Daily Racing Thread Saturday 16th. October 2021

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Ascot
14,00 Minzaal 7/1 e/w bet365 and Lads four places, 13/2 Sky six places, others 13/2 five places
 
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ORCHESTRATED 22/1 Stratford 4:40
In what is a very average looking horse race this fella is definitely weighted to win. He is fairly lightly raced for a 10yo and the handicapper has seen fit to drop him to a mark of 87. His wins have come off 95, 93 & 91 so he has an obvious chance and looks a bit of value.
 
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A little ew Lucky 31 and a couple of singles for me today at Ascot and Stick’s shout.
1.25 Baron Samedi (win single)
2.00 Ventura Diamond (ew single)
3.10 Alcohol Free
4.30 Sir Busker
4.40 Stratford Orchestrated (ew single)
Have a good day all, good luck with yours :emoticon-0148-yes::emoticon-0167-beer:
 
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Ascot
13,25 Berkshire Rocco 20/1 e/w bet365 three places, WH and betfair 16/1 four places
16,30 Aldaary 7/1 e/w WH five places, bet365 four

Ffos Las
16,35 Dobryn 17/2 e/w Coral and Sky four places

Stratford
14,20 Masterdream 7/2 WH and bet365

Market Rasen
15,55 Check My Pulse 9/2

Good luck all.
 
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Should be a proper day's racing at Ascot with the going good (good-soft in places). No excuses for any horse on that ground and for once it could truly be Champions Day rather than a bonanza for heavy ground horses. So here we go:

1.25 Trueshan
2.00 Kinross
2.35 Snowfall
3.10 Baaeed the beast
3.50 Mishriff
4.30 Sunray Major

Should be a good day for Frankie, even though I can't see old Stradivarius turning the tables on Trueshan and Palace Pier will struggle against the Beast!
 
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Morning

8.00 Wolverhampton-Viadelamore

Each Way @ 20-1 [Bet 365] 5 places

Has a odds on shot to beat but think he is better than shown so far
 
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Astonishingly, the weather gods have been favourable to us and the Champions’ Day card is being run on almost good ground. So this is my opportunity to continue my streak of seconditis into a third week. If you think you know a winner and it is not the horse I have nominated, you get the forecast free from me.

In the Long Distance Cup the bookies suggest that it is a three horse race but I simply do not see the lightly raced Hamish finding 10lb in one race to challenge the front two. Much as I like Stradivarius – and I suspect this may be his swansong (definitely if he wins) – the better ground than Longchamp is not going to reverse the form with Trueshan that day, so I am expecting a repeat win for Hollie Doyle even though it is not as soft as last year.

In the Sprint, the favourite Art Power won cosily last time in a Group 3 but has been beaten all season in Group 2 and Group 1 events, so it is hard to make a case for him today given that was his only pattern race win. Much is being made of Rohaan’s 2 from 2 record on this track but since winning the Wokingham on bottomless ground he has been well beaten in three Group 1s. Nando Parrado and Thunder Moon clearly have not trained on, whilst Happy Romance could go well at an each way price having finished ahead of Art Power, Creative Force, Glen Shiel and Nando Parrado in the Haydock Sprint Cup. Dragon Symbol looks like a place bet as he has spent most of the season on the scene without picking up a big pot whilst Kinross drops to six and it is unlikely they will go mad up front to make him effective. The problem is that leads me to last year’s Gimcrack winner MINZAAL, who has missed most of the campaign injured but had a pipe opener here a couple of weeks back but is accompanied by my jinx jockey.

I can easily pass over the Fillies’ And Mares’ race with odds on Oaks winner Snowfall, back against her own sex. It looks like they have put La Joconde in as a pacemaker so no excuses if she does not collect here in a race that is Group 1 in name only.

In the Queen Elizabeth II, last year’s winner The Revenant is not in the first two in the betting and he does not look as good as he was last term. Palace Pier is justifiably favourite against the improving three year old Baaeed, so if it comes down to a fight between the two how much has William Haggas’ charge come on from winning the Moulin. If there is going to be an upset, the most likely of the three year olds to cause it looks to be Alcohol Free or Master Of The Seas. On a line through Poetic Flare, Andrew Balding’s filly would be the one.

The Champion Stakes betting does appear to be backed up by the ratings, as it looks to be between Mishriff and Adayar. It is hard to see how the drop in trip will work for Al Aasy, who seems to be best when allowed to dominate small fields. Addeybb won this last year on much more testing conditions and has not been seen since the Eclipse whilst improving three year old Dubai Honour looks capable of a place. I do not think that ADAYAR had too tough a race in the Arc and he was second in the Sandown Classic trial over this trip, so I am going with him to confirm the King George running with the Gosdens’ four year old.
 
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Fantastic fare at Ascot today. Every race high-class and tough for punters, so I'll just watch and enjoy! Good luck to all who are having a wager at Ascot on Champions' Day! <ok> :emoticon-0167-beer:

So, I'll go to good old Ffos Las for my Saturday bash (hopefully won't get splinter up honourable bum like yesterday! <laugh>) So, here goes:

........................................

15:25 Ffos Las - Dynamic Kate

(Form gives this 5-year-old mare a sound chance to finally get off the mark with her first win. On her very stout breeding should stay the distance well enough, and ground will not be a problem. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride for the successful Neil Mulholland NH yard. 9/2 best price at time of writing, and freely-available.)

........................................
 
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Pilgrim said:
Ascot
13,25 Berkshire Rocco 20/1 e/w bet365 three places, WH and betfair 16/1 four places
16,30 Aldaary 7/1 e/w WH five places, bet365 four

Ffos Las
16,35 Dobryn 17/2 e/w Coral and Sky four places

Stratford
14,20 Masterdream 7/2 WH and bet365

Market Rasen
15,55 Check My Pulse 9/2

Good luck all.
Click to expand...

Aldaary won.
 
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stick said:
ORCHESTRATED 22/1 Stratford 4:40
In what is a very average looking horse race this fella is definitely weighted to win. He is fairly lightly raced for a 10yo and the handicapper has seen fit to drop him to a mark of 87. His wins have come off 95, 93 & 91 so he has an obvious chance and looks a bit of value.
Click to expand...
Nice place money <badger><badger><badger>
 
Well I broke my seconditis streak with Minzaal only managing third and never looking like catching Creative Force. :emoticon-0101-sadsm

I cannot say that I am at all surprised that Snowfall was turned over in the Fillies’ And Mares’ because her entire reputation is based on that record winning margin at Epsom, ignoring the fact that this year’s three year old middle distance fillies are very moderate. That includes Eshaada, winning the race (just) from a mare with plenty of miles on the clock at lower grades.

I lost money on Lady Bowthorpe this season as she only won when I was not on but credit where it is due on bowing out with third behind Baaeed. Frankie spent most of the race looking under his armpit to see where his rival was like he was going easily but then found very little when he picked up the leaders on Palace Pier. The three year old did prove to be the real deal. Interestingly when interviewed on ITV, John Gosden suggested that Frankie might have gone earlier. I have to say that I agree as I was sat watching the box shouting at him to “go now”!

If Lady Bowthorpe ran to her rating, clearly the front two did not, but I am sure Timeform will come up with some excuse for elevating their performances.

Something of an upset with Sealiway, behind Adayar in the Arc, seeing off Dubai Honour to win the Champion Stakes with neither of the big two in the frame. Mac Swiney plugging on for third hardly makes the form look great as he is just a bit of a soft ground plodder and the first three home were rated 114, 116 and 115 hardly making it a great Group 1.
 
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