Apparently, the average over the last 10 seasons is about 86, which would mean that even lower mid-table form would be enough for us. But I can't help feeling that the top 4 are clearly much better than the remainder of this league, so I suspect 86 is too low. What do you all think?
How many points for automatic?
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33 games is 71% of the season complete. So extrapolating form thus far gives (roughly):
Norwich 98 points
Brentford 88
Swansea 87.5 (extrapolating their games in hand too)
Watford 84.5
Which would mean Swansea would get more than 86 points and miss out on the autos. If this prediction has any kind of validity (doubtful!).
Norwich 98 points
Brentford 88
Swansea 87.5 (extrapolating their games in hand too)
Watford 84.5
Which would mean Swansea would get more than 86 points and miss out on the autos. If this prediction has any kind of validity (doubtful!).
I think about 90 points this season, which means 20 points from our final 13 games. That's just around 1.5 points per match and eminently doable. My guess is that we get around 93 points to get there fairly comfortably.
This unusually accurate article from the Mail sums up why:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/f...relegation-surely-heading-Premier-League.html
This unusually accurate article from the Mail sums up why:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/f...relegation-surely-heading-Premier-League.html
That can't be an article in the Fail, it is too good and accurate.
Pity he didn't do his homework on us being 7 points clear of Brentford and not 4 as he states.
I imagine it was written on Saturday evening when the gap was down to 4 points?
Maybe, but it was the Mail.
7 wins could guarantee us promotion (3x7 wins = 21 points + 70 = 91 points)
So if we won all our remaining home games (7) we'd be promoted automatically or if we won our next 7 games, starting with Brentford, we could be promoted by April 5th
So if we won all our remaining home games (7) we'd be promoted automatically or if we won our next 7 games, starting with Brentford, we could be promoted by April 5th
My calculation would be based on this: no more than two teams will average in excess of 2ppg from now until the end of the season. If those two are Brentford and Swansea then they both end up on 89. If it is only one of them plus another then it realistically can only be Watford who would reach 86. So on that basis it's 87-90 points for one of the top two positions. So we are looking for 5:5:3 ( Not a bible verse) from our run in of 13 games. Not a big ask, the kind of scoring rate that Millwall or Preston have achieved so far this season.
It was written before the match against Wycombe as I read it Sunday morning
Kind of a remarkable stat which came out of the press conference today.
After 33 games last season, Leeds had 59 points, had 8 losses, goal difference +18.
We have 70 points, 5 losses, GD +22.
Suspect that points to a weaker league in general considering that Leeds side would be 4th/5th.
After 33 games last season, Leeds had 59 points, had 8 losses, goal difference +18.
We have 70 points, 5 losses, GD +22.
Suspect that points to a weaker league in general considering that Leeds side would be 4th/5th.
We are a point ahead of where Newcastle were when they had their 102 point Championship season (though admittedly four points behind where Leicester were in their 102 point Championship season)
Conversely does it mean the league was stronger with any side capable of beating another?
EDP looked at form needed to hit 90 points:
Nowich: 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses - 1.54 ppg. (Also 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses)
Brentford: 8 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses - 2.08 ppg
Swansea: 9 wins, 4 draws, 2 loss - 2.07 ppg
Watford: 9 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss - 2.31 ppg.
Everyone else needs more than 2.7 ppg, which I think we can rule out.
Based on form in the last 6 (10) games, current ppg is:
Norwich 2.5 ppg (2.3)
Watford 2.16 ppg (2.0)
Swansea 2.0 ppg (2.0)
Brentford 1.5 ppg (1.9)
Across the season, last 10, or last 6 games, none of our rivals are achieving the ppg to clear 90 points.
Nowich: 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses - 1.54 ppg. (Also 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses)
Brentford: 8 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses - 2.08 ppg
Swansea: 9 wins, 4 draws, 2 loss - 2.07 ppg
Watford: 9 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss - 2.31 ppg.
Everyone else needs more than 2.7 ppg, which I think we can rule out.
Based on form in the last 6 (10) games, current ppg is:
Norwich 2.5 ppg (2.3)
Watford 2.16 ppg (2.0)
Swansea 2.0 ppg (2.0)
Brentford 1.5 ppg (1.9)
Across the season, last 10, or last 6 games, none of our rivals are achieving the ppg to clear 90 points.
90 points for autos is 17 more. 6 wins or 5 wins, 2 draws.
Next 7 games are:
Luton (H), Wednesday (A), Forest (A), Blackburn (H), PNE (A), Huddersfield (H), Derby (A).
Hopefully we can pick up the bulk of the points needed in those games, and not have to worry about the final 5, tougher games too much.
Next 7 games are:
Luton (H), Wednesday (A), Forest (A), Blackburn (H), PNE (A), Huddersfield (H), Derby (A).
Hopefully we can pick up the bulk of the points needed in those games, and not have to worry about the final 5, tougher games too much.