ever going to use it with any intent. You would have thought he did not want to win ? A horse to note.
 
Zenyatta said:
Is Colombian a certainty in the 3.00 at Leicester? Not the sort of race i usually get involved in but i am tempted to back him at a short price. Everything seems to be in his favour. Conditions should suit and he may enjoy an uncontested lead at the head of affairs.

He was favourite for the St Simon on Saturday but didn't take his chance in that. Does anybody know why? That is the one doubt in my mind, unless that is they are seeking an easier opportunity for him to get his head in front.
Click to expand...

Clearly not!!! Still, backed at 1.82 and layed at 1.69 so no disaster.
 
Just been informed by IT at work that "Blue Coats" will be active from tomorrow - This scans websites and web content in real-time to determine the level of risk, which in turn determines whether access should be given.

The following categories will no longer be accessible:

Blogs/Personal Pages

Online Storage

Email (from 1st December 2011)

Gambling

Personals/Dating

Remote Access Tools

Social Networking

Chat/Instant Messaging

I guess that means I won't be able to get on here from work (will it be detected as a Social Networking site??)
 
Oddy,

I don't have access to any of those categories, but i can still get on this site as can a lot of other people with similar issues i suspect which is why it's so popular. I can also still get on the sportinglife site for racing info and if i can't get on the racecards bit, which often happens as it's quite inconsistent, i can get the same cards on the sky sports site.
 
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