Daily Racing Thread Thursday 21st. May 2020

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A five runner 2YO race starts the card at Deauville and Andrea Marcialis trains three of them. Andre Fabre has Cherie Amour here and she is a daughter of Shalaa who is a half sister to the smart National Defense, who hammered Salouen in the Lagardere a few years ago. Fabre has had a winner since I pointed out his poor strike rate but he is still only 3/34 this past 14 days and that's less than half of his 12 month average strike rate. Cherie Amour is Evens Fav here and I recall sire Shalaa being last of 8 runners on his debut. Not enough juice in the price with this being the sire's first crop. Looking at the others Six Pennies has a dam who was a stayer and Feelie Win may be a longer term prospect by Holy Roman Emperor. Looking at them I felt Sir Maurice might be the sharpest type. By Gutaifan out of Lady Angele the colt has speed on both sides, with the Dam defying her sire's stamina index by being a sprinter. Gutaifan sired 28 2YO winners last year according to his stallion profile on The Racing Post website and he was a sharp sort for Richard Hannon, being the only horse to get near Shalaa in the Prix Morny before later winning the Flying Childers at Doncaster. Those reasons make Sir Maurice a speculative punt for me against the favourite at more rewarding odds of 6/1. Maxime Guyon takes the ride and he was in the winners last week.

10.10 Deauville Sir Maurice 6/1
 
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I'm glad you've mentioned the juvenile race, it is a really interesting heat. I had a quick look at Gutaifan's statistics, his winners by month with 2 year olds in the UK is

April - 0 from 6
May - 4 from 27
June - 6 from 36
July - 6 from 53
August - 8 from 61
September - 5 from 54

However what I found very interesting is when you look at it by number of runs

0 runs - 4 from 77
1 run - 8 from 62
2 runs - 6 from 52
3 runs - 7 from 42
4 runs - 3 from 34

This interests me as he looks like a sire whose horses progress from their debut run, but are often quite precocious.

I had a look at the same numbers for Holy Roman Emperor which surprised me

April - 2 from 15
May - 7 from 28
June - 7 from 42
July - 10 from 60
August - 6 from 76
September - 6 from 92

and

0 runs - 13 from 122
1 run - 11 from 106
2 runs - 11 from 80
3 runs - 3 from 55
4 runs - 5 from 44
5 runs - 4 from 26

I expected Holy Roman Emperor to be more of a late developing sire, but he does seem to have plenty of runners who go well on debut or second run.

Those two were the interesting ones for me, I would go for the Holy Roman Emperor filly Feelie Win, but we will surely see a few clues in the market, with the trainer running three in the race.
 
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A few years back now i used to work with an old lad in the Prison service who is no longer with us. He loved his horse racing and we regularly used to have bets together. One of the things he liked to do was back horses that began with the letter 'Z'. There are four at Deauville today:

12:10 - Zaverna 12/1
12:50 - Zillione Sun 14/1
1:25 - Zoelola 14/1
2:35 - Zorpen 17/4

Ew lucky 15 and acca on those. He and i shared the same birthday which happens to be today so seems the perfect time to give it a go.
 
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stick said:
Too sharp for the fav as I feared
Click to expand...

I think it was a more "soft" introduction for the jolly than it was for the winner. A good start to the day anyway!


Edisa in the next, even though she's been a little weak in the early market.
 
I did the maiden races.

11.10 Jamilya 6/1

She should build on a nose second first time up.

11.40 Telemaque 12/1

A chance is taken as I saw his debut where he was clearly amiss. Fav that day but not seen since, he must be better than that.
 
Grendel said:
I did the maiden races.

11.10 Jamilya 6/1

She should build on a nose second first time up.

11.40 Telemaque 12/1

A chance is taken as I saw his debut where he was clearly amiss. Fav that day but not seen since, he must be better than that.
Click to expand...

Oh well, two 2nds but I had singles and an each-way double, so not so bad.

Jamilya ran too free, with her head held high for a lot of the way. She was too far off the pace but did her best in running on well to take second.

Telemaque was totally wrong on debut, never getting into the race. I could tell after 100 yards that he was going to run much better today. Initially I felt he might come through to win it but then I thought he was going to be swallowed up and be about 4th but he kept at it well and eventually only went down a head in a tight affair where two heads and a short head covered the first four home. Much better from Telemaque and he should win some races. Still not happening for Fabre really and time is running out for the first Classics.
 
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