Coronavirus: Please use this thread for all COVID19 talk!

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St Badger said:
A new variant of Covid is being monitored.
Believed to have originated in Botswana and only 10 cases identified, to date, but some are in South Africa and 1 case in Hong Kong, in a person who travelled from South Africa.
The “Nu” variant has a 32 spike mutation, compared to a 16 spike mutation in the Delta variant.
The fears are that it will not be stopped by the current vaccines.
Keep wearing the masks.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/...ant-nu-south-africa-vaccines-b968170.html?amp
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Travel restrictions now imposed from these countries due to the concern that this new strain of virus will spread. BBC now reporting more cases than the article from the Standard. It does go some way in appreciating that we are only as strong as the weakest country in defeating this. As long as undeveloped countries become test grounds for new variations due to low vaccine take up and cultural differences, I think that we are all at risk.
 
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Ian Thumwood said:
Travel restrictions now imposed from these countries due to the concern that this new strain of virus will spread. BBC now reporting more cases than the article from the Standard. It does go some way in appreciating that we are only as strong as the weakest country in defeating this. As long as undeveloped countries become test grounds for new variations due to low vaccine take up and cultural differences, I think that we are all at risk.
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Yep, that has been a constant concern.
 
Question now is whether it makes COVID more dangerous. That it's both more likely to evade vaccines and spreads more easily is a really bad sign. But it'll take some time to understand whether it's actually more deadly, and to date South Africa hasn't seen a surge in hospitalization:

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And that remains one possible way this ends, despite the myriad ways humanity has ****ed this up. Viruses aren't out there trying to rack up a high score in body count; they just want to propagate. And if the most-effective way to spread is less deadly, that's the most advantageous evolutionary path.

But it's another good indication of why getting everyone vaccinated remains so important, even if those individuals may not get terribly ill. What used to be known as the Kent variant was believed that have originated in an immunocompromised person who had a long-term infection, because the longer a virus can replicate within in a host, the more likely it is to mutate significantly. They believe that this variant emerged from an immunocompromised person who had a long-term infection. We aren't just protecting immunocompromised people from getting sick by limiting spread, we're minimizing the chances that it will infect individuals who are test facilities for new variants.
 
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thereisonlyoneno7 said:
How is she going to get my AK47 over then?

As an aside and going off topic (who me?!). The first time I went to see her and her now husband, he took me to a gun range. I had never shot a gun before. The first gun I ever fired was an AK47...scared the **** out of me!
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Sounds like you squandered a perfect opportunity to scare the **** out of your new son in law
 
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Talking of my daughter, she has now just rang and is panicking over her 9th December visit.

"Oh that Boris is locking us down again! And I have to wear a mask just to go out!"

Welcome back to the UK daughter...I understand being a 'Republican' (put in quotes as I bet she couldn't explain one republican policy) means you don't have to wear a mask or care about corony, but we tend to care a bit here and take it seriously.....
 
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Schad said:
And that remains one possible way this ends, despite the myriad ways humanity has ****ed this up. Viruses aren't out there trying to rack up a high score in body count; they just want to propagate. And if the most-effective way to spread is less deadly, that's the most advantageous evolutionary path.
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Still too early to draw conclusions, but some possible hope in that regard:

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If this bears out, and if it is similar enough to Delta and associated variants to provide protection, then it could become a sort of bastardized form of accidental inoculation, in much the same way that cowpox was against smallpox. Which has its own problems (namely, that there would be nothing stopping this fast-spreading, vaccine-evading version from getting more dangerous), but would beat the hell out of another deadly wave.
 
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timatoketchup said:
So bored of the whole ****ing thing. Now you can go into a pub without a mask but not a shop?
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I can put up with wearing a mask in shops and buses for a few more weeks, if I have to. Was getting used to not, but it’s never been a great hardship to keep one in your pocket and put it on in Sainsbury’s.

No more lockdowns of any sort though, please…
 
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Schad said:
Still too early to draw conclusions, but some possible hope in that regard:

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If this bears out, and if it is similar enough to Delta and associated variants to provide protection, then it could become a sort of bastardized form of accidental inoculation, in much the same way that cowpox was against smallpox. Which has its own problems (namely, that there would be nothing stopping this fast-spreading, vaccine-evading version from getting more dangerous), but would beat the hell out of another deadly wave.
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Listening to the new programme on Radio 4 on Friday night, the comment made by the virologists being interviewed was that the modification probably stemmed from a chaotic mutation within somene who was HIV positive and that this caused the virus to mutate in such an alarming fashion. I was knocked out by my booster jab and slept all day yesterday so I have not really heard any updates to the effect Schad is suggesting. This news has not been reported on the BBC but the fact that the risk of this virus mutation has been rated as high to very high suggests that this is not an overraction. One point that was raised was that the new Omicron virus is now unlike the virus that originatedin Wuhan. The scientists I listened to on the radio were suggesting a transmission rate of 500 x the original virus and they were doubtful that the current vaccines would be effective although they are likely of offer a lower level of protection.

My guess is that this will prove to be sigificant and the three scientists I listened to being interview were sugesting that we were effectively back to square one albeit we can now probably produce an effective vaccine for Omicron with 100 days. The solution would be made much easier if everyone took up the jab. We will always be at risk so long as people refuse to get vaccinated and the risks of vaccination will always be marginal in proportion to getting Covid.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
Listening to the new programme on Radio 4 on Friday night, the comment made by the virologists being interviewed was that the modification probably stemmed from a chaotic mutation within somene who was HIV positive and that this caused the virus to mutate in such an alarming fashion. I was knocked out by my booster jab and slept all day yesterday so I have not really heard any updates to the effect Schad is suggesting. This news has not been reported on the BBC but the fact that the risk of this virus mutation has been rated as high to very high suggests that this is not an overraction. One point that was raised was that the new Omicron virus is now unlike the virus that originatedin Wuhan. The scientists I listened to on the radio were suggesting a transmission rate of 500 x the original virus and they were doubtful that the current vaccines would be effective although they are likely of offer a lower level of protection.

My guess is that this will prove to be sigificant and the three scientists I listened to being interview were sugesting that we were effectively back to square one albeit we can now probably produce an effective vaccine for Omicron with 100 days. The solution would be made much easier if everyone took up the jab. We will always be at risk so long as people refuse to get vaccinated and the risks of vaccination will always be marginal in proportion to getting Covid.
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Not just at risk because of people refusing the vaccine but by the inability and lack of resources to vaccinate people in poorer countries.
There’s every possibility that we will get to grips with Omicron, only for another variant to develop in another under developed nation and take us back to square one again.
No one is safe, until we are all safe.
 
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Flu changes every season to some extent, hence the need for annual jabs. Covid will probably end up the same....less severe with time and rarely deadly except in those with weakened immune systems...which could mean regular immunisations only for such people (much like the flu jab now). The important word is could.
 
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Viruses mutate all the time...hence their success....hopefully the Omicron strain will turn out to be no real danger. Ultimately the most widespread and successful strain will be the one that does the least harm. Let’s hope it turns out to be an unnecessary panic...though I don’t blame decision makers as they have been criticised for being too slow in the past.

Comes down to balance....if the target is no deaths from Covid at all, life will be untenable. Life has to go on...the target should be a normal lifestyle (with some care such as masks if necessary) and an acceptance of some loss of life (just as we had before from flu, pneumonia and winter viruses). No one likes pragmatism when it may mean personal loss, but life has to restart.

Get us all boosted and make sure vaccines are distributed to countries that need it...and the virus will be controlled.
 
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