Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 10th. March 2020

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Grendel said:
It looks a year short on Class. The race of the meeting was shaping up to be the Champion Chase but Altior has fallen by the wayside now.

The great hope for some was Honeysuckle, labelled Jump Racing's new Superstar on Radio 5 Live after winning the Irish Champion Hurdle but she is so good that she goes to the Mares race and will likely be beaten there anyway. Envoi Allen is the Hype horse of the year and could have won anything from the Champion Hurdle to the Royal Ascot Gold Cup if you believe the hype. He goes in the Ballymore but on an official mark of 156 he has not actually improved much from race to race on Racing Post performances of 149, 153 and 154 for his last three starts. I slightly question his OR of 156 but it's not as contentious as the OR of Solo, who seems crazy on 157, when the Racing Post have him on 145 and Timeform on 144p.

The topic of potentially overrated horses brings us to Shishkin, who is 153 on official figures. It was an egg and spoon race he won last time and it was a stamina test of nearly two and a half miles. His previous race at Newbury is awful looking, with the only two runners to place since rated 115 and 102. This is a big step up for Shishkin and with Abacadabras and Asterion Forlonge in the field it is crazy to see Shishkin at 11/4. I think he should be at least 5/1 and I imagine he will be a drifter. Abacadabras is solid enough but he lacks the excitement factor and didn't really impress me last time he ran. Asterion Forlonge seemed to make a statement last time out and he does have that sexy look about him but he's likely to start 2/1 or so and that is a bit tight. Chantry House is being backed but needs to step up by a stone to get involved here. For a bet to kick the meeting off I felt Fiddlerontheroof was a safe enough choice on 6/1 each-way SEVEN places with William Hill. The Tizzard horse is likeable enough and I would have got involved ante-post but for the fact that I felt he needed it soft and may not get it. Now that it is soft he seemed a no brainer at double the odds of Shishkin. Fiddlerontheroof is unexposed and will see it out strongly. I feel Shishkin is terrible value and a lay for sure.

1.30 Cheltenham Fiddlerontheroof 6/1 Each-way 7 places.
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totally agree - I think Fiddleontheroof each way is one of the best bets of the festival
 
In the Champion Hurdle Epatante is top rated on 166 when taking the weight into account. Sharjah is next on 163 but he's dubious to run to that figure. Depressingly the next best is Supasundae on 160 and he's 10 years old now carrying the moniker of being Apples Jade's whipping boy for a fair time.

It is easy to see the appeal of an each-way 4 places in an open year but some of the "Dark" horses are crazy prices now. Darver Star has to be the worst of the lot at 12/1 now. A 146 rated horse who went up to 158 for being runner up to Honeysuckle last time, it has to be a worry that she runs in the Mares race and won't even be favourite for that. Darver Star is surely 10 lbs short of what it will take to win a mediocre Champion Hurdle. Ballyandy and Silver Streak are decent sorts but lack a bit of class and scope. Cilaos Emery is an appalling price at 13/2 given that he won an egg and spoon race last time as 1/4 Fav. Not So Sleepy is the lowest rated in the field on 143 and he was hopeless last time in a Handicap race. Hard to see him involved and he's likely to be going at it with Petit Mouchoir from the front as the hares and they will surely succumb to the closers.

I felt Fusil Raffles might have a good season but he was less than impressive in the Elite Hurdle before a total bomb behind Epatante at Kempton. That leaves him with a lot to prove, although he is clearly a lot better than he showed last time. Epatante is way too short for me and the vaunted 7 lbs mares allowance sometimes seems overplayed to me. I think Pentland Hills is the Henderson horse to be on. He was pretty slow getting going last season and he surprised me when landing the Triumph Hurdle. He hasn't won this season but I feel he will get the race run to suit and he can pounce from a stronger pace than last time. In any other year I would be dubious but he remains unexposed and could just be cherry ripe for the one day. It would be hard to see him out of the first four places and he looks safe each-way but I'll just play win after losing my Klassical Dream ante-post bet. I reckon if Klassical Dream had improved 5 to 7 pounds this year he would have been a shoo-in but that's racing.

3.30 Cheltenham Pentland Hills 13/2 in an awful renewal.
 
Am a big fan of Imperial Aura

Think he will run a huge race in the Ultima [4.50] and Each Way @ 11-2 with 5 places looks a rock solid play
 
Fiddlerontheroof in the Supreme for me too, 7 places offer looks too good to turn down.

Maire Banreigh in the Arkle. She jumps for fun and I think she is versatile in running style. She seems to have been overlooked in the market and at double figures looks a fair bet.

The Conditional & Cobra De Mai in the Ultima - former was going very strongly in the Warwick race before not getting home and the latter is very well handicapped again and has caught the eye a couple of times this season

Espoir De Guye, could be a handicap blot. So impressive last time and I think the ground is going to suit this one perfectly. Probably the strongest selection on the card for me.

Lord Du Mesnil, similar to the Venetia horse, vastly improved and ground will suit very well. I can see him testing the jumping of the favourite and he is a tough horse to reel in if your jumping isn't slick and fast. Sam rides.
 
Day 1:
Supreme - Abacadabras for me. Form with Envoi Allen is solid, favourite looks a stayer and can't have Shishkin based of what he has done so far. Fiddlerontheroof to place.
Arkle - Notebook. Beautiful jumper, Fakir is 7lbs worse off. Rouge Vif e/w.
Ultima - 2 at bigger prices, Mulcahys Hill, good run in October beating Wholestone here. Burbank for the Henderson/Hemmings combo.
Champ Hurdle - Epatante
Mares - Back at 2m4f I fancy Honeysuckle to beat BDD.
Northern Trust - Hold the note for Mick Channon, won this 2 years ago with Mister Whitaker.
NH Chase - Looks a very poor renewal, his jumping would worry me but can't get away from Carefully Selected.
 
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1.30 - Abracadabras 11/2
3.30 - Coeur Sublime 14/1
4.50 - Galvin 11/2

Elliot/Russell combo for me on the opening day.
Singles and large e/w treble.

Good luck all.
 
Between us and the Fat Lads we have picked pretty much every horse in every race!

For me, several duplicates of course - Abracadabras, Notebook, The Conditional, Fusil Raffles, and need I add Lady B :emoticon-0152-heart hoping she can at least place, but it's a big ask of her. Knight In Dubai and Lord Du Mesnil complete the line up. And although I'm plumping for Abracadabras, I too think the forgotten Hendo horse Allart may well get in the mix. He may be allart to do so however (ok, I'm getting my coat)
 
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Should any of you still not be in the mood, I suggest a read of Alistair Down‘s article on the Racing Post Website. Stirring stuff indeed.

I‘m on the way to the airport to catch a flight to Manchester where my dad will pick me up and speed me, via the local Ladbrokes, to the warmth and comfort of the family home. Just in time for the Supreme. Here’s hoping for a trouble-free journey. Some twat coughing his bollocks off here on the train<laugh>
 
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OddDog said:
Should any of you still not be in the mood, I suggest a read of Alistair Down‘s article on the Racing Post Website. Stirring stuff indeed.

I‘m on the way to the airport to catch a flight to Manchester where my dad will pick me up and speed me, via the local Ladbrokes, to the warmth and comfort of the family home. Just in time for the Supreme. Here’s hoping for a trouble-free journey. Some twat coughing his bollocks off here on the train<laugh>
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He can turn a phrase, can Alastair <ok>



Meanwhile, time to look for horses with form underwater.
 
Archers Road said:
He can turn a phrase, can Alastair <ok>



Meanwhile, time to look for horses with form underwater.
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I’m not so sure. 4mm of rain overnight has just got rid of the bit of good-soft around the top bend but it isn’t a deluge. The ground will be on the slow side but I can’t see it being too testing, especially given most of it hasn't been raced on for 12 months. Should be better than what most of them have been running on this winter.
 
Best of luck me old muckers
Asterion Forlonge/FOTR Ew Hills offer
Fakir D win
Discorama/ Ceppage Ew
Darver Star/ Couer Sublime Ew
Bennie Win/ Elfile to nab place 33s
Galvin/ Hold the Note
Carefully Selected win
 
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