Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 9th. June 2020

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Leop 2.30 Know It All 5/1

Looks overpriced to me, I think her Weld Park is strong Group 3 form and she was looking like an impressive winner for 90% of the race before tiring late in the heavy ground. I had her in mind as an outsider for the Commonwealth Cup given her pedigree, being a half sister to Astrophysical Jet and by the Japanese sprinter Lord Kanaloa, but shes never been put in the betting. She could have too much speed for these on decent ground at 7f from a good draw.
 
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One for me tomorrow COMPETITION 8.30 Wolverhampton 9/4. Will be disappointed if Appleby doesn’t get a couple of wins out of this one.
 
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5:45 Healing Power - it’s been a front runners track and I think he’s a very solid front runner.

8:45 Arlecchinos Arc - a race with few pace angles and he’s the one who likes the course and has a decent enough draw.


Two singles and an EW double.
 
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Small stakes ew lucky 63/acca:

2:15 Haydock - Where's Mick 6/1
2:45 Haydock - Dandys Beano 9/1
4:50 Haydock - Roberto Escobarr 7/2
5:30 Wolves - Mitrosonfire 6/1
7:00 Wolves - Fidux 16/1
8:15 Chelmsford - Blue Beirut 10/1
 
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Leop 2.00 Sunchart 6/1

Taking a chance on this against the Obrien runners, I backed Russian Emperor when he won his maiden and he looked bang in trouble but stayed on well in the final furlong to get up. Thats usually a strong maiden but they finished in a heap and he will need to step up plenty to win at Group 3 level, the extra 2 furlongs should help but not sure he is up to the level Obrien normally runs in this and I couldnt back him at 6/4. Looks like they are trying to make him a stallion with that pedigree, Galileo out of the superstar Australian mare Atlantic Jewel.

Sunchart ran well behind one of Obriens on debut and took a good step forward when easily justifying 11/10 on his second start, winning by 4.5L from a bunch of Obrien runners. Not sure what the form is worth but I am always impressed when a horse bursts through a gap when it appears and thats what he did when winning. He was travelling well in the straight but had nowhere to go, a horse width space opened up and he was able to take it instantly and quickly went clear, suggesting he has a decent turn of foot. There are worries about him on better ground but hes by Teofilo and I didnt think he would mind it given his action.

Obrien has described his other 2 runners as lazy and put blinkers on them, and with the favourite appearing to lack an instant gear change last time, I wonder if Sunchart might be able to take a few lengths out of them and see it out. He seems to be well regarded and the Irish Derby has been mentioned so im having a score at 33/1 for that with Hills on the off chance he was to win this.

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Haydock 2.15 Dick Datchery

Won well at Ayr last year on good to soft. Maybe didn't suited by faster ground next time out. Stable in the money recently. Nice each way chance.
 
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Haydock 3.15 Aljaady

Record when fresh reads : 1 3

A winner on soft so todays slower ground should be no problem. Stable had 2 winners yesterday. Jim Crowley a good jockey booking. Entered in a competitive looking class 2 on sunday so must have shown something promising on the gallops.
 
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WILL SOMERS 4/1 Haydock 4:50
Half brother to Sharja Bridge went in the notebook on debut with the comment "will be much better suited over further". Up in trip today so lets see if that comes true. I do love a Teofilio.
 
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Gordon Lord Byron died suddenly at exercise this morning. The 12-year-old won 16 races from 108 starts, including Group 1s in England, France and Australia. Our sympathies to the Hogan and Cahalan families. More shortly on the end of a racing fairytale on theirishfield.ie

Sad news :(
 
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Good old sort Gordon Lord Byron. I could never quite catch him at the right time but he was a real warrior of a horse.
 
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Benoit Blanc said:
Leop 2.30 Know It All 5/1

Looks overpriced to me, I think her Weld Park is strong Group 3 form and she was looking like an impressive winner for 90% of the race before tiring late in the heavy ground. I had her in mind as an outsider for the Commonwealth Cup given her pedigree, being a half sister to Astrophysical Jet and by the Japanese sprinter Lord Kanaloa, but shes never been put in the betting. She could have too much speed for these on decent ground at 7f from a good draw.
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At present Joe, Know It All is 7/2 fav (so you were right there) but I can't understand why she is fav. Surely Tango's form is some way above. She has finished not far behind Love, nor Millisle and had a very simple task last time out (I'm ignoring the Breeders Cup Juvenile). By Nay Nay Never out of a Galileo mare, 7f could be ideal for her. Last year she ran well against Raffle Prize so has some speed too
Tango 9/2 for me
 
Ron said:
At present Joe, Know It All is 7/2 fav (so you were right there) but I can't understand why she is fav. Surely Tango's form is some way above. She has finished not far behind Love, nor Millisle and had a very simple task last time out (I'm ignoring the Breeders Cup Juvenile). By Nay Nay Never out of a Galileo mare, 7f could be ideal for her. Last year she ran well against Raffle Prize so has some speed too
Tango 9/2 for me
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She has G1 form on paper but Love has improved significantly over the winter and there is no guarantee the horses who ran behind will do the same, plus the Cheveley Park hasnt exactly worked out well so far, the top 3 have been well beaten in classics. Tango won a listed race but the form doesnt look particularly good with the runner well beaten by one rated 78 next time out and is 50/1 today, and the 3rd had only scraped in off 73 in a handicap. Tango was obviously quite an early type and wasnt exactly campaigned with a 3yo season in mind, her form gives a decent chance but Know It All has more upside this season imo and has already achieved a rating just 3 pounds below Tango.
 
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Benoit Blanc said:
She has G1 form on paper but Love has improved significantly over the winter and there is no guarantee the horses who ran behind will do the same, plus the Cheveley Park hasnt exactly worked out well so far, the top 3 have been well beaten in classics. Tango won a listed race but the form doesnt look particularly good with the runner well beaten by one rated 78 next time out and is 50/1 today, and the 3rd had only scraped in off 73 in a handicap. Tango was obviously quite an early type and wasnt exactly campaigned with a 3yo season in mind, her form gives a decent chance but Know It All has more upside this season imo and has already achieved a rating just 3 pounds below Tango.
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Well you know how good I am <laugh>
 
The 2.30 at the Curragh is an interesting affair.

Tango is top rated and she was entered in the Irish 1000 Guineas but comes here instead. That looks a wise move to me. She was highly tried in 9 starts as a 2YO and was not beaten that far by Love in the Moyglare before another decent run in the Cheveley Park behind Millisle. Sometimes that sort of performance can be overrated though and she has just the two wins so far. Her best showing in terms of winning was a six length romp in Listed company but that was a race where she came in rated 18 and 19 lbs ahead of the two fillies who were 2nd and 3rd. The dam was a stayer but Tango seems to have taken after her sire No Nay Never. I noticed early on that this sire seemed to have a lot of progeny who failed to progress much from winning starts and on balance I want to take Tango on today.

A New Dawn had fair pieces of form last season and she is one of the highest rated in the field with an official rating of 102. For me, her best two runs cam on heavy/soft ground and it is much faster today. Stable form is a question mark and I'll pass on this filly today.

Johnny Murtagh is hard to assess on form because he has only had three runners and all of those were no-hopers yesterday. Know It All is sired by a Japanese sprint king and his best to date is the famous Almond Eye. She probably floundered on the heavy ground on her last start of the season in Group 3 company (As Benoit has said) and she comes here as the 3rd highest rated on 101. 7th in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes, she was half a length behind Tango that day in a race where 6/4 Fav Love ran below expectations.

In the end I felt this was a slightly sub par Group 3 given that the highest rated filly is 104 and the next two are 102 and 101. I decided on a small play on Peace Charter who had decent early form last season. She wouldn't have that much to find on the best of that and although she disappointed on her 4th start when I felt she was a shoo-in, it transpired that she finished lame. Stable form is mediocre with two thirds and a second from nine runs but this filly seemed likely to benefit from a 7th furlong after running at 6F only last year. The ground should not be a problem and the War Front filly is getting on for three times the price of Know It All on 9/1.

2.30 Curragh Peace Charter 9/1

The Derrinstown is uninspiring for me and the colts and geldings trial race looks awful with Year Of The Tiger 4/7 despite a form line that reads like half a mobile phone number.
 
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Poor from Sunchart, maybe does need soft ground but well exposed there. Obrien absolutely dominating so far, same old story once his horses get up to middle distances at 3yo they run to a level that is hard to match.

Russian Emperor just doesnt do anything quickly, hes been caught flat footed again and couldnt reel in the pacemaker. I think the 9/1 about Mogul for the Derby is well worth taking, looks obvious that he is their number 1 and he will be much shorter if he wins on Friday.
 
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