The Cocked Hat at Goodwood is the latest vehicle for speculation about the winner being a potential Derby horse. It seems that any 3YO horse with a pair of testicles is on the Radar for Epsom glory after a season where most of the trials have failed to provide a convincing candidate. The trial has not thrown up a winner who went on to win the Classic since Troy in 1979 and it is hard to see that changing this year.
Stay Well is unexposed and bolted up last time out but that was a maiden race and the form of it looks awful, with all those who were 8 lengths and more behind the Morrison colt thrashed by further in 4 subsequent runs. I thought Stay Well looked a bad favourite last night and he is uneasy in the betting this morning, drifting to 10/3 from 2/1.
Aleas is the new favourite at 9/4 and is well supported. He also bolted up last time but this time in a Handicap. He had more than 9 length to spare that day off a mark of 86 and he was upped to 98 by the official handicapper. The ground was very heavy at Haydock that day though and he still has to improve further from his sub 100 mark to win this listed race. On the plus side it is soft again today but I don't see any value at the odds.
Gentleman Joe struggled in this class last time and that race has had several disappointments. Youth Spirit is the sole winner from that Feilden contest and I feel his form may not stand up. Some support for him but he's not for me.
Man Of Riddles won his only race but that was by less than a length from a stone cold 72 rated horse. He has to pull off a ton of improvement to get into this class of race.
Yibir was fancied in the Dee Stakes but looked ill at ease that day in a disappointing 4th, wandering as if the track was not to his liking. The first time cheek-pieces didn't seem to help and they are off today. As a 2YO Yibir disappointed twice on soft and got his act together when he met faster going. It seems unlikely that he will be suited by today's surface and he has something to prove now.
Lone Eagle seemed to have high hopes coming into this season but was quickly knocked back after being beaten in the Sandown Trial won by Alenquer. He has enough to make up with Yibir from that race. I thought that the trip might be short enough for Lone Eagle on a sound surface last time and was against him for that reason. He gets soft ground today though and is proven on it. I could see this being a test of stamina and despite conceding 5 lbs I feel Lone Eagle is the class runner who gets the stamina test he needs today. In a race where it is easy to pick faults in the field I saw him as the likely winner.
3.25 Goodwood Lone Eagle 3/1
