Loads of Maidens on the Newbury card and not many betting opportunities. The 3.25 looks interesting though.
Michael Stoute's Maximal looked a decent sort in the making last season and after going down a nostril on debut he filled the same spot, albeit beaten a bit further, by none other than One Ruler, who is nearing favourite for the 2000 Guineas now. Maximal made no mistake when long odds on for his 3rd start, where he came clear easily to score by five lengths. Despite winners coming from that race, the form looks pretty weak overall and his position in the market today owes itself to him then having run in the Autumn Stakes, where he crossed swords again with One Ruler but cam off a lot worse in 8th place. Maximal was short enough that day for a colt stepping up markedly and although he may have been beaten a fair way due to the softness of the ground, winner One Ruler franked the form when second in a group 1 and runner up Van Gogh went on to score in a French group 1. Maximal may well improve again but I think he is a bit short for a colt rated 92 and horses like Megallan and today's runner Akmaam give the rest of the Autumn Stakes form a more mediocre look.
John Gosden's Senita needs looking at after two 2nd places and a win last year. I could see how some may be thinking of Frankly Darling who placed in the Oaks last year but Senita was beaten at 1/6 on her second start and was then 2/7 in winning a race at Redcar. More races under her belt than Frankly Darling starting out last season, she is also only rated 88 and that is 10 lbs behind the highest rated in this race thus far. I don't see her as a selection here at 4/1.
River Alwen is highest rated of those with an official figure and he is on 98. Third to Cloudbridge on debut, he then landed a race at Haydock before going on to be 4th to stable companion Fancy Man in a Listed race back at the same venue. That run was described as similar form to his win in a preview I later read but the handicapper pushed him up from 86 to 98 after that run. That race has not panned out well, with Fancy Man himself beaten quite a long way in the Fielden recently. That calls River Alwen's mark into some question and I wouldn't be sure the son of Dark Angel is going to thrive at 10F,
Scope ran today and may not turn out, so Latest Generation is examined instead. Well bred by Frankel, out of Rizeena who was very talented for Clive Brittain, Latese Generation seemed to be going the right way before being 7th in the Autumn Stakes, one place ahead of Maximal. Available at double the odds of the Stoute horse, he appeals more for a bet. Like Maximal however, the mediocrity of the form behind the first two is a shade concerning.
In the end I went with Hurricane Lane at 6/1. The Godolphin horse won his only start on quite bad ground and while that may have flattered him, he has been supplemented at the second stage for the Derby. He looks sure to stay 12F and 10F on this ground might be a minimum for him but with the stable going well amd any amount of scope after just one start, I thought it was worth a bet in the chance that the Derby entry isn't just a pipe dream. He certainly needs to win this to have any hope of getting to Epsom with any realistic hope
I have seen Senita heavily tipped up but I can't take a Redcar Novice winner at 2/7 here at the prices, when the 3rd there was later last in a handicap off 77. This looks a Gosden honey-trap to me.
3.25 New Hurricane Lane 6/1 to continue the Appleby form.
