Right I've done my write-ups for Tuesday now that we have had final decs. I may or may not change my mind based on ground, market moves and gut instinct but here goes
:
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Shishkin is the lay of the week for me – his form is all style and no substance and I am at a total loss to work out how the handicapper has managed to rate him 153. I have this year’s renewal going to Ireland and there are 2 standout candidates from across the Irish Sea – Abacadabras and Asterion Forlonge. The former has always looked a high class individual but was very keen in his early days – pulling early cost him any chance in the Champion Bumper last year where he travelled superbly into the race but didn’t get home. He is settling much better these days and has only been bested by Envoi Allen over hurdles, when the Cheveley Park superstar got first run and outstayed him in the Royal Bond (Champion Hurdle dark horse Darver Star well held in 3rd). He made no mistake over Christmas and has been kept fresh for this by Elliot. He has been my long-term fancy for the race but the Dublin Racing festival in February saw the emergence of Asterion Forlonge with a brilliant performance to smash up Easywork and Mt Leinster in the manner of a very, very good horse. He set a breakneck pace together with Easywork and then just powered away from him up the straight. I can see Paul Townend doing the same in the Supreme, bouncing out to make all and allowing his stamina to kick in up the hill – very much in the mould of Champagne Fever. Such tactics will suit Abacadabras, who will be happy to sit behind the strong pace and look to pounce late. The big question is whether he can pass the grey up the hill and I can’t answer that. I think my play will therefore be a
reverse forecast on Abacadabras and Asterion Forlonge. I can’t see anything else getting involved in the finish but the one I could see grabbing 3rd at a nice price is Mr Hendersons
Allart.
The Arkle
I’ve been keen on
Notebook for this ever since he beat Fakir D’Oudairies on Boxing Day and I think he is certainly the best of the Irish challengers. There is a slight concern about his temperament (was quite coltish before his last race) but I wouldn’t let that put me off him and Henry De Bromhead knows how to get one ready for Cheltenham. Victory for him here could launch a memorable week for Rachael Blackmore. One worth considering e/w is Dan Skelton’s mare
Maire Banrigh who has been well placed to win 6 on the bounce and gets the 7lbs mares allowance.
The Ultima Handicap Chase
I managed to find the winner of the race 12 months ago, Beware The Bear, and his key piece of form for me was finishing 4th in the race the year before. Fast forward twelve months and I am again looking at the horse who finished 4th in last year’s renewal –
Big River from Lucinda Russell’s yard. He is a thorough stayer and they tried to race him handy last year but unfortunately he made a mistake at the first and I think that knocked a bit of the wind out of his sails and he steadily dropped back. He was nearer last than first rounding the final bend but absolutely flew up the hill past beaten horses to grab 4th. He is a pound higher in the handicap this year but carries 3lbs less than last year and comes here in fine fettle after winning over 2m 7f at Kelso last time out. I think the ground could be more testing this year so hopefully a slower pace than last year can see him hold a decent position on the second circuit and come round the final bend within 10 or 12 lengths of the lead and fly up the hill. Saver bet on
The Conditional who is a C&D winner and just 2lbs higher than when running a fine 2nd in the Hennessy.
Champion Hurdle
A wide-open renewal and I am happy with my 25/1 e/w ante post voucher on
Coeur Sublime. The wind op needs to have brought him forward but I can’t forget the way he travelled in the Triumph Hurdle last year and there is a certain disparity between his price and Pentland Hills. I’m hopeful he can grab a place. The likely winner is
Epatante and I would be tempted if she were to drift to 4/1. I think Pentland Hills will again travel and jump like a champ but will he finish it off?
Mares Hurdle
I’d love to see Honeysuckle win but Benie Des Dieux will be a tough nut to crack. One to just sit back and enjoy. Stormy Ireland can make it a 1-2-3 for the Irish horses.
Novices Handicap Chase
Just 6lbs covering the field in this ultra-competitive novices’ handicap chase and the key here is to try and find one who is unexposed and potentially well ahead of its mark. I think
Hold The Note would have gone into many notebooks after running a cracker in a 3-mile Grade 2 at Warwick behind Two For Gold. He looked all over the winner that day but just got outstayed and the drop back in trip should suit. I think also an e/w saver on
Jarvey’s Plate who keeps jumping off the page at me.
National Hunt Chase
I think you just have to go on official ratings here to whittle the field down and then pick whatever Jamie Codd rides
. Willie and Patrick Mullins have the short-priced fav but 11/8 in a race like this is sheer madness. Jamie Codd rides Ravenhill for Gordon Elliot and has an obvious chance and I also think the Forum’s favourite Corinthian will have a great spin on Lord Du Mesnil. Possibly one for a dutching bet on
Ravenhill and
Lord Du Mesnil.
