Daily Racing Thread Monday 22nd. June 2020

[attivo]

Monday's Meetings

Thirsk
Turf 10 Races 12:15-4:55p.m.
Roscommon
Turf 7 Raced 1:00-4:00p.m.
Ayr
Turf 9 Races 1:40-5:50p.m.
Limerick(E)
N/H 8 Races 4:10-7:45p.m.
Windsor(E)
Turf 8 Races 5:00-8:30p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

[stick]

DILIGENT LADY 5/1 Windsor 5:00
Reopposes the odds on fav Breakfast Club with a 7lb pull for 1.1/2 lengths. That in itself is good enough reason to have a punt.
If you watch their duel at Lingfield you would see that Breakfast Club forced Diligent Lady very wide into the straight but when she picked up again she was flying home. No turns to negotiate here and that will suit her all the better. She did race very much with the choke out in the early stages that day and settling better would be very much a bonus but she has the speed in the pedigree to take this from the front.
The trainer thinks a lot of this one and has had some serious success with the family.
Breakfast Club was an expensive yearling and his price is based around expectation of improvement to come but on the revised terms there should certainly not be such a disparity in their respective prices. The 5/1 is an absolute standout and I will be amazed if Diligent Lady returns at any more than 5/2, it will be a worry if she does!

Good luck if you play.

 

[Grecian Mick]

On DILIGENT LADY but only 7/2 and 11/10 to place. Over at Ayr I believe a high draw is beneficial so I've done the following:

2.40 LINCOLN RED 6/5
3.10 MR WAGYU 7/2
3.40 WENTWORTH FALLS 9/2
4.15 MRS BOUGUET 7/1

Lincoln Red to win and the rest to place is 45/1 so on that too.

 

[Grendel]

Bizarrely the ATR preview blurb for Dark Kris states that Breakfast Club is the stable number one in the race. Richard Hughes trains Dark Kris and Richard Hannon trains Breakfast Club, so I cannot see where they get the "Stable number one" idea from?

Anyway, looking back at Breakfast Club and Diligent Lady last time I don't think there was actually any contact between the two horses. It was more a case of the former horse wandering wide and the latter taking evasive action. It was minimal interference really and both horses actually lost ground on the two runners who stayed to the inside. Breakfast Club found enough to get up but I felt Diligent Lady only made visible headway quite late, closing on horses who were spent.

The penalty makes Breakfast Club less attractive as a bet but there should be more to come after just the one start so far. Diligent Lady was too free in the early stages last time and will want to be more settled to have a better chance this time.

Dark Kris is actually the highest rated in the field and although he has had more racing his efforts in Handicaps do offer some sort of tangible and solid form. 1 mile was clearly too far for him last time but he drops a full 3 furlongs now to 5F and that is a trip he has not been tried over since his debut. They have popped a set of blinkers on him and overall you just wonder why they are changing two things at once since his last start? Desperation? The Hughes stable is only 2/40 and that is pretty poor, with his last 35 runners having been beaten.

On adjusted Racing Post Ratings (allowing for weight's carried) Dark Kris is 15 lbs clear of his field. Obviously the lightly raced ones are open to improvement but Breakfast Club is no sort of price. The trouble here is that Dark Kris is short enough as well at 5/2 and he is facing a completely different test at the minimum trip this time. The 5% strike rate from the stable currently will actually go down to zero if Hughes does not saddle a winner on Monday and those odds just don't seem value.

I can see Stick's thinking with Diligent Lady at 5/1 as better value but I just wonder if she will settle better than last time or not?

In the end I decided not to play but I will have a nose around at some of the other races.

 

[NassauBoard]

On DILIGENT LADY but only 7/2 and 11/10 to place. Over at Ayr I believe a high draw is beneficial so I've done the following:

2.40 LINCOLN RED 6/5
3.10 MR WAGYU 7/2
3.40 WENTWORTH FALLS 9/2
4.15 MRS BOUGUET 7/1

Lincoln Red to win and the rest to place is 45/1 so on that too.

Ayr and the draw. Well that is a whole big can of worms. I can't bet on a bias at that course and with smallish fields, I would hope that the draw isn't the factor that decides races.

 

[Grecian Mick]

Ayr and the draw. Well that is a whole big can of worms. I can't bet on a bias at that course and with smallish fields, I would hope that the draw isn't the factor that decides races.

I may be wrong there Nass but I've gone for the races with the bigger fields, if I'm thinking right then hopefully Mrs Bougeut is my best fancy. We will see.

 

[NassauBoard]

I may be wrong there Nass but I've gone for the races with the bigger fields, if I'm thinking right then hopefully Mrs Bougeut is my best fancy. We will see.

fingers crossed for you. I wouldn’t worry about the draw at Ayr if you fancy one. First Scottish meeting isn’t it?

 

[Leyburnlad19]

I was on Sticks tip as soon as prices available after he posted up a few days ago, got 5/1.
After a scan at the rest of the Windsor card, I see theres a couple of big movers tonight, could be something, could be nothing...
6.00 - Cairn Gorm 10s into 2/1. Good jockey up too.
6.30 - Whelans Way 8s nto 4/1, again, eye catching jockey booking.

 

[NassauBoard]

DILIGENT LADY 5/1 Windsor 5:00
Reopposes the odds on fav Breakfast Club with a 7lb pull for 1.1/2 lengths. That in itself is good enough reason to have a punt.
If you watch their duel at Lingfield you would see that Breakfast Club forced Diligent Lady very wide into the straight but when she picked up again she was flying home. No turns to negotiate here and that will suit her all the better. She did race very much with the choke out in the early stages that day and settling better would be very much a bonus but she has the speed in the pedigree to take this from the front.
The trainer thinks a lot of this one and has had some serious success with the family.
Breakfast Club was an expensive yearling and his price is based around expectation of improvement to come but on the revised terms there should certainly not be such a disparity in their respective prices. The 5/1 is an absolute standout and I will be amazed if Diligent Lady returns at any more than 5/2, it will be a worry if she does!

Good luck if you play.

Again, don’t want to sound like a knob on here all the time, but the sectionals don’t agree with flying home. ATR have her final furlong at 12.21 which was slower than the winner and second and also slower than the two who finished behind her.

I think the key for that race is that they went slow during the middle section of the race and that suited horses who could sit up with the pace.

Given how the two leaders went so wide off the last bend, I’d say it’s probably modest form and whilst I don’t disagree that the form could be reversed. I think a lot of the market depends on the Hughes runner, who on handicap mark and past performances must have a good chance too.

 

[Leyburnlad19]

Over at Thirsk I like the chances of a quick fire double for James Bethell in the..
3.50 - Stockbridge Tap 15/2, and
4.25 - Eagle's Foot 8/1
Both ran well first time out and I'm hoping PJ is the man to eek out that bit more this time around.

 

[Fabulous Fabio]

One I've been waiting on coming back is Volatile Analyst(Ayr 2:10), won't be of much interest tomorrow at current odds of around 2/5, but going forward I think he could be contesting some decent races. I was at Ayr when he won on debut last summer, was only a 5 horse race and wasn't particularly strong in the betting but won easily enough, even if he did veer left near the finish but was well in front and eased down. Went straight to Goodwood for the Richmond Stakes and finished 4th not far behind Threat and winner Golden Horde, those two haven't done too bad since!

Like I say, no interest in backing this tomorrow but I think will be one to keep an eye on as the season goes on.

 

[Fabulous Fabio]

One I've been waiting on coming back is Volatile Analyst(Ayr 2:10), won't be of much interest tomorrow at current odds of around 2/5, but going forward I think he could be contesting some decent races. I was at Ayr when he won on debut last summer, was only a 5 horse race and wasn't particularly strong in the betting but won easily enough, even if he did veer left near the finish but was well in front and eased down. Went straight to Goodwood for the Richmond Stakes and finished 4th not far behind Threat and winner Golden Horde, those two haven't done too bad since!

Like I say, no interest in backing this tomorrow but I think will be one to keep an eye on as the season goes on.

Also, pretty sure someone on here tipped it on that debut win, may have been Stick? Of course I missed it and backed something else.

 

[Grendel]

In the 5.30 Windsor I see a bit of a puzzler.

Lady Florence ran in a similar race last time from a mark of 45. She finished 2nd beaten half a length that day at Chepstow. Somehow the ATR website states that she is 16 lbs badly in here because her mark is due to go down to 30 soon. Why would a trainer run a horse off 46 when it is due to be dropped 16 lbs. That would seem like folly and could Lady Florence even get into a race off a mark of 30? It would seem a Lonnng Handicap job right there. It doesn't make sense that any horse could be dropped that much for running second in a Handicap.

Anyway, as it stands, Lady Florence carries 8st 2lbs, which is one pound more than her Long Handicap mark. She was a rank outsider last time after showing virtually nothing as a 2YO. Her best RPR had been 13, so I don't know how they arrived at 45 for her Handicap debut rating. In the end The Racing Post awarded her a mark of 49 for that run and that was a 36 lb improvement on their figures. All things being equal she should be fairly handicapped off just 1 lb higher and with the 1 lb out of the Handicap in addition. Any further improvement will be a bonus. Trainer is 1/7 at the moment and although the jockey has not had a winner in a fair while he does ride some really low grade horses that go off at massive prices. Jockey's lowest riding weight is given as 8 st 1 lb so he shouldn't out up overweight unless he has been gorging himself at KFC and Dominos.

I thought Lady Florence was the interesting one here after her form took a decent turn for the better last time. By Zebedee out of a modest sprinting mare her dam has produced nothing of note in from four foals and Lady Florence is already her best offspring with her 49 RPR.

5.30 Windsor Lady Florence 11/4

Crime Of Passion is the other one who appeals at 10/1 simply because she is the only one in the race ever to have won. She has had more starts after 9 visits to the racecourse and although the trainer is only on a 5% strike rate, she is back to the 63 mark she won from.

 

[LG]

DILIGENT LADY 5/1 Windsor 5:00
Reopposes the odds on fav Breakfast Club with a 7lb pull for 1.1/2 lengths. That in itself is good enough reason to have a punt.
If you watch their duel at Lingfield you would see that Breakfast Club forced Diligent Lady very wide into the straight but when she picked up again she was flying home. No turns to negotiate here and that will suit her all the better. She did race very much with the choke out in the early stages that day and settling better would be very much a bonus but she has the speed in the pedigree to take this from the front.
The trainer thinks a lot of this one and has had some serious success with the family.
Breakfast Club was an expensive yearling and his price is based around expectation of improvement to come but on the revised terms there should certainly not be such a disparity in their respective prices. The 5/1 is an absolute standout and I will be amazed if Diligent Lady returns at any more than 5/2, it will be a worry if she does!

Good luck if you play.

Thanks Stick, I've taken 5-1

 

[stick]

She has drifted with most bookmakers and the 5/1 is more widely available now. Its no great surprise as their seems to be a lot of confidence behind the Hughes runner and also the owner is not of the gambling variety.
I would be surprised if the two once raced horses cannot up their game and overtake the Hughes horse.

Nass, with those sectionals how quick was the 5th horse? Smokey. I see your point that the numbers stack up against my statement but watch the race and tell me how many times the persuader was used on Diligent Lady in the final furlong.

 

[NassauBoard]

She has drifted with most bookmakers and the 5/1 is more widely available now. Its no great surprise as their seems to be a lot of confidence behind the Hughes runner and also the owner is not of the gambling variety.
I would be surprised if the two once raced horses cannot up their game and overtake the Hughes horse.

Nass, with those sectionals how quick was the 5th horse? Smokey. I see your point that the numbers stack up against my statement but watch the race and tell me how many times the persuader was used on Diligent Lady in the final furlong.

I knew you would ask a question. Times can be found https://www.attheraces.com/racecard.../1820?horsename=Breakfast Club&raceid=1145461

Smokey ran the last furlong in 11.91 compared to 12.21

Actually if you look at Smokey he’s a really interesting horse on that run. Let me plot this up.. (not as if I’m busy!!)

 

[NassauBoard]

See attached.

It shows how ineffective the ride was on Smokey versus the two who reoppose today. He was slow away, then faster than the other two for the other 4 furlongs.

Breakfast Club line is pretty smooth which suggests he got an optimum ride whilst Diligent Lady has a steeper regression from 2 furlongs to the finish.

That is interesting because the final stretch at Lingfield is about 2 furlongs in distance. It suggests that whilst she did get carried wide, and she wasn’t given a hard time, that wasn’t where she lost the race.

 

[stick]

See attached.

It shows how ineffective the ride was on Smokey versus the two who reoppose today. He was slow away, then faster than the other two for the other 4 furlongs.

Breakfast Club line is pretty smooth which suggests he got an optimum ride whilst Diligent Lady has a steeper regression from 2 furlongs to the finish.

That is interesting because the final stretch at Lingfield is about 2 furlongs in distance. It suggests that whilst she did get carried wide, and she wasn’t given a hard time, that wasn’t where she lost the race.

I had a small EW saver on Smokey at 40/1 last night after watching the re-run for the fourth time!
DILIGENT LADY wasnt given a hard race after her chance had gone and my main two points remain.
1) She will get a clear run tonight
2) She is getting 7lbs for 1.1/2 lengths
Additionally she has no bend to handle tonight.

I am so convinced that I have gone in again!

 

[NassauBoard]

I had a small EW saver on Smokey at 40/1 last night after watching the re-run for the fourth time!
DILIGENT LADY wasnt given a hard race after her chance had gone and my main two points remain.
1) She will get a clear run tonight
2) She is getting 7lbs for 1.1/2 lengths
Additionally she has no bend to handle tonight.

I am so convinced that I have gone in again!

I’m a bit annoyed with myself as I looked yesterday and thought about laying the favourite who was around evens at the time. It’s a horrible little race for punting in my opinion (and that says something after those handicaps last week at Ascot!)

I wanted the field against the jolly, I thought the Hughes horse had shown the best form but the trip was a concern. I thought Diligent Lady ran a big race but worried about her running free.

I also thought Smokey was interesting if they went a different pace on a straight turf course and the two might not be back numbers either, especially if they get nibbled in the market.

Alas I waited and now it’s 2.3 or similar and less value for a lay bet. As such it’s a watching brief.

 

[Fazor]

Kylie Rules 8/1
2.20 Thirsk

Whelans Way 4/1
6.30 Windsor