Luck is a massive factor. Stats don’t tell the full story but they do tell you that Newcastle are pretty ****. Sometimes they’re **** and still get a result.
I always thought it was either motivational with him or judging by the ridiculous amount of injuries we had every season that it’s his training methods causing fatigue.
Very rarely is it a big enough factor to affect your leave position imo, you finish where you deserve to finish 95% of the time.
It’s impossible to judge definitively but expected goals is as close as you can reliably get to suggesting who is lucky and unlucky.
I believe in chance. It makes little sense that chance would magically balance out over any period of games just as you’re unlikely to toss a coin 38 times and get 19 of each outcome.
I believe teams will generally finish where they deserve too. They might get lucky in one or two games but generally over a season that will balance out.
Expected goals is a retrospective stat, so not really. I’d suggest bookies go on goals scored rather than that subjective bollocks.
