The Park Hill looks just about as weak a G2 as you will ever see, with Alpinista a non runner, that has left the progressive handicapper Believe In Love as the13/8 favourite, shes been a good story but this price is ridiculous after winning a soft ground handicap off 97(92 after the claim) with most of the field not handling conditions, im also concerned that her regular inexperienced jockey rode her all the way out when he could have coasted on the bridle and that was only 12 days ago, easy pass for me at 13/8.
I love Snow and she has done me a few turns this year but her form just isnt good enough to win this, she looks like she will be there to make the pace for their American Pharoah filly running in Josephs name Pista, I backed her at 9/1 last night but heavy rule 4 and shes too short now, she looked a dour stayer last time and shes vulnerable to anything that can quicken up and take a few lengths out of her.
Monica Sherrif was another improving handicapper, she won a G3 in France but that doesnt say much these days and the runner has been beaten in 3 listeds races since, I suppose she has better credentials than most in this race but I cant take to her for some reason and im looking elsewhere, she tends to race handy and I prefer a hold up horse for this race with Snow likely to go a good pace. Also suspicion that shes a mudlark.
Vivionn was one that interested me initially, she has pretty solid form in the book and given shes a full sister to the decent stayer Ipsolini, she could improve for the step up in trip, just not totally convinced as shes pretty exposed and she was 8/1 yesterday before Alpinista came out and shes still 15/2 which suggests there is not much confidence behind her.
The horse im going with is the outsider of the field Dubious Affair, she is another improving handicapper, winning 3 on the trot when stepped up to 14f this season, the 2nd of those was a visually impressive handicap win over the course and distance, it was off 79 and against trees but I really liked it and she looked tailor made for the course and distance, her ability to quicken up on decent ground is something I think most of this field lacks. Seems they had black type in mind with her as they wasted her 88 rating by throwing her in a race against 3 100+ experienced male stayers. She was soundly beaten by all the way winner Withhold but there was little shame in that as he is a bit of a course specialist, in his 2 previous visits to the track he won a Cesarewitch and a listed race by 6L, and he seemed to return to something like his old form on the day.
They might have been planning to ride her for a place but with the favourite out this is now an unreal opportunity to win a G2 and im very confident she will run a big race.
Park Hill Stakes - Dubious Affair 22/1
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