Italy with their terrible record versus Spain with their excellent record. I'd go with Italy too, Spain have got Simon in goal. They'd be better off putting Morata in instead, he's had an excellent tournament for keeping the ball out of the net.
I'll be honest, you'd have to ask yourself some pretty stern questions seeing Simon play each game instead of you. De Gea in that penalty shoot out for Man Utd last month... they could still be playing now and he wouldn't have saved one.