Saturday sees the last Group 1 race of the season in the UK, Doncaster's Racing Post Trophy for 2YO entire colts and fillies over a mile. With prize money right down to 6th place (which pay 3132 quid) it is more than disappointing to see only 6 runners going to post - 2 Ballydoyle colts, 2 colts from Sheikh Mohammed's extensive operations, a George Strawbridge owned colt and Talwar owned by Mr Vimal Khosla. In fact it is downright depressing that, once again, a Group 1 race does not have a field worthy of the name. Where is Sheikh Hamdan's horse? Where is Prince Khalid Abdullah's horse? What about Highclere or Cheveley Park? The Aga Khan? The Sangster estate? Lady Rothschild, the Oppenheimers, HM the Queen? Sir Robert Ogden? Saeed Manana? Princess Haya of Jordan? Seems tragic that such a highly prestigeous race can attract no more than 6 runners - why do we think this is???
Joke of a race Odddy. Owners complaining about prize money all of the time - comes to a group 1 and we have 6 runners. Camelot will walk this in my opinion seems a big rep about the horse having went off 1/3 on debut, been well backed all week and Ladbrokes go 10/11. my attention will be on the big sprint handicap at Donny on Sat from a punting point of view and Chepstow, Aintree and Newbury for the other races. Not that impressed with the rest of the Donny card (apart from the 2.00)
It is numerically poor Oddy but could have been much worse.Both of Sheikh Mo's have been supplemented at the final entrance stage for 20k apiece.I agree that it seems rather strange that Godolphin didn't have any entries toward the latter forfeit stages,especially since they went unrepresented in the Middle Park and the Dewhurst,which they sponsor. It is indeed also surprising some of the other big guns aren't represented with typical staying 2-y-o's,especially SHC,SMS and Khalid Abdullah.The Sangsters are bit players nowadays and I think Princess Haya,who you also mention,falls under the Sheikh Mo banner,being one of his wifes. If reputation is anything to go by,we could be in for a cracker.Fencing is hugely regarded and is Camelot,if the market is to be believed.Encke has a beautiful pedigree and his form already has a degree of gravitas.Learn looks to be there as a pacemaker but one could argue he is there on merit if examining his maiden win.The other two are genuine rags. I'm withholding judgement until after the event and very possibly after the Derby.
I agree Oddy it does seem strange, the Middle Park and Dewhurst had quite a few runners, so maybe its just that owners targeted those races instead. I could understand if there was a superstar type horse in the race, that owners didnt want to take on, but this race looks winnable. The favourite Camelot has only won a maiden, he could well turn out to be outstanding, but I would not touch him at 11/8. He beat a horse called All Approved on his only start by 2 lengths, that horse has never even won a race, having had 6 race course appearences. Camelot will obviously improve but i feel you have to be insane to take 11/8, and anyone who actually bets purely on form would totally agree. Fencings form isn't exactly great either, so I wouldn't be tempted at 3/1. Encke is 6/1, and although his win last time, doesn't look outstanding formwise, it doesn't look any worse than the other 2 ahead of him in the betting, so at 6/1 he could be value. Of the rags, I can't be having Zip Top, though Talwer is interesting as he won some good races earlier in the year, and if refinding that form he could cause an upset. Learn is not without a chance either, by Galileo, won a maiden by 5 lenghs last time, should improve for getting his head intront. In truth it's a poor race but I feel Encke is the best bet at 6/1
My regular readers will know how highly I rate Daddy Long Legs and was disappointed when he was pulled out of this yesterday. However, apparently the ‘Breeders Cup Juvenile’ beckons for this one. Do agree that numerically it’s a poor turn out and surely a few owners will be asking their trainers why they haven’t entered one of there’s in the heat. I personally can’t see beyond Fencing and Camelot. The former impressed me hugely, across the county line, at Newbury, last time and on that evidence looks destined for the ‘top table’. However, the latter did nothing wrong on debut and is being talked, and punted, about as if he is the latest ‘reincarnation of Pegasus’. Am hoping for a good dual from this pair.
Decided to check the field size of the Racing Post Trophy over the last 10 years, here the result: 2010 (10) 2009 (11) 2008 (15) 2007 (12) 2006 (14) 2005 (7) 2004 (8) 2003 (4) --> American Post won on Firm, 2 N/Rs 2002 (9) 2001 (6) --> High Chaparrel won on Heavy No "extreme" going tomorrow so that can't be the reason this year.
Fencing was pulled from the Royal Lodge and Future Champions’ Day, presumably because of the going. He would be the one that I would be interested in amongst a pitiful turn out. This is probably a race just to watch and – given the stunning successes of last year’s runners as three-year-olds – forget.
QM,a tad earlier to be so dismissive of tomorrow's contenders.Last years race has absolutely no bearing on this renewal. This RPT has produced three Derby winners and a Leger winner in last ten years.HC won the last time there were six runners.There are still three highly rated colts lining up and,whilst I agree it is no betting medium,it could be very informative. Or not..
Last Ten Years Racing Post Trophy: 2001 High Chaparral - WON Derby 2002 Brian Boru - WON St Leger 2003 American Post - made ANTE POST favourite for Derby 2004 Motivator - made ANTE POST favourite, WON Derby 2005 Palace Episode 2006 Authorized (run at NEWBURY) - made ANTE POST favourite, WON Derby 2007 Ibn Khaldun 2008 Crowded House - made ANTE POST favourite for Derby 2009 St Nicholas Abbey - made ANTE POST favourite for Derby 2010 Casamento The only one of these I backed was American Post, who I witnessed being an extremely fortuitous winner of the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) at Longchamp, which saw his Epsom odds more than double from the 4/1 I had taken in March and he ran unplaced behind North Light.
Nass, looking at that current statistical anomaly the answer is probably none. The Dewhurst Stakes has produced two winners (New Approach, Sir Percy) and the National Stakes one (New Approach). The modern trend towards hardly racing the middle distance prospects as two-year-olds means that Group 1 form as a juvenile is going to become much more infrequent.
QM, what about the three year old trials? I am guessing Derrinstown and Dante are high on the list with perhaps the Guineas too? 30% strike rate over a decade shows how important the race could be for a juvenile and it also shows how sad it is that we are getting a small field. I do wonder if everyone thinks the AOB horse is a good bit special and swerved him?
The Dante would be 3/10 as well in recent years with Notrth Light, Motivator and Authorized Guineas / Derby dual winners are rare as we know but I do recall a few placed horses in the Guineas going on to win the Derby - New Approach, Sir Percy and further back Generous. Probably a lot more. Most of AOBs Derby winners would have been throught the Derrinstown route I would guess.
Adding in the placed horses, there is also Workforce. “Most of AOBs Derby winners” equals TWO horses: Galileo (2001) and High Chaparral (2002) both won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. Since he has contributed almost half the field at Epsom in recent years, TWO winners is a pathetic numerical return. O’Brien has won the Derrinstown nine times in the last fourteen years, those not successful at Epsom including Yeats, Dylan Thomas, Fame And Glory, Midas Touch and (this year) Recital.
