Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 3rd. August 2021

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Good card at Deauville with three Group 3 races and a Group 1 contest. Plenty UK interest into the bargain.

The Prix Rothschild is the highlight and Newmarket Guineas heroine Mother Earth is favourite for the mile contest. Most recently seen in the Falmouth on good to firm ground, the form could not have worked out much better with 3rd and 4th Alcohol Free and Lady Bowthorpe both winning next time. Falmouth winner Snow Lantern was only 3rd on the softer surface, with Alcohol Free getting revenge in the Sussex. Mother Earth will face softer ground this time.

Primo Bacio was my selection last time she ran, which was also in the Falmouth. I thought she was given a lot to do from the back that day and she met with interference, running on when it was too late. Prior to that run she had seemed to be on the up and it's worth considering that she was only a neck and a half length away from Alcohol Free that day. She started the season rated 79 and is now on 112, so that is a big improvement over the course of three months. Ground with soft in the description is an unknown for the Walker trained filly but the stable are cooking by gas on 8/24 and 33% this past fortnight.

Coeursamba won the French Guineas but that looked a flash in the pan to me and even the trainer was stunned by that win.

Tahlie has won her last four races and landed a Group 2 narrowly last time. She's progressing but needs to come forward further here.

German Guineas winner Novemba is interesting, She went on to be fourth in the Coronation Stakes behind Alcohol Free. Only a half length behind today's favourite Mother Earth that day, the most obvious question is did she get as close because of the heavy ground or despite it? It was good to soft when she romped home by more than seven lengths in the German Classic.

The older girls do not feature in the forefront of the betting and I think the 3YO's will dominate this race.

Aidan O'Brien is on a 3/40 run this past fortnight and that is well below par for him. In contrast Ed Walker is banging them in and I prefer Primo Bacio here. 7/2 is a bit short though, given the ground is an unknown. Novemba ties in with the best mile fillies of her generation and the going is not an issue. I think she is well overpriced at 8/1 given that she is second top rated on RPR figures, just a 1lb behind the favourite.

2.00 Deauville Novemba 8/1

Novemba/Primo Bacio RF
 
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In the opener at Deauville Sam Maximus is a warm favourite to steal another Group race from the French for Tom Dascombe. 3rd to Lusail in the July Stakes last time, I had mentioned in my preview that he might out run his odds and he obliged by hitting the frame at 40/1, Those odds are history for him and with a boost to the form from Asymmetric since, Sam Maximus sits at 6/5 generally this time.

I am not a fan of the huge odds/skinny odds turnaround and I went with one who went into my notebook last time. Trident is a son of Wootton Bassett and he made an excellent start to his career at Longchamp. Shaken up to go after the leaders he soon picked them off and was in command. Perhaps idling in front the second closed to two lengths at the line but Trident looked very much the one for the future. That runner up won narrowly next time and I feel there is potential for big improvement with Trident.

Sunday Best looked good last time out and the filly has an each-way shout at 9/1 I feel.

If the ratings are right San Maximus will win easily but he's too short for me with others capable of improvement and I don't think Fabre would put his colt into a Group 3 unless he felt he could be competitive.

12.08 Deauville Trident 7/2
 
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Andre Fabre's Zellie is going for a four timer in the Six Perfections race at 1.25 and is favourite at 15/8. Again by Wootton Bassett she is talented but there is an interesting filly from the Crisfords stable in opposition.

Daneh won on her only previous start and in good style. By Dubawi out of Clive Brittain's good filly Rizeena she cuffed her field by over four lengths at Kempton. Could be anything but this represents a big step up in class and bookies are tight at 9/4.

Oscula has decent form to her name but is getting exposed looking and the same could be argued for Boughey's other entry Hellomydarlin.

I thought the value lay with Pascal Bary's Lovamour. The daughter of Goken made a very impressive start to her career at Chantilly over 5 and a half furlongs. Se seemed to show promise for staying today's trip and her cosy win was from a second and third who have both won since. One other horse from that race has also won and I thought Lovamour was worth keeping on the right side of. 10/1 seemed too big to my eyes.

1.25 Deauville Lovamour 10/1

Each-way treble on my three selections as well.

Good luck today to all.
 
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A real boil over with a 25/1 shot winning the opener at Deauville. Have A Good Day was reversing form with Dizzy Bizu, who was second today. My pick Trident was third beaten half a length and a short head. Favourite Sam Maximus was 4th and he was uneasy out to 2/1. Dizzy Bizu was paying a big compliment to Atomic Force, who had beaten him eight and a half lengths when they met earlier in the season.

Oscula did it from the front in her race, with Zellie unable to close up. If I had a quid for every time a French jockey got caught out by one of our jockeys getting first run I would probably be doing quite well. Ryan Moore did it nicely there. Lavamour held every chance but didn't seem to stay the 7F and dropped to 4th place. I would be surprised if she doesn't drop to 6F next time.

Mother Earth had to dig really deep but to her credit she kept on finding for Ryan Moore's urging. They hit the line to win by a head and two short heads in a four way bunch finish. Primo Bacio was a bit disappointing in 7th place and although the ground was described as soft and perhaps an excuse, the time was only 0.21 slow and that doesn't chime for me as a soft ground time. My pick Novemba ran a shocker and went out as if something was amiss. She must have run a couple of stones below her best there. Ryan Moore looked stronger in the finish than anyone else in a close race and I feel credit is due for an oft criticised jockey.

Later on, my previous selection The Blue Brilliant stepped up from a Handicap win to go agonisingly close in a Group 3, going down by just a nose to the favourite Penja, with Oaks runner up Mystery Angel back in third. It says a lot about how poor the Oaks form was outside of Snowfall, when a 97 rated filly can defeat an Oaks runner up.

No cigar but a couple of short favourites opposed and another who scrambled home, so not too forlorn an attempt and it passed a while. The French continue to struggle to repel the foreign raiders.
 
In the 6.20 Nottingham we have a scenario where a maiden is favourite for a Handicap race. I am not keen on backing that type of horse.

Cambridgeshire is from the Martyn Meade stable and they are going well but form figures of 389 don't inspire me to play at odds of 5/2.

Light Of Thunder has a similar profile with three runs reading 576 but is a bigger price at 15/2 for the in form Clive Cox yard.

Far From A Ruby brings winning form but is up 6 lbs for her Kempton win.

Parikarma has not won since October 2019 but is now 6 lbs lower than that winning mark of 70.

I took a chance with Fashion Free from the Michael Appleby yard. It's been a little while since she won but she has lost very narrowly on a couple of occasions. Not so good in 4th last time but the run before that was over course and distance was just a head defeat when unfancied at 25/1. William Buick replaces the claimers who have been riding her of late and I felt she could go close this evening.

6.20 Nottingham Fashion Free 5/1
 
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Grendel said:
In the 6.20 Nottingham we have a scenario where a maiden is favourite for a Handicap race. I am not keen on backing that type of horse.

Cambridgeshire is from the Martyn Meade stable and they are going well but form figures of 389 don't inspire me to play at odds of 5/2.

Light Of Thunder has a similar profile with three runs reading 576 but is a bigger price at 15/2 for the in form Clive Cox yard.

Far From A Ruby brings winning form but is up 6 lbs for her Kempton win.

Parikarma has not won since October 2019 but is now 6 lbs lower than that winning mark of 70.

I took a chance with Fashion Free from the Michael Appleby yard. It's been a little while since she won but she has lost very narrowly on a couple of occasions. Not so good in 4th last time but the run before that was over course and distance was just a head defeat when unfancied at 25/1. William Buick replaces the claimers who have been riding her of late and I felt she could go close this evening.

6.20 Nottingham Fashion Free 5/1
Click to expand...

Sobriquet in that race has been a significant mover in the market. Still the outsider of the field at 16/1 but was 66/1 this morning
 
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Grendel said:
In the 6.20 Nottingham we have a scenario where a maiden is favourite for a Handicap race. I am not keen on backing that type of horse.

Cambridgeshire is from the Martyn Meade stable and they are going well but form figures of 389 don't inspire me to play at odds of 5/2.

Light Of Thunder has a similar profile with three runs reading 576 but is a bigger price at 15/2 for the in form Clive Cox yard.

Far From A Ruby brings winning form but is up 6 lbs for her Kempton win.

Parikarma has not won since October 2019 but is now 6 lbs lower than that winning mark of 70.

I took a chance with Fashion Free from the Michael Appleby yard. It's been a little while since she won but she has lost very narrowly on a couple of occasions. Not so good in 4th last time but the run before that was over course and distance was just a head defeat when unfancied at 25/1. William Buick replaces the claimers who have been riding her of late and I felt she could go close this evening.

6.20 Nottingham Fashion Free 5/1
Click to expand...

Shout. Such a strange market in that race
 
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Fashion Free travelled well and I was confident that she was going to get there. It was cosy by two lengths in the end. I suspect that she will be handicapped out of it after this. To me it looked like she would give a good account this evening and you had to be happy with the way she went about it. Made up for a disappointing go at the French racing today and we live to fight another day in the battle against the bookie.
 
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