19/20 Season - How we survive

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So Farke says 7 wins, which means also 5 draws...

I still think the target is actually 8 wins, but clearly Farke and co can see only 7 of our matches look (to the betting man) as winnable.

In football, anything can happen though
 
Update after Bournemouth:

From our 15 remaining fixtures we now need 7 wins and 2 draws or 6 wins and 5 draws to get to the magic 40 points...

In terms of remaining fixtures, we now have:
5 Bonus Matches
4 Target Wins
6 Must Wins

We’re now into our long run of BMs and TWs (six matches, Spurs and Liverpool as BMs and Newcastle, Wolves and Blades (all away) plus Leicester (home) as TWs).

Basically if we get 5+ points from these 6 matches we will be on target, but that leaves us with no slack for the “easier” fixtures (i.e. MWs) - obviously the more we get in the next few weeks the more wiggle room we have with the string of MWs which follow.

My concern is that it is such a tough six-match run that, despite the momentous result against Bournemouth it might knock all confidence and mean we have given up hope by the Saints game, even though we will actually have a chance mathematically if we play to the level we know the team can (albeit for the full 90 minutes, every match...)
 
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SW and DF have recruited players with technical ability, but do they have the necessary grit and determination for a relegation battle? Yesterday was a test and they passed - just. Spurs will be another test. There is some momentum now but that could be undermined by another hammering. Our situation is that vulnerable and we now need a surprise result.
 
General Melchett said:
It is as you say a little reassuring that at least on paper we have some of our easier fixtures to come. But the breakdown of those matches is interesting too. If we were to win all our EW/MW matches but little else, can the fans hold it together until 14th March and Southampton with maybe only 3-5 pts from the next 8 games? :huh: How bleak might the table look at that point? Of course Leicester escaped relegation on the strength of very strong finish before kicking on to the title. Maybe the fixture computer threw up a similar oportunity?
Thanks CR, If nothing else I think your thread will keep me in the fat lady hasn't sung yet camp at least until that Southampton game is done.

Bah!
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I'm revisiting my own post, even following our meak surrender to wolves, we are doing pretty much as I thought and as such, all hope has not yet been surrendered

3-5pts, 4 so far with 2 to play. Dare we dream of anything from Leicester or Sheff Utd? The other thing for me is that inspite of us only gaining 4 pts so far in a tough spell. We are still to this point only 7 pts from 17th, 8 from 16th. So as we were. Had that gap increased as was not beyond imagination at that point, then what little hope might have gone. Now we just need to go beat those around us (Easier said than done) the form of the teams just above us, also lends hope to a low survival total, 6 wins I think wouldbe enough.

Bah!

p.s. Do I think we'll get those 6 wins? Not on your Nelly, but gotta hope till its no longer possible.
 
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General Melchett said:
I'm revisiting my own post, even following our meak surrender to wolves, we are doing pretty much as I thought and as such, all hope has not yet been surrendered

3-5pts, 4 so far with 2 to play. Dare we dream of anything from Leicester or Sheff Utd? The other thing for me is that inspite of us only gaining 4 pts so far in a tough spell. We are still to this point only 7 pts from 17th, 8 from 16th. So as we were. Had that gap increased as was not beyond imagination at that point, then what little hope might have gone. Now we just need to go beat those around us (Easier said than done) the form of the teams just above us, also lends hope to a low survival total, 6 wins I think wouldbe enough.

Bah!

p.s. Do I think we'll get those 6 wins? Not on your Nelly, but gotta hope till its no longer possible.
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that’s right! On paper, very little has changed as we have our “easier” fixtures to come.

The only problem is that because our chances of picking up 100% on the key matches is very slim, we really needed to surpass expectations elsewhere.

For me though, not over til the large person of a feminine persuasion warbles
 
I’m going to persist with this one I’m afraid chaps!

What a difference a match makes, eh? So we are now 2/3 points ahead of our target for safety and bang in line for 40 points based on the Must Win/Target Win/Bonus Match method! Lawyerly caveat: that depends on us winning all our must wins.

That’s still pretty awesome to be ahead of schedule. Here’s what we have left:

Sheffield U Away - TW

Southampton Home - MW

Everton Home - MW

Arsenal Away - BM

Brighton Home - MW

Watford Away - MW

West Ham Home - MW

Chelsea Away - BM

Burnley Home - MW

Man City Away - BM

Basically, the three matches against our relegation competitors (Watford, West Ham and, at a stretch, Brighton) are the ones to think of as six-pointers. The others from here on in feel like relying slightly on teams having seasons which are over. I’m thinking Man City and possibly Arsenal if the gap is too big.

If somehow we can get a point against Blades, that will help again.

I still believe <ok>
 
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Canary Rob said:
I’m going to persist with this one I’m afraid chaps!

What a difference a match makes, eh? So we are now 2/3 points ahead of our target for safety and bang in line for 40 points based on the Must Win/Target Win/Bonus Match method! Lawyerly caveat: that depends on us winning all our must wins.

That’s still pretty awesome to be ahead of schedule. Here’s what we have left:

Sheffield U Away - TW

Southampton Home - MW

Everton Home - MW

Arsenal Away - BM

Brighton Home - MW

Watford Away - MW

West Ham Home - MW

Chelsea Away - BM

Burnley Home - MW

Man City Away - BM

Basically, the three matches against our relegation competitors (Watford, West Ham and, at a stretch, Brighton) are the ones to think of as six-pointers. The others from here on in feel like relying slightly on teams having seasons which are over. I’m thinking Man City and possibly Arsenal if the gap is too big.

If somehow we can get a point against Blades, that will help again.

I still believe <ok>
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It doesn’t look impossible. Great win tonight. Good luck with it. <ok>
 
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The trouble is that Everton are now one of the forms sides in the league and Southamptons form has improved a lot, so I don’t think they can be called Must Wins anymore, maybe they should be TW.
 
For a bit of positivity, we are still ahead of play based on my Must Win/Target Win approach.

But now we have run out of free matches. We can’t afford to slip up from here.
 
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RiverEndRick said:
I love your optimism Rob, but we're running out of games now. On the plus side though, Bournemoth, West Ham and Watford all lost as well. Brighton drew.
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The whole point of the exercise is not to count the number of games, but rather to assess when the “easier” and “harder” ones are. We have to play each team twice - so if you play all the hardest teams at the beginning, it’s going to skew your results downwards on average. I’m trying to present a way of looking at the season that doesn’t focus too much on other results and how many matches there are. <ok>

(Of course you still have to win the “easy” games, which we have struggled to do...)
 
Both Arsenal and Chelsea away whilst tough, are not the level of toughness that previous season would suggest. Both are very patchy and it isn't beyond the realms of possiblity to pick something up. They could as easily be TW as BM's now. Arsenal are lower in the table than Spurs who we just got a 120min draw out of (They are of course in better form and have a fit and firing striker!)

Bah!
 
SuffolkCanary said:
Where's ColUMike when we need him to come in and tell us we are guaranteed relegation!
I'd feel a lot more convinced that we could survive, if he could make an appearance and 'confirm' our impending doom!
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Maybe he's waiting for somebody on this forum to congratulate Col_Who on their impending promotion?
How many years did it take for the 'Lambchop' bitterness to start to subside ??
Nah, hornet's nest. ;)
 
Scrap this. We now need to lobby the FA that it would be entirely unfair to relegate us without allowing us the chance to play all our remaining fixtures.
 
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