Daily Racing Thread Friday 16th. July 2021

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attivo

attivo

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Jan 23, 2014
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Kitty Galore 13/2 - 6.00 Kilbeggan
Potentially dangerous ground trying to second guess John Ryan's runners and Kitty Galore is also entered for a couple of beginner chases within the next week as well, so this could be either a pipe opener or he could have his eyes on a quick double over hurdles and then fences (let's hope it is the latter) looking through the race, this does seem a good race for Kitty Galore to set out and make all, her fitness must be taken for granted here but if she is wound up to do herself justice, I think she will prove a tough nut to peg back from the front around what is a sharp track.

A decent beginners chase being run at 7.05 too. Very much hoping Street's Of Doyen takes to the game well, but he won't have it all his own way with Tullybeg and Not Available posing stiff opposition.

Have a nice Friday folks. Don't forget the suncream.
 
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The 1.50 Haydock is a competitive looking Novice for 2YOs with a mix of those who have some form and some promising newcomers.

Mitbaahy is favourite in some lists but was only 8th on debut when a little over 5 lengths behind Richard Hannon's Bosh, who is a non-runner in the Listed race I fancied him for today. Mitbaahy doesn't jump out as obvious to go straight to first place following an 8th and it's too early to assess the race he ran in for collateral clues. His market position is probably due to Roger Varian being the trainer.

Great Havana was awkwardly away on debut and finished 5th for Andrew Balding.That race has form since but it isn't very good so far. Winner Detail runs in Listed company today but their is just one place and five unplaced efforts from the six runs since. You would expect Great Havana to improve and the trainer has some smart 2YO's this season but I would have wanted to see a bit more to warrant co-fav in some lists.

Skittlebombz was backed on debut but was slowly away and a bit green. He should know more this time and the son of Starspangledbanner is co-favourite in some lists today. The Dascombe stable went through a barren spell earlier in the season but are banging along on 24% this past fortnight, so there are no worries on that score.

Claim To Fame was 3rd on debut but was thumped more than six lengths. Worse news is that the race is not working out, with nine unplaced efforts from nine starts since. Not one for me, even at 12/1.

From the newcomers Muveran catches the eye based on entries. The son of Iffraaj is entered in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes and you would think he would need to make a winning debut here to warrant that entry, given that the Gimcrack is not too far on the horizon on 20th August. One of the most tipped runners today Muberan looks friendless at 14/1 this morning.

Forgivable is also by Iffraaj and also in the Gimcrack. Trained by Tim Easterby, he is even weaker in the betting today at 20/1. The vibes look bad for this one.

Global Wisdom probably appeals most to me of the newcomers. The Dwyer stable do well in terms of strike rate and are going at 33% at the moment with 2/6 and one placed. By No Nay Never, a sire who seems to get plenty of 1st time winners, he cost 80,000 euros as a yearling and De Sousa is booked to ride. He may surprise at 10/1.

I felt Freddy Robinson held every chance here. He was 4th on debut at Pontefract and although the 1st and 2nd were out of the frame next time they were upped into Group 2 company. The 3rd horse Lusail has won twice since and one of those was the July Stakes. The 5th also won next time out in a minor 7F race. The big worry with Freddy Robinson is that the Pontefract going was soft and he did miss an intended start because the good to firm ground was deemed unsuitable. That begs the question as to whether today's good ground will suit and Richard Hannon said he was perplexed by Lusail's effort at Pontefract, declaring that something was amiss. I was amiss myself that night, having 4/1 in a conditions race on a horse who later won a Group 2.

Conclusion:-

I would probably have backed Freddy Robinson if the ground were slower but at the odds now, I felt Skittlebombz was worth a try. Fancied last time but seemingly not today it would be typically ironic if he were to prevail when the money wasn't down. I think he is capable of better than he showd last time and he carries my money at 11/2 today.

1.50 Haydock Skittlebombz 11/2
 
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Skittlebombz was away better today and initially I felt the one going out in front with him was going better but Skittlebombz found for pressure and seemed that he might win but I could see one coming late with a strong run and it was Global Wisdom who claimed him and won well.

I had made a note of Global Wisdom as the most appealing of the newcomers and he wasn't without support today, into 7/1.

Nearly winkled the winner out in a tough race but only second to the dreaded unknown quantity.

Global Wisdom looked quite smart today.

Great Havana went off 11/4 Fav but only managed to beat the three rank outsiders home. Forgivable fared far better than Muveran in 4th and ran better than his 28/1 odds suggested.

Freddy Robinson ran really well and may do better with more cut in the ground.
 
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In the Listed 3.20 Newbury the one raced winners Orazio and Oneforthegutter dominate the betting. The former is an expensive Caravaggio colt and got off the mark at Windsor. I think he is short enough on the bare form and we are buying into the fact that he has improved a fair bit. It didn't look a strong race he won by any means and at 5/2 he seems short. Hard to say with Oneforthegutter's form yet but 7/2 is a bit thin for me.

Detail is one for one but the race isn't working out well and took another kick earlier today.

Frankella won at a big price last time but steps up to a higher level today.

The form horses are Bond Chairman and Cattura. They both ran with some merit in good company at Ascot but are are more exposed after 3 starts apiece. Hard to split them on official ratings but I went with Bond Chairman. It was soft when he ran behind Ebro River and he was 4th to a speedy colt in Chipotle at Royal Ascot. If he gets this 6F I feel he may be the one to beat. Bryan Smart is in decent form, so at 9/2 he seemed a reasonable price.

3.20 Newbury Bond Chairman 9/2

 
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Grendel said:
In the Listed 3.20 Newbury the one raced winners Orazio and Oneforthegutter dominate the betting. The former is an expensive Caravaggio colt and got off the mark at Windsor. I think he is short enough on the bare form and we are buying into the fact that he has improved a fair bit. It didn't look a strong race he won by any means and at 5/2 he seems short. Hard to say with Oneforthegutter's form yet but 7/2 is a bit thin for me.

Detail is one for one but the race isn't working out well and took another kick earlier today.

Frankella won at a big price last time but steps up to a higher level today.

The form horses are Bond Chairman and Cattura. They both ran with some merit in good company at Ascot but are are more exposed after 3 starts apiece. Hard to split them on official ratings but I went with Bond Chairman. It was soft when he ran behind Ebro River and he was 4th to a speedy colt in Chipotle at Royal Ascot. If he gets this 6F I feel he may be the one to beat. Bryan Smart is in decent form, so at 9/2 he seemed a reasonable price.

3.20 Newbury Bond Chairman 9/2
Click to expand...
That does look a very tricky race, about to go off any second/minute
 
SaveTheHumans said:
Kitty Galore 13/2 - 6.00 Kilbeggan
Potentially dangerous ground trying to second guess John Ryan's runners and Kitty Galore is also entered for a couple of beginner chases within the next week as well, so this could be either a pipe opener or he could have his eyes on a quick double over hurdles and then fences (let's hope it is the latter) looking through the race, this does seem a good race for Kitty Galore to set out and make all, her fitness must be taken for granted here but if she is wound up to do herself justice, I think she will prove a tough nut to peg back from the front around what is a sharp track.

A decent beginners chase being run at 7.05 too. Very much hoping Street's Of Doyen takes to the game well, but he won't have it all his own way with Tullybeg and Not Available posing stiff opposition.

Have a nice Friday folks. Don't forget the suncream.
Click to expand...

That was pretty gutting. Led them all the way around and went long odds with 2 furlongs to go, only to tie up at the end and get caught right on the line. Nailed by a veteran McManus one. She ran a cracker really, just unfortunate she tied up when she had all but won the race it seemed.

Depending on how she takes her racing, I would be surprised were she to rock up in a beginners chase over the next week.

Streets of Doyen out of the 7. 05 too, taking a little of the glamour away from it.
 
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I had four bets for today:

Noonday Gun 4/1 (won)
Raya Time 6/1 (Fell 1st)
Rose Milan 7/1 ( SP 22/1, PU)
Emma Prada 11/1 e/w three places (4th)

Could have been worse.
 
Pilgrim said:
I had four bets for today:

Noonday Gun 4/1 (won)
Raya Time 6/1 (Fell 1st)
Rose Milan 7/1 ( SP 22/1, PU)
Emma Prada 11/1 e/w three places (4th)

Could have been worse.
Click to expand...

Good news, I get paid for Emma Prada's fourth place. It's not much but it makes the day.
 
Typical, picked the wrong Royal Ascot horse. Bond Chairman was desperately weak and the game was up before the stalls opened. He showed some early pace but weakened badly. You would think it is back to 5F for him but he looked regressive today. He did nothing for Chipotle's Windsor Castle win today.

Cattura won but only held Detail off by a neck. Detail's win had been let down several times and she has probably progressed a fair bit in going close today. Orazio and Oneforthegutter both ran well enough and Frankella gave it a good go out front. I would think she runs at 5F next time and she may be bred for further but looked a sprinter again today.

Not sure how the market knows when one is going to run a howler but Bond Chairman has run nearly 7 lengths behind a horse with the same official rating as him today.

Mutasaabeq was back to winning ways today. I backed him in the Jersey Stakes but he ran a shocker on the soft ground, recording a RPR of 48. I suppose he was a fair price at 6/4 today dropped to conditions class on good ground. He ran out a four length winner in a good time. Opponent Fivethousandtoone was piss poor today, finishing three parts of a length behind an 84 rated 5YO who was rated 25 lbs lower than him. Roger Varian's Baradar was even worse. In theory he was the best horse in the race with his 110 rating but me managed to come in five and a half lengths in arrears of the 84 rated horse. To make matters worse the lowest rated horse in the race was conceding 4 lbs to the 3YOs. I would be wary of this race. At the weights today Mutabaaseq had 28 lbs in hand of the runner up and the assessor will need to get creative to award Mutabaaseq anything like his OR for today's win.
 
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