The Systems Thread

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Chaninbar said:
Using nothing other than my declining memory I've long thought the Venetia horses on heavy is a bit of a red herring. Certainly if I fancy one of hers the heavy going doesn't put me off, but I've always thought she's more of a streaky trainer. When she blows hot she's proper boiling. But she can also go ice cold too. I don't suppose the data can add any hard stats to my theory though.
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Her monthly strike rate does differ amazingly. In any month she has had 10 or more runners -

Best month 16 winners from 56 (December 2019) 28% strike rate
Worst Month 1 winner from 21 (October 2017) 5% strike rate

She has had 12 months of positive P/L using BSP in the 5 and a bit years of the studied data. Most of which are months that follow each other

2018 - March& April
2018/19 - November to February
2019 - October to December
 
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Have you been studying all the training courses they send you Nass? Incredible support they offer. From a data mining viewpoint they seem excellent. An incredible amount of thought and effort has gone into this product. From a personal viewpoint, I couldn't bet based on past stats as there is no guarantee that a statistic based on the last 5/10 years will repeat itself in the coming year when, with hindsight, there was a valid reason for the dip. I wouldn't bet blindly on past stats but I do think, if you have good reason to back a horse and the stats point you in the opposite direction, it could save you some money and, conversely, if they back up your view it might be worth increasing your stake

Big question is;
Is it worth £200 every 8 weeks? Or can one make £1300 profit every year just to pay for it

Looking forward to your assessment, as you seem well into how to get the best out of it
 
Ron said:
Have you been studying all the training courses they send you Nass? Incredible support they offer. From a data mining viewpoint they seem excellent. An incredible amount of thought and effort has gone into this product. From a personal viewpoint, I couldn't bet based on past stats as there is no guarantee that a statistic based on the last 5/10 years will repeat itself in the coming year when, with hindsight, there was a valid reason for the dip. I wouldn't bet blindly on past stats but I do think, if you have good reason to back a horse and the stats point you in the opposite direction, it could save you some money and, conversely, if they back up your view it might be worth increasing your stake

Big question is;
Is it worth £200 every 8 weeks? Or can one make £1300 profit every year just to pay for it

Looking forward to your assessment, as you seem well into how to get the best out of it
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I’ve honestly not put you up to asking that question. Unsurprisingly I’ve been running the different theories of this thread through the system builder looking at which ones are profitable in the long term.

I will share the outputs of the theoretical testing tomorrow (as I’m currently sat with a child whose struggling to sleep), but I think it’s been a really interesting study.

I’ve not gone through all the modules as I’m not really interested in some of it (I don’t like using others ratings if I can help it) but that’s on my to do list.
 
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Ok,

So i've been testing this with systems along the way (Mccain at Bangor - over hurdles - being one i've borrowed!). I think you have to look at the use of such systems in one of two ways -

1 - You've found a silver bullet - You have found something that is vastly profitable and returns a major return on interest. This would normally be a relatively few runners a year and to be backed to big stakes.

2 - You've found something that over time is profitable - This is probably a lot of smaller bets that add up to a similar sized staking plan but over time is profitable to a ROI that is suitable for you.

I don't think you will find many of the first bullet point. Of all the systems i've looked at you won't have many that return high levels of profit for few bets that I would be confident in following blind. An example of this is the Venetia Williams chat yesterday. If you started following her runners in December 2019 you'd be in major profit for that month. However, continue to back her blind at she goes out of form quickly and stays out of form for months.

The second point is easier to find, especially if you are looking at Sire statistics for certain parameters (Southwell Fibresand or Bumper horses) and you would have horses on your side from different yards, shielding you from a really long cold run from one trainer.

So, given all of that, I've created a list of 26 different systems that i've traced back for 2020, 2019 and 2018 to see how profitable they would be to level stakes (£2 @ BSP).

2020 - 4124 bets - profit £2858.96 - ROI 34.6%
2019 - 12934 bets - profit £7226.4 - ROI 27.9%
2018 - 13366 bets - profit £4641.86 - ROI 17.4%

So if you took the cost of the package at full price (they do discounts at different parts of the year) -

2020 to date - profit £1591.46
2019 - profit £5958.9
2018 - profit 3374.36

So as you can see, in theory this is a profitable thing to be doing, however that works on the premise that you have funds available to bet this way, and that you can take losses as well as profits. My view on this is that by betting small stakes and blindly, it is more of a trading style approach than the betting big on small number of bets (approach 1 and the usual punting approach) and is probably a safer way of keeping losses manageable (if one system fails, the whole lot doesn't).

The key here would be to be able to keep with it, keep the stakes level and to maintain the betting approach over the mid term. I am in a fortunate position that i've saved a betting bank up over the years and this is in my within my budget.

I think my approach is going to be to give this a go, keep detailed records and see how difficult it would be to maintain. Given how accessible the exchange is on mobile devices, it should be pretty easy to get the bets on each day (given 2018 record it averages at 36 bets a day).

The first thing I need to do though is work out which approaches can be removed (for instance I have one that is 3000 bets a season, but is a steady profit, does this actually need following or can it be removed to reduce bet numbers without drastically reducing ROI/Profit).
 
I should add, those numbers at at 5% commission rates, and Betfair now have an account structure whereby you can reduce commission to 2% which would further increase the profitability of the system.

The big thing I've learn't from the experience is how much more valuable the Exchange is for the average punter, and that BSP is an easy way of managing betting on the exchange. I have always been a traditionalist in terms of betting (take a price - bet with bookmakers) but this has shown that if you want to make those extra percentage points, then it is the exchange that can help you to do this.

I have never been the greatest at understanding how markets move for day to day racing, so I've always been against using the exchange to take a fixed price, given you get BOG at bookmakers. However, looking at this data it shows that I needn't be worried about using an exchange but doing so at the Betfair Starting Price, it is far better than you get using bookmakers and BOG if you are putting on quantity of bets rather than bets at high stakes.
 
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At least with the Exchange you don't suddenly find your account closed/restricted and with low stakes there should never be a problem getting your bets matched (not that I know anything at all about the Exchange)

Are you saying that you apply 26 systems and bet on all qualifiers?
Might this not give you several horses in one race resulting in a guaranteed loss in that race?
 
Ron, that is going to be the interesting part of trialling this approach. I’ve naturally got a spread over flat/AW/jumps so hopefully the bets will spread themselves out over the meetings/races and not end up with too many races that have multiple bets in them.

I will run the system with all bets calculated and also keep a betting log for the actual bets, which will be limited to horses over a set price (probably 1/2 or 4/6 in the market) and removing races that are unprofitable backing blind.

If I’ve got a short price favourite and also an outsider, then I will back both and hope the outsider wins!! I think it calls for an optimistic but also pragmatic approach, if a race doesn’t work financially then it needs scratching from the betting.

I’ve whittled a few systems away after looking at the statistical scores of a/e and chi (don’t ask!!) so I think I’ve got to a level I’m content with for trialling.

If I get chance when racing gets back underway and work allows, I will post results here on the days racing or at least give an update periodically.
 
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NassauBoard said:
Ron, that is going to be the interesting part of trialling this approach. I’ve naturally got a spread over flat/AW/jumps so hopefully the bets will spread themselves out over the meetings/races and not end up with too many races that have multiple bets in them.

I will run the system with all bets calculated and also keep a betting log for the actual bets, which will be limited to horses over a set price (probably 1/2 or 4/6 in the market) and removing races that are unprofitable backing blind.

If I’ve got a short price favourite and also an outsider, then I will back both and hope the outsider wins!! I think it calls for an optimistic but also pragmatic approach, if a race doesn’t work financially then it needs scratching from the betting.

I’ve whittled a few systems away after looking at the statistical scores of a/e and chi (don’t ask!!) so I think I’ve got to a level I’m content with for trialling.

If I get chance when racing gets back underway and work allows, I will post results here on the days racing or at least give an update periodically.
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That was going to be my next question; maybe some could be cut out. I would have banged all those results from the 26 systems into Access and grouped them various ways to see if any were a constant profit ove the 3 years, or profits reducing over the years or in certain months etc etc. Would be fun. Or have you already done that?
 
Ron said:
That was going to be my next question; maybe some could be cut out. I would have banged all those results from the 26 systems into Access and grouped them various ways to see if any were a constant profit ove the 3 years, or profits reducing over the years or in certain months etc etc. Would be fun. Or have you already done that?
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ive already done it by month, by year and by SP. key for me has been a system that isn’t too variable monthly as that suggests stability of the system.

I think the key is how theory goes into practice, I can see a lot of bets that I’d just shy away from on a formbook rationale, but this way of betting would require me to ignore that for the purposes of the system approach.
 
Here are two sets of questions for you to ponder on your Easter Sunday - These are UK racecourse (both codes of the sport)

1 - Which racecourse has the highest win % for horses who are noted as Leading from the off on Proforms Racecards?
Which has the highest for Held Up horses?

2 - Which course has the highest ROI for Leading from the off?
Which has highest ROI for held up?
 
No idea on the questions Nass but have you tried lumping all the selections from the 20 odd systems over the years all together and grouping them by race date, race, and selection and counting how many systems came up with the same horse. Could lead to some interesting analysis
 
NassauBoard said:
Here are two sets of questions for you to ponder on your Easter Sunday - These are UK racecourse (both codes of the sport)

1 - Which racecourse has the highest win % for horses who are noted as Leading from the off on Proforms Racecards? Chester (27.3%) and Sedgefield in second (26.7%)
Which has the highest for Held Up horses? Fakenham (10.6%) with Ffos Las (10.19%) in second

2 - Which course has the highest ROI for Leading from the off? Towcester (RIP) led this but now its Salisbury with 107% (Chester second with 99%)
Which has highest ROI for held up? Only five tracks have a +ve return - Newton Abbot with 18% is by far the best. Worcester in second with 5%
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Now it is worth noting on this that you have only one (or very seldom more) leaders in a race (54,606 since 1st Jan 2015), but a plethora of horses being held up (239,896). Thereby the ratios need to be looked at in this context of the ratio of 4.4:1 for hold up horses.
 
"- Which course has the highest ROI for Leading from the off? Towcester (RIP) led this but now its Salisbury with 107%"

Does this indicate that it might be a good idea to bet in running soon after the start at Salisbury? Do you have longest losing sequences for these systems, individually and collectively which could (possibly) lead to a profitable staking system?
 
Sorry to bombard you with questions Nass but have you tested the systems in only certain types of races (eg handicaps of x or more/less runners, group races etc) or restricted to major meetings, or Saturdays only?
 
Ron said:
"- Which course has the highest ROI for Leading from the off? Towcester (RIP) led this but now its Salisbury with 107%"

Does this indicate that it might be a good idea to bet in running soon after the start at Salisbury? Do you have longest losing sequences for these systems, individually and collectively which could (possibly) lead to a profitable staking system?
Click to expand...


I think this comes down to some of the earlier points I made, to me I think the restricting further of data or creating a bespoke staking plan would potentially be retrofitting data with a view of optimising it. I've purposely kept the systems very relaxed in terms of filtering. I think the same is to be said of looking at losing sequences, rather than doing that I am going with a flat staking system, which should stop me from building too many losses from a lean period.

In terms of Salisbury, yes, but the issue is that the market reacts very quickly so unless you've got a 'true' livestream of the race, or are at the course, then you aren't betting on an even footing with others. I think what the Salisbury point suggests is that if you see a race in which pace options are very limited, then those going from the front should be looked at more closely.

I don't think you can create a level stake system with that sort of data, you need to spend time on the races and see if the pace angle is easy to find and follow. Similarly at Southwell and Chelmsford on the All Weather.
 
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