Daily Racing Thread Friday 24th. July 2020

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Last season John Gosden had a stable tour article on the ATR website. He mentioned a very expensive colt called Darain who is a full brother to Too Darn Hot, who was top class for the same yard. I once had a bet on Too Darn Hot for the Derby at 50/1 because he was in the betting for that but not the Guineas and after a 7 length debut win it looked a bet worth having but the horse dropped back in trip next time and it was soon evident the horse was going to be a miler. The trainer said early doors that Darain was a completely different sort to his brother and that he was much more tractable, likely to stay further than him. The thinking at the time was that the colt would debut in September but it never happened.

I assume there was a problem with Darain, because we didn't see him until 8th July and he started off in a Class 5 Novice Race. At £3,500,000 and being full brother to a top notcher, I thought he would be short in the betting for such a modest race but he drifted right out to 2/1 and I thought there must be a problem of some sort. I needn't have worried and he was pushed into the lead about 2F out before coming away to win easily by 4 and 3/4 lengths. It was a long wait but worth it.

Having won at 10F on debut, he showed he clearly stays better than his brother but will he be anywhere near as good? His first RPR was 91 and that is a decent platform to build on but for the life of me I cannot see why John Gosden has felt the need to stick to Novice company today? Again it is a Class 5 contest and againit is at 10F. The only difference today will be that the ground will be faster than last time. On adjusted RPR he has 18 lbs in hand of those with ratings and he is 1/4 Fav for the race.

What is the point of this race for the colt? He is not likely to learn anything about Racing in what should be little more than a piece of work on the gallops. The prize money on offer is less than £3500 and it is going to take a lot of those pots to get their initial outlay back. The colt is entered in the St Leger and if that is the aim you would have thought a try over 12F before a step up in grade would be better. As it stands it seems a pointless piece of placing by the trainer and a nothing betting race on an uninspiring day at Newmarket.

Anyway the bet for me was taking on the William Haggas horse who is favourite for the 3.20 race. Ice Sprite has only run twice and backers will be thinking she is sure to improve and could be well in. It is a pet hate of mine backing maidens in Handicaps though, With a 5th and a 4th so far the filly is more about who the trainer is and breeding, rather than achievements. The filly who was second when Ice Sprite was 4th last time has since run again and was tanked in 7th place when 2/1 2nd Fav for the race and was beaten more than 17 lengths. The tipsters are all over Ice Sprite but I think she looks bad value at 2/1.

I went with Union Spirit who has won his last 2 races. Penalised 6 lbs for his latest win, he is still 2 lbs better than his new mark of 75 will be when it kicks in. He has been front running and he held on gamely last time, with the runner up seven lengths clear of the third. This is a slightly better quality of race as a class 5 but the horses are of a similar level and the fact that he is top weight tells that he is not tackling horses rated superior to him and has to concede weight instead.

I just like winners and if Union Spirit can show some spirit he may land the hat-trick at 5/1.

3.20 Newmarket Union Spirit 5/1

Should hopefully give it a good go from the front.
 
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Few i'm interested in today:

12:50 Beverley - Royal Brave & Bashiba 12/1 both Ew & rev fc
1:00 Down Royal - Repute 14/1 Ew
1:10 Newmarket - Zap 5/1 Win
5:15 Cork - Lucky Phil 7/1 Win
7:05 Newton Abbot - Tidal Watch 3/1 Win
 
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Joe_z said:
Grendel, union spirit non runner
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Cheers Joe. Back to the drawing board.

Not sure if I want to bother with that race now. Billhilly ran as if not getting home last time and the drop in trip might help but he had won at 12F previously, so why win at the trip and then not stay it?

Sea Of Marmoon had won first time out in a handicap but then flopped from a 6 lb higher mark when 2nd Fav at Yarmouth. That had seemed an odd choice of race for the horse, given that she won over 10F and they sent her out over 14F next time. A full half mile further in one fell swoop seemed a hell of a jump and the horse didn't seem to last home at all over the trip. She had faced an impossible task that day anyway because she was up against the favourite Alphabetical and trying to give the Prescott trained horse 12 lbs. Alphabetical was racing off 54 that day and won in the style of a ridiculously well handicapped horse. That was certainly the case, as Alphabetical went on to win three times more, defying new marks of 60, 68, 74 and he is now rated 85 and perhaps not finished yet. Hidden ability you cry?

Given 6 weeks off and dropped back to 10F Sea Of Marmoon wouldn't be the first Mark Johnston horse to bounce right back to form. Dropped 3 lbs to 63 after the dismal effort last itme. By Golden Horn out of a mare who ran at 6.5 F on her final start, that horse was tried at 10F while with Charlie Appleby but was dropped in trip when transferred to Alex Pantall. Nothing to suggest Sea Of Marmoon would want 14F and back to 10F today she could feasibly have improvement to come after just four starts.

Ice Sprite is obviously unexposed but is generally 5/4 now. I think the race is trickier than it looks and Shining Aitch is another who shed their maiden tag in a Handicap. Won quite well at a mile last time and if staying could have more to come but up 9 lbs to 72 is putting me off.

I've talked myself into switching to Sea Of Marmoon simple because 8/1 is bigger than I think she should be today. William Haggas is good at landing maiden races, novice events and modest handicaps with well bred horses and he is generally very consistent. Not sure how the money spent on horses ties in with prize money won mind you but he'll have to go some to beat Gosden sending a £3.5 Million colt out to chase £3500, having won a similar amount last time out, another 998 prizes like that and the owners will get their money back <laugh>

3.20 Newmarket Sea Of Marmoon 8/1
 
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redcgull said:
I had to double check the spelling on that there Pilgrim... 10/1 is eye watering stuff...:emoticon-0107-sweat :emoticon-0111-blush :emoticon-0102-bigsm
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I recall a greyhound from about 30 years ago who was called Didlo and that one used to cause a few double takes with the punters.

My all time favourite Greyhound name has to be the one I saw about 25 years ago at Wimbledon who had the exquisite handle of Lovely Furburger

I can only assume the powers that be were blissfully unaware.
 
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mallafets123 said:
KG tomorrow, shambles, 4 runners.
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Pathetic, of the eight entered earlier on six were from O'Brien and two from Gosden. Half each now with 3 and 1, even then Gosden's sole runner is 8/15 Fav.

Just as well Gosden is in it because one of these days we could be looking at:-

The King Aidan and Queen Elizabeth Monopoly Stakes
 
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I saw Al Rufaa last night and noted 10 tips to Al Namir's 1 tip. The Gosden horse had been poor first time out this season but put that behind him when winning easily next time. 11/8 last night was skinny but he had to be backed once hitting 11/4 today.

Didn't get him posted up but I hate maidens as favourites in Handicaps and I couldn't believe Al Namir went off 9/5 Fav on handicap debut after wind surgery and a year off track.

Al Rufaa hosed up and will surely be handicapped about 100 now after landing his first race off 79 and defying a 6lb penalty that saw him on 91 effectively today.

Al Namir was 5th and it looked as if 7F was too short, a mile would be on the agenda for him next time. He met a colt on the up today and considering he was off for 12 months you could expect better next time from probably the same sort of mark.
 
Grendel said:
I recall a greyhound from about 30 years ago who was called Didlo and that one used to cause a few double takes with the punters.

My all time favourite Greyhound name has to be the one I saw about 25 years ago at Wimbledon who had the exquisite handle of Lovely Furburger

I can only assume the powers that be were blissfully unaware.
Click to expand...

My current favourite is Mickey Drippin Grendel :)
 
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Well Darain got the win at 1/6 Fav but it was heavier weather than you would have wanted to see. The Racing TV boys were manfully trying to eke out some positives but you could tell deep down that they were underwhelmed by the performance.

Raced wide and a bit keen I don't think Darain would have a prayer in the St Leger on this showing and I see some firms have him at 12/1 for that race now. I have Santiago at 12/1 for that race and I wouldn't take 12/1 on Darain turning up for the Classic.

Darain was conceding weight today but he has beaten horses rated 66, 63 and 47 into 2nd, 3rd and 4th today based on their Racing Post ratings coming in. Couldn't be getting involved for the St Leger at all and the assessor will need to get creative to make Darain match his 91 from last time for today's win. Some mighty raises for those in behind will be required.
 
Game effort from Sea Of Marmoon but as always the jolly comes when you have gone against it. Decent try at 8/1 from Johnston's filly and quite what she was doing at 14F last time was a mystery.
 
A couple of horses I've put up and lost seem to come out next time and win when I'm not on, so I'm going e/w on MANZO DURO 25/1 who I put up last time.
 
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