Let's Call The Whole Thing Off?

[astro]

are you really this thick. I've already explained to you, multiple teams have been top of that league this season with greater point differences. Coventry still had some of the tougher fixtures to play, while some others would have had the easier fixtures. Coventry still had to play two of the top four teams, one of those games would have been against another PPG winning team Oxford. So either one of those teams would have dropped points. The leagues top scorer by far is a Posh player, the leagues number of clean sheets is the Posh, the Posh still had Coventry to play, so another game in the promotion section that Coventry still had to play, I can see why the Posh chairman is pissed off.

Your point about previous leads is irrelevant, the most recent data is always the most important. The [HASHTAG]#sixpointers[/HASHTAG] between rivals are interesting though. But basically you're saying they've been screwed by the fixture computer, well that always happens.

 

[Tobes]

I've said many times it's not perfect but it's the best we've got. The only nonsense proposal is ignoring all results as if they never happened.

Yes we know cases of miraculous escapes from relegation. If there are no more games played then this crisis has removed crap teams' opporunity for that kind of escape and that's a shame, but the reality remains they were still crap for 80% of the season.

You can’t halt a competition that’s got a quarter of it left to play, and relegate sides from the richest league on the planet based on no rule whatsoever.

As unlike the French league, we didn’t have anything in the PL rules that cover this kind of unexpected eventuality.

You trying to argue that a PPG ending somehow has integrity is laughable, as it goes against what the entire game is about. It’s not over until it’s over.....

14 clubs won’t vote for it either, so it ain’t happening.

 

[brb]

Your point about previous leads is irrelevant, the most recent data is always the most important. The [HASHTAG]#sixpointers[/HASHTAG] between rivals are interesting though. But basically you're saying they've been screwed by the fixture computer, well that always happens.

How does that 'always' happen, we've never had this situation before.

 

[Diego]

We were six points off the playoffs, unbeaten in six (second best form in the league) with two of the dross teams in the next two games and soft run-in. I demand compensation.

Soft run in doesn't count mate, you should have got all your points in the earlier games

For somr reason Astro and his board get excited about "easy" run in every time the new season fixtures are announced

 

[astro]

Soft run in doesn't count mate, you should have got all your points in the earlier games

For somr reason Astro and his board get excited about "easy" run in every time the new season fixtures are announced

Exactly. Everyone knows the value of an easy run-in. But the caveat is that if a global disaster prevents those games being played then you don't feel the benefit of it.

Points on the board are better than a game in hand.

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Exactly. Everyone knows the value of an easy run-in. But the caveat is that if a global disaster prevents those games being played then you don't feel the benefit of it.

Points on the board are better than a game in hand.

They should have really put that in writing.

 

[astro]

You can’t halt a competition that’s got a quarter of it left to play, and relegate sides from the richest league on the planet based on no rule whatsoever.

As unlike the French league, we didn’t have anything in the PL rules that cover this kind of unexpected eventuality.

You trying to argue that a PPG ending somehow has integrity is laughable, as it goes against what the entire game is about. It’s not over until it’s over.....

14 clubs won’t vote for it either, so it ain’t happening.

The game definiely isn't about not celebrating any goal or result until final whistle on the last day of the season because that's the only time you know results will be respected.

 

[astro]

But if they’re **** hot for the remaining 20-25% of the season then actually across a FULL season they haven’t been crap. Why should the final quarter of a season not have as much importance as other points of the season?

Likewise for the European places - as it stands a good run from any team in the top half of the table could result in CL football and if they’ve achieved that in a FULL season it doesn’t matter how well they had done with 25% of the season still to play.

Calling the season now totally ignores just how much football is still to be played and the very essence of football where the underdog can triumph. For me giving positions based on 29 games is a farce as no-one has actually achieved their places or been relegated. A season is 38 games, not 29.

Underdogs can triumph but most often they don't. The occurence of miraculous endings is exaggerated by the media. If a disaster forces you to stop playing games then the most sensible things is to just go with the facts that are known and not the possible Hollywood storylines you can imagine.

 

[Diego]

Exactly. Everyone knows the value of an easy run-in. But the caveat is that if a global disaster prevents those games being played then you don't feel the benefit of it.

Points on the board are better than a game in hand.

Points on the board mean **** all if the season isn't completed

I bet you celebrate "top at Christmas" too

 

[Tobes]

The game definiely isn't about not celebrating any goal or result until final whistle on the last day of the season because that's the only time you know results will be respected.

Manchester City 13th May 2012

Sit the **** down.

 

[astro]

Yes. Not really PPG though in that case.

Points per game and GD per game. Anyway, I think the weighted version is better since everyone values home advantage so much.

Personally I would prefer a more sophisticated statistical analysis which took into account difficulty of remaining fixtures. This would solve the lower league issue @brb brings up, but most football fans aren't such a fan of stats as I am and might prefer something simpler.

 

[astro]

Manchester City 13th May 2012

Sit the **** down.

Exception that proves the rule. Everyone talks about it because it's so rare.

 

[astro]

And how do you gauge the standard of teams left to play against?

In PPG and weighted PPG you don't. I think it should be taken into account and it would be easy for something like Opta to do. But people already whinge about things like expected goals so I don't think they would accepted a statistical table.

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

In PPG and weighted PPG you don't. I think it should be taken into account and it would be easy for something like Opta to do. But people already whinge about things like expected goals so I don't think they would accepted a statistical table.

I’m enjoying your portrayal of yourself as a learned football statistician by the way.

 

[afcftw]

In PPG and weighted PPG you don't. I think it should be taken into account and it would be easy for something like Opta to do. But people already whinge about things like expected goals so I don't think they would accepted a statistical table.

Should the FA cup be awarded on stats as well?

 

[afcftw]

Underdogs can triumph but most often they don't. The occurence of miraculous endings is exaggerated by the media. If a disaster forces you to stop playing games then the most sensible things is to just go with the facts that are known and not the possible Hollywood storylines you can imagine.

But form does change constantly which is why league positions keep changing and we don’t just award the league based on who we think has the best team.

 

[astro]

Should the FA cup be awarded on stats as well?

No. Cups are all about the luck of the draw and the luck of decisions in the final. Just cancel them.

 

[afcftw]

No. Cups are all about the luck of the draw and the luck of decisions in the final. Just cancel them.

So a competition with only 3 game rounds to play is too unpredictable to fairly predict but we can fairly predict the league?

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

No. Cups are all about the luck of the draw and the luck of decisions in the final. Just cancel them.

We could use your method for this round then have the next round drawn and re-do that until we have a winner. Same for the European competitions.

 

[Diego]

In PPG and weighted PPG you don't. I think it should be taken into account and it would be easy for something like Opta to do. But people already whinge about things like expected goals so I don't think they would accepted a statistical table.

They most certainly wouldn't, Watford (bottom of the league for a large part of the season) smashing you 3-0, Norwich ( bottom of the league for a large part of the season) beating City 3-2. How do your stats account for those kind of things?