Daily Racing Thread Thursday 5th. August 2021

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Plenty racing today, perhaps too much, making it hard to know where to focus. The Racing League at Doncaster does not appeal to me. Like the Shergar Cup, I don't like the format of teams and all Handicap races. Today's affair starts at 5F and works up to the finale over 12F but I can't get interested in it at all.

The best horse on show today is Tarnawa, who contests the Group 3 Ballyroan at Leopardstown. Dermot Weld has warned that she is not as far forward as he would like for this time of year but she has 19 lbs in hand on official ratings and lines up at odds of 4/9 today. Not a betting race for me but interesting to see how she goes today. Joseph O'Brien's Queens Vase 4th Benaud is well supported and may be the forecast horse getting 7 lbs from the mare.

Over in France One Ruler tries to kick start a frustrating season. Second to Mac Swiney in last season's Futurity at Doncaster, the colt has been up and down in trip is a very confused looking campaign of 8F, 12F, 10F and 8F. He stays at a mile today in what must be a shocking piece of continuity for the son of Dubawi. He bumped into a cracking looking prospect in Baeed last time when finishing third and the Haggas colt went on to slaughter his field in a Group 3 next time, earning a rating of 121. One Ruler faces nothing of that calibre today and he should have a good chance of getting off the mark today. His nearest rival on ratings is Go Athletico but, like One Ruler, he has not got his head in front this season. Go Athletico has not matched his best run on RPRs this season and has looked a 7F horse up to now. I feel One Ruler will be hard to beat and 6/4 is probably a fair price.

Over at Leopardstown there has been money for Ger Lyons' Nero Tulip. I have been burnt going against money for the stable's runners before and decided to be with it this time. There are a few contenders but there are doubts about all of them, with Chicago Soldier arguably the best so far with a 4th in the Tyros behind Point Lonsdale. That followed a debut 4th in a race where half a length covered the first five home. Aidan's Changingoftheguard should improve for a debut 4th but the stable has been quieter than normal recently with just four winners from 37 runners. I took a chance on Nero Tulip at 11/2, with some firms going shorter. I have doubled him with One Ruler.

5.25 Deauville One Ruler 6/4
4.45 Leopardstown Nero Tulip 11/2

Win double
 
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LordGyllene said:
Yarmouth 3.40 Fen Tiger

Has earned minor money in every of his 4 runs at Yarmouth and was well supported in the market last time out when slowly away at the start. Worth another chance.
Click to expand...

Wasn't that darts player Peter Evison's nickname?
 
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Grendel said:
Plenty racing today, perhaps too much, making it hard to know where to focus. The Racing League at Doncaster does not appeal to me. Like the Shergar Cup, I don't like the format of teams and all Handicap races. Today's affair starts at 5F and works up to the finale over 12F but I can't get interested in it at all.

The best horse on show today is Tarnawa, who contests the Group 3 Ballyroan at Leopardstown. Dermot Weld has warned that she is not as far forward as he would like for this time of year but she has 19 lbs in hand on official ratings and lines up at odds of 4/9 today. Not a betting race for me but interesting to see how she goes today. Joseph O'Brien's Queens Vase 4th Benaud is well supported and may be the forecast horse getting 7 lbs from the mare.

Over in France One Ruler tries to kick start a frustrating season. Second to Mac Swiney in last season's Futurity at Doncaster, the colt has been up and down in trip is a very confused looking campaign of 8F, 12F, 10F and 8F. He stays at a mile today in what must be a shocking piece of continuity for the son of Dubawi. He bumped into a cracking looking prospect in Baeed last time when finishing third and the Haggas colt went on to slaughter his field in a Group 3 next time, earning a rating of 121. One Ruler faces nothing of that calibre today and he should have a good chance of getting off the mark today. His nearest rival on ratings is Go Athletico but, like One Ruler, he has not got his head in front this season. Go Athletico has not matched his best run on RPRs this season and has looked a 7F horse up to now. I feel One Ruler will be hard to beat and 6/4 is probably a fair price.

Over at Leopardstown there has been money for Ger Lyons' Nero Tulip. I have been burnt going against money for the stable's runners before and decided to be with it this time. There are a few contenders but there are doubts about all of them, with Chicago Soldier arguably the best so far with a 4th in the Tyros behind Point Lonsdale. That followed a debut 4th in a race where half a length covered the first five home. Aidan's Changingoftheguard should improve for a debut 4th but the stable has been quieter than normal recently with just four winners from 37 runners. I took a chance on Nero Tulip at 11/2, with some firms going shorter. I have doubled him with One Ruler.

5.25 Deauville One Ruler 6/4
4.45 Leopardstown Nero Tulip 11/2

Win double
Click to expand...

You've picked a competitive race there in France to be playing the favourite. In my opinion One Ruler is a crazy short price and i wouldn't be touching it. Theres a handful further down in the market offering much better value for me.

King Shalaa 7/1 Win
Harper 14/1 Ew

Would be my two for a couple of quid. Rev fc covered too.
 
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Grendel said:
Wasn't that darts player Peter Evison's nickname?
Click to expand...
More generally attributed to boxers Eric Boon (1919-1980ish) and Dave 'Boy' Green (b.1953 and, so far as I know, still alive and flourishing) both from Chatteris. Boon was (imo) marginally the better fighter, but Green - with the advantage of TV coverage - was a bigger name and a bigger earner, and got two high-profile world title fights with Carlos Palomino and, more famously, with Sugar Ray Leonard. Leonard KO'd him so ferociously that I really thought for a few seconds that Green might be dead.

Outside the force of nature that was Mohammed Ali, Leonard was - pound for pound - the best fighter/boxer I ever saw. But Green was top class and, by all accounts, a genuinely nice bloke. For all the other anoraks out there, Boon is regularly credited as making a brief appearance in Carry on Sergeant, but you'll look there in vain. He does appear, v.briefly, in Carry on Regardless (1961).
 
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I think King Shalaa must have had problems because he has been absent since April and has also been gelded. Not sure when they gelded him but the notification was dated just two days ago and he may still be mourning their passing. He has a good bit to find on form with One Ruler.

I think Harper is better value. He was favourite when 5th to Breizh Eagle back in April and that colt went on to be third in the French Guineas but he was beaten at odds-on next time and then finished last behind Victor Ludorum next time. Again, you would have expected to have seen him again before now and you wonder why he's not been out to contest several options they would surely have pencilled in at the start of the season when planning his campaign.

The ATR preview does not even give One Ruler as the danger and opts for King Shalaa but he has to give One Ruler 4 lbs and his Racing Post rating is 95, meaning that he needs improvement, because even Native Ruler's poorest performance of the season (In the Derby) was rated 102 and that was clearly at a trip that didn't suit. Native Ruler's run behind Baaeed was rated 109 and that is also his official rating now. Even though he has dropped 5 lbs since the start of the season, that 109 figure gives him a stone ahead of King Shalaa for now and he gets 4lbs as well.

I think One Ruler has a fair bit in hand but funny things happen in horse races and you never know.

Good luck with your two today.
 
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smokethedeadbadger said:
You've picked a competitive race there in France to be playing the favourite. In my opinion One Ruler is a crazy short price and i wouldn't be touching it. Theres a handful further down in the market offering much better value for me.

King Shalaa 7/1 Win
Harper 14/1 Ew

Would be my two for a couple of quid. Rev fc covered too.
Click to expand...

King Shalaa could have finished closer with a clear run but that's racing for you. Was worth a go. Harper just not good enough.
 
It didn't matter in the end but One Ruler ran well below form there today. I am not sure why the jockey had him out so wide in the early stages of the race but it can't have helped. There was no kick when you would have expected a Group 3 winner and Group 1 runner up to be showing a touch of class in a weak looking French Listed race. The winner had run at 6F last time and the runner up has looked a sprinter through his career and was tackling a mile for the first time today.

Another disappointing effort from One Ruler and there was no real excuse today. He seems to have deteriorated based on this effort and will surely be dropped further based on this run. Hard to think that he was favourite for the 2000 Guineas for a spell earlier in the season. He wouldn't have won the Burkina Faso Guineas based on that show today.

Nero Tulip was backed from 11/2 into 7/2 but never showed with a chance. Only 6th, he just lacked the pace to get involved. The Aidan O'Brien fav at 2/1 was disappointing in 5th place, with Bolger's Mctigue scoring by a head.
 
The Racing Post gave One Ruler as running 9 lbs below his best on just 100 this evening. The winner was rated 103, so, as I had expected, One Ruler would have won comfortably if he had run to his Official rating today.
 
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