The Coronation Cup has been pencilled in as Al Aasy's ever since he trotted up last time with ridiculous ease. That was a Group 3 race though and I don't think there was much strength to the form. Logician was making a comeback after suffering a heavy defeat when 4th of 4 at odds of 1/3 Fav and was entitled to need that race. The Gosden grey was only third at 15/8 and it was left to Thunderous to chase home the Haggas runner. Mark Johnston's Thunderous had been poor first time out this season and was then beaten 4 and a half lengths behind Sir Ron Priestly, where Pyledriver was second. Sir Ron Priestly was then disappointing at York when favourite.
I don't really rate Thunderous thus far and with Logician not firing, it might be that Al Aasy just had a relatively simple task on the day. At the odds, I thought he was worth opposing in a race where 3 lbs covers the first four on official ratings and just 1lb covers the 1st three.
Japan has been generally considered to be "Back" after winning the Ormonde at Chester. He spent last season as a disappointment, unplaced each time he ran. In the Ormonde he beat Trueshan in a race that was more or less a match in the minds of most punters. Decent horse though Trueshan is, he is more or less a Cup type of horse who probably needs 14F and testing conditions to be at his best. Today is going to be a different task and I would want bigger than 3/1.
Albaflora dotted up last time but that was on very testing ground where most of her main opponents flopped in the conditions, leaving a 50/1 shot to chase Beckett's easy winner home. That was PB for Albaflora but it rings alarm bells for me as being down to the conditions that day.
I liked Pyledriver last season and he did me a good turn along the way. He was hampered in the Derby and then was badly placed by the trainer, who decided not to go Grand Prix De Paris and Arc De Triomphe when it was a free entry with a win in the former race. Instead he went for the Leger, didn't stay and was then bizarrely dropped more than half a mile for a 10F race at Ascot behind Addeybb. He was second to Sir Ron Priestly on his comeback, which suggests he has trained on from 3 to 4 and he is entitled to come on for that,
Mogul is an old sparring partner of Pyledriver and he did better than his rival in the Derby, even though he was only 6th. He got back on track in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood in a race where English King was unmasked as not being as good as perhaps thought after disappointing as 5/4 Fav. Interestingly A; Aasy was last of the 6 runners that day. Well beaten by Pyledriver in the Voltigeur when favourite, I intitially felt that perhaps the Muir horse had shown him who was boss but Mogul went on to beat In Swoop in the Grand Prix De Paris and while he was a bit disappointing in the Breeders Cup, the fast track and firm ground would have been against him. He then went on to win the Hong Kong Vase nicely on Good ground.
This season Mogul ran in Meydan and was perhaps surprisingly favourite when disappointing behind Mishriff. I can forgive a horse a poor outing at Meydan in the early season. On his next start he was 3rd in the Prix Ganay but that was a rare drop in trip for him, after running eight times at 12F and he was outpaced at one stage of race, ending up in 3rd. I think he should be ripe to run a good race and with so little in it on the ratings he appealed at 11/2.
Pyledriver is still a potentially good sort and I have done a small reverse forecast with Mogul.
3.10 Epsom Mogul 11/2
