Daily Racing Thread Friday 11th. Oct. 2019
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Another quiz question. What did Derek ‘Thommo’ Thompson call Christian Williams in the day when the latter was an amateur jockey???
The Racing Post suggests that this Chepstow meeting today signals the "start of the proper jumps season"; well then, best join in 
I would not be surprised if Mr Nicholls has a stormer today, so I'm having a dabble on Trevelyn's Corn in the opener, then Trucker's Lodge in the 3.20.
At Newmarket, I'll have to have a bit on Oh This is Us in the 3.00.
At York, I'm interested to see how Music Therapist does in the opener, then Spirit of the Sky in the 3.15
Hope you are all well.
Cheers.
I would not be surprised if Mr Nicholls has a stormer today, so I'm having a dabble on Trevelyn's Corn in the opener, then Trucker's Lodge in the 3.20.
At Newmarket, I'll have to have a bit on Oh This is Us in the 3.00.
At York, I'm interested to see how Music Therapist does in the opener, then Spirit of the Sky in the 3.15
Hope you are all well.
Cheers.
Tom Lacey really targeting that meeting at Hexham of the morrow. Will be interesting to see if his 4 horses really get punted in multiple wagers. Wouldn't be surprised if a few bookie chappies are a bit apprehensive re this raiding party right now.
1000 Guineas favourite Quadrilateral runs in the Fillies Mile today. Originally said to be favoured for the G3 Oh So Sharp Stakes they decided to supplement her for the furlong longer Group 1 race. Pocket change for the Juddmonte outfit of course but will it be justified against fillies already proven at the mile trip?
Love won the Moyglare and the 6th in that race, Albigna, won the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day. Albigna was reckoned by some to have improved on the softer ground but her jockey reported that she is a filly who seems to take some time to get herself organised in a race. It also came to light that Albigna was n season on the day of the Moyglare. The Group 1 form of the Moyglare is compelling but like Quadrilateral, Love steps up to the mile for the first time today. Further boosts to the Moyglare form came form Daahyeh and Under The Stars, who have won since then and it is therefore a bit surprising to see Love weak in the betting at 11/2 this morning. 11/2 for a Group 1 winner versus 9/4 for a Class 2 Novice Stakes winner in Quadrilateral seems a no brainer at first glance, so is Love the one to be with today?
Cayenne Pepper is proven at the trip and will be likely to go favourite for the Oaks should she win today. By Australia, Cayenne Pepper is rated as the stable's best juvenile by jockey Shane Foley, while Jessica Harrington said that Albigna was probably top of the pecking order. Cayenne Pepper seemed to improve a good deal for the mile distance last time and she already beat Love when they met on their debuts. Of course the O'Brien Galileo offspring often need their first run quite badly but Cayenne Pepper has also improved herself by 23 lbs on Racing Post Ratings since winning her first start. It is tight between Love and Cayenne Pepper on ratings with only 1 lb between them on official figures but I am leaning towards the filly proven at the trip.
Quadrilateral owes her reputation to a romp where she came home nine lengths clear of her field. Wide margin winners are always beguiling but often prove to be misleading. Looking at Quadrilateral's race, the "Form" horse coming in was Nasiym, with an official rating of 90. She did not run her race though and recorded only 77 on RPR. The favourite was disappointing that day and Quadrilateral basically beat horses rated, or who ran to marks in the 70's on the day. She meets much tougher opposition today.
Powerful Breeze and Boomer boast decent form and they were 1-2 in the May Hill at Doncaster. Boomer raced prominently that day and was the only one of the fillies who did do that ran their race, Earlier in the week I was looking at Boomer as a potential each-way play at 16/1 but couldn't quite convince myself she could win it. Two decent fillies but I think they need a bit more today. Anastarsia and Queen Daenerys both won on their second start but need to find improvement of more than a stone to get into the ballpark before considering what more will be needed to win.
My instinct says to take on the wide margin winner and the question is whether to go with Love or Cayenne Pepper? In the end I decided to go with the proven stamina of Cayenne Pepper, who made all last time and may do so again today to make sure her stamina comes into play. I also had a fiver on her for the Oaks at 25/1 because I don't see many realistic candidates for that Classic and a win today will probably see Cayenne Pepper a single figure price for the Oaks.
3.35 New Cayenne Pepper 5/2
The Oaks Cayenne Pepper 25/1
In the Oh So Sharp I was concerned for Final Song as favourite. She shaped like a sprinter early on and steps up in trip now. Stylistique has solid form and was a previous selection for me but she is still a maiden. Wejdan took on some really sharp fillies last time and improved despite being 5th. A stiffer test should suit her and at 5/1 I thought she was a bit of value. Final Song too short for me at 13/8
2.25 New Wejdan 5/1
Love won the Moyglare and the 6th in that race, Albigna, won the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc day. Albigna was reckoned by some to have improved on the softer ground but her jockey reported that she is a filly who seems to take some time to get herself organised in a race. It also came to light that Albigna was n season on the day of the Moyglare. The Group 1 form of the Moyglare is compelling but like Quadrilateral, Love steps up to the mile for the first time today. Further boosts to the Moyglare form came form Daahyeh and Under The Stars, who have won since then and it is therefore a bit surprising to see Love weak in the betting at 11/2 this morning. 11/2 for a Group 1 winner versus 9/4 for a Class 2 Novice Stakes winner in Quadrilateral seems a no brainer at first glance, so is Love the one to be with today?
Cayenne Pepper is proven at the trip and will be likely to go favourite for the Oaks should she win today. By Australia, Cayenne Pepper is rated as the stable's best juvenile by jockey Shane Foley, while Jessica Harrington said that Albigna was probably top of the pecking order. Cayenne Pepper seemed to improve a good deal for the mile distance last time and she already beat Love when they met on their debuts. Of course the O'Brien Galileo offspring often need their first run quite badly but Cayenne Pepper has also improved herself by 23 lbs on Racing Post Ratings since winning her first start. It is tight between Love and Cayenne Pepper on ratings with only 1 lb between them on official figures but I am leaning towards the filly proven at the trip.
Quadrilateral owes her reputation to a romp where she came home nine lengths clear of her field. Wide margin winners are always beguiling but often prove to be misleading. Looking at Quadrilateral's race, the "Form" horse coming in was Nasiym, with an official rating of 90. She did not run her race though and recorded only 77 on RPR. The favourite was disappointing that day and Quadrilateral basically beat horses rated, or who ran to marks in the 70's on the day. She meets much tougher opposition today.
Powerful Breeze and Boomer boast decent form and they were 1-2 in the May Hill at Doncaster. Boomer raced prominently that day and was the only one of the fillies who did do that ran their race, Earlier in the week I was looking at Boomer as a potential each-way play at 16/1 but couldn't quite convince myself she could win it. Two decent fillies but I think they need a bit more today. Anastarsia and Queen Daenerys both won on their second start but need to find improvement of more than a stone to get into the ballpark before considering what more will be needed to win.
My instinct says to take on the wide margin winner and the question is whether to go with Love or Cayenne Pepper? In the end I decided to go with the proven stamina of Cayenne Pepper, who made all last time and may do so again today to make sure her stamina comes into play. I also had a fiver on her for the Oaks at 25/1 because I don't see many realistic candidates for that Classic and a win today will probably see Cayenne Pepper a single figure price for the Oaks.
3.35 New Cayenne Pepper 5/2
The Oaks Cayenne Pepper 25/1
In the Oh So Sharp I was concerned for Final Song as favourite. She shaped like a sprinter early on and steps up in trip now. Stylistique has solid form and was a previous selection for me but she is still a maiden. Wejdan took on some really sharp fillies last time and improved despite being 5th. A stiffer test should suit her and at 5/1 I thought she was a bit of value. Final Song too short for me at 13/8
2.25 New Wejdan 5/1
Today begins the jumps season for many, and for me it is one of the best early season meetings and has some really interesting questions being posed.
So lets have a look at those questions
Champion Bumper - Form to follow?
The first race of the meeting is the Persian War graded novice hurdle, and with its position in the calendar it is more of a mix of second season hurdlers against summer jumpers. However this season it is different, we have a really interesting angle in which the third home in the Champion Bumper is competing for the first time over hurdles.
Not since Fingal Bay won this race back in 2011 (same trainer and jockey) have we seen a horse win this race on hurdles debut. Thyme Hill is the horse today, and is potentially a very special horse, given that he has finished third in the Champion Bumper and he hasn't been rushed into a hurdles campaign. His form from both Cheltenham runs is strong, beating future winners in both races.
So today is about whether he can run to something like 140+ on hurdles debut, and I for one think that is well within his capabilities. Take the form from his listed second, he beat Hold The Note by 2 1/2 lengths and that horse is already rated 130 over hurdles. The form is strong and does he have a vintage field to beat?
Second season versus summer form
The next point I want to make about the Persian War is the mixture of the field. This is because the race is run prior to the November switch of novices into non-novice, so we have some of last seasons novice hurdlers taking on new recruits to the sphere. Add in many of these are race fit from summer jumping and you get a very interesting mixture of horses.
The 'second' season horses are probably led by Harambe and Trevelyn's Corn, who have both shown form to be rated in the 130s. Harambe has been more exposed but does have a high handicap mark, and one that probably is fair for what he has shown (given he has run in a handicap to a good standard) whilst Trevelyn's Corn has been impressive in snatches in his fledgling career and is rated 7lbs lower but probably would have at least the little p on Timeform.
I like Trevelyn's Corn, but the form of his maiden win isn't working out, and then he disappointed behind Champ at Aintree (is held by Champagne Well on that form) but he has looked a project horse and with another summer on his back I expect him to make a large step forward this year, probably over fences after this run.
Harambe has always shown potential but he was a disappointing horse for most of last season. However things have clicked and he has gone on to show that potential. Today he doesn't have anything to find on form, his run behind Getaway Trump off a mark of 133 shows that he can be competitive in this sort of field. The question on Harambe is, will he progress as much as some of this field.
Then we have the solid form of Champagne Well for the in form Fergal O'Brien, yet he is somehow is still a maiden hurdler. His form from Aintree would put him in the contest here, and I think he will continue to improve for racing for this yard. It is interesting that they are putting the tongue tie on, and that might bring further improvement from him. I expect him to run well here, but does he have the star potential of Thyme Hill?
Then we have the current form of Some Day Soon and Win My Wings, both have made hay this year and both should be race fit and ready to go here. The question mark over these two is whether they have the ability of those prior mentioned, and that is probably going to find at least one of them out. Some Day Soon is probably the most likely of the pair to continue an upwards curve, and could make the frame here.
You then have an interesting hurdles debutant from the Tizzard yard, a highly rated chaser for NTD and a potential improver from the Skeltons.
A very interesting race, and one that should prove informative for the season.
I really like Thyme Hill and Trevelyn's Corn, whilst I do think Harambe can continue to progress. I've backed the first two to small stakes here.
Lisnagar Oscar - Is Chasing his game?
I have followed this horse over hurdles and I thought he was probably the best UK staying novice hurdler last season, and whilst he came up short at the festivals, I think he can make into a better chaser in time. He isn't the biggest horse, but he seems to have scope to jump a fence and I think he can make into a nice staying chaser.
Today he faces a hot heat, and it might be that he gets found out, but for an inform trainer I think we should expect a really good debut over fences. Hopefully they will ride him prominently as you often get found out over these fences if you get too far behind.
I had a tiny bet on him for the RSA at the festival in the summer, and I've had a bet on him today to win his novice chase.
Silver shining in the rain?
The other horse to flag and the one that i've backed with the most money is Silver Forever who runs in the closing mares novice hurdle. She impressed me last season in bumpers and I think she will outclass this field. I think she could go on to win the final of this series and provide Nicholls with some ammunition for the spring festivals, but first of all she can win this novice heat and prove she is as good over hurdles as she was in bumpers.
I backed her at odds against, which has gone, and I think we will see something to whet the appetite for the rest of the National Hunt Season.
So lets have a look at those questions
Champion Bumper - Form to follow?
The first race of the meeting is the Persian War graded novice hurdle, and with its position in the calendar it is more of a mix of second season hurdlers against summer jumpers. However this season it is different, we have a really interesting angle in which the third home in the Champion Bumper is competing for the first time over hurdles.
Not since Fingal Bay won this race back in 2011 (same trainer and jockey) have we seen a horse win this race on hurdles debut. Thyme Hill is the horse today, and is potentially a very special horse, given that he has finished third in the Champion Bumper and he hasn't been rushed into a hurdles campaign. His form from both Cheltenham runs is strong, beating future winners in both races.
So today is about whether he can run to something like 140+ on hurdles debut, and I for one think that is well within his capabilities. Take the form from his listed second, he beat Hold The Note by 2 1/2 lengths and that horse is already rated 130 over hurdles. The form is strong and does he have a vintage field to beat?
Second season versus summer form
The next point I want to make about the Persian War is the mixture of the field. This is because the race is run prior to the November switch of novices into non-novice, so we have some of last seasons novice hurdlers taking on new recruits to the sphere. Add in many of these are race fit from summer jumping and you get a very interesting mixture of horses.
The 'second' season horses are probably led by Harambe and Trevelyn's Corn, who have both shown form to be rated in the 130s. Harambe has been more exposed but does have a high handicap mark, and one that probably is fair for what he has shown (given he has run in a handicap to a good standard) whilst Trevelyn's Corn has been impressive in snatches in his fledgling career and is rated 7lbs lower but probably would have at least the little p on Timeform.
I like Trevelyn's Corn, but the form of his maiden win isn't working out, and then he disappointed behind Champ at Aintree (is held by Champagne Well on that form) but he has looked a project horse and with another summer on his back I expect him to make a large step forward this year, probably over fences after this run.
Harambe has always shown potential but he was a disappointing horse for most of last season. However things have clicked and he has gone on to show that potential. Today he doesn't have anything to find on form, his run behind Getaway Trump off a mark of 133 shows that he can be competitive in this sort of field. The question on Harambe is, will he progress as much as some of this field.
Then we have the solid form of Champagne Well for the in form Fergal O'Brien, yet he is somehow is still a maiden hurdler. His form from Aintree would put him in the contest here, and I think he will continue to improve for racing for this yard. It is interesting that they are putting the tongue tie on, and that might bring further improvement from him. I expect him to run well here, but does he have the star potential of Thyme Hill?
Then we have the current form of Some Day Soon and Win My Wings, both have made hay this year and both should be race fit and ready to go here. The question mark over these two is whether they have the ability of those prior mentioned, and that is probably going to find at least one of them out. Some Day Soon is probably the most likely of the pair to continue an upwards curve, and could make the frame here.
You then have an interesting hurdles debutant from the Tizzard yard, a highly rated chaser for NTD and a potential improver from the Skeltons.
A very interesting race, and one that should prove informative for the season.
I really like Thyme Hill and Trevelyn's Corn, whilst I do think Harambe can continue to progress. I've backed the first two to small stakes here.
Lisnagar Oscar - Is Chasing his game?
I have followed this horse over hurdles and I thought he was probably the best UK staying novice hurdler last season, and whilst he came up short at the festivals, I think he can make into a better chaser in time. He isn't the biggest horse, but he seems to have scope to jump a fence and I think he can make into a nice staying chaser.
Today he faces a hot heat, and it might be that he gets found out, but for an inform trainer I think we should expect a really good debut over fences. Hopefully they will ride him prominently as you often get found out over these fences if you get too far behind.
I had a tiny bet on him for the RSA at the festival in the summer, and I've had a bet on him today to win his novice chase.
Silver shining in the rain?
The other horse to flag and the one that i've backed with the most money is Silver Forever who runs in the closing mares novice hurdle. She impressed me last season in bumpers and I think she will outclass this field. I think she could go on to win the final of this series and provide Nicholls with some ammunition for the spring festivals, but first of all she can win this novice heat and prove she is as good over hurdles as she was in bumpers.
I backed her at odds against, which has gone, and I think we will see something to whet the appetite for the rest of the National Hunt Season.
Excellent write up Nass. I couldn't back Lisnagar Oscar at the cramped odds today and I just wonder whether Truckers Lodge might make experience over fences count?
Possibly, he jumped well in the main that day, but I was really disappointed that he travelled all over Boyhood and couldn't get past him up the straight and that he jumped right a couple of times as well. He has an action that suggests he will like the ground today, but will he have the resolution up the home straight today?
I see Nass gives this horse a mention above but I just can't ignore the price of Harambe in the first at Chepstow. 9/1 looks huge. Win bet for me.
afternoon,fellas!
downpatrick,1 40:
both multifactorial and ya boy ya arrive here in very good form,and both have to be respected,but i can see STONES AND ROSES running a big race.he maybe has a bit to find with the aforementioned duo,but,on his last start last season,he ran quite well in second,and the third that day,darver star has run up a sequence since then,so,with a jolt of progress,he can go very well here.
chepstow,2 10: PERSIAN WAR HURDLE
plenty of untapped potential in this field,but one with already very useful form is HARAMBE.he had a very solid season last season,and especially his last run in second,behind the highly-regarded getaway trump,at sandown,is up with the best form available here.so,if ready to go today,can run a big race..e w player at the very least..
downpatrick,1 40:
both multifactorial and ya boy ya arrive here in very good form,and both have to be respected,but i can see STONES AND ROSES running a big race.he maybe has a bit to find with the aforementioned duo,but,on his last start last season,he ran quite well in second,and the third that day,darver star has run up a sequence since then,so,with a jolt of progress,he can go very well here.
chepstow,2 10: PERSIAN WAR HURDLE
plenty of untapped potential in this field,but one with already very useful form is HARAMBE.he had a very solid season last season,and especially his last run in second,behind the highly-regarded getaway trump,at sandown,is up with the best form available here.so,if ready to go today,can run a big race..e w player at the very least..
Nice write up Nass....definitely starting to warm up now although for me the jumps season doesn't start properly until Cheltenham's October meeting..
As you say the Persian War is a really interesting race. If I was going to back one I would go for Thyme Hill.
As you say the Persian War is a really interesting race. If I was going to back one I would go for Thyme Hill.
Well that was a very delicate ride given to Harambe there. Very strange. Jockey didn't seem to give it any effort or even attempt to move forward when the pace quickened. Will be interested to see if anything comes out of that. Maybe the horse wasn't right
Nice performance from Thyme Hill, Dickie always looked confident. I can see them stepping up to 3 miles with him sooner rather than later. Maybe an early marker for the Albert Bartlett?
chepstow,2 45:
well,the big question is,will very useful ex-flat horse proschema take to this game?if he does,massive shout,but i think,FLIC Ou VOYOU might be the one to be on today.has done well in bumpers last season,goes on the ground,and has already won after a break.so,enough reasons to support him,i think.
well,the big question is,will very useful ex-flat horse proschema take to this game?if he does,massive shout,but i think,FLIC Ou VOYOU might be the one to be on today.has done well in bumpers last season,goes on the ground,and has already won after a break.so,enough reasons to support him,i think.
agree with you on this one, very surprised with the market given that jockeys are calling it soft and/or heavy ground after the first. Surely you want a grinder in that conditions and the Nicholls horse seems to be of that type to me.
I’d actually prefer the other NH bred horses to the jolly too.
Wejdan raced far too freely at the head of affairs and paid for it in the closing stages. As I had suspected Final Song did not stay and faded in the final furlong. Stylistique was also hugely disappointing as the well exposed Rose Of Kildare popped up again with a win.
In the earlier Cornwallis the exposed Good Vibes led home a group of outside shots with warm favourite Platinum Star and second favourite Lazuli both very disappointing. Charlie Appleby is struggling a bit for form and he needs me to oppose more of his horses in order to get some winners because it seems only the one I was against the other day managed to get a win.
In the earlier Cornwallis the exposed Good Vibes led home a group of outside shots with warm favourite Platinum Star and second favourite Lazuli both very disappointing. Charlie Appleby is struggling a bit for form and he needs me to oppose more of his horses in order to get some winners because it seems only the one I was against the other day managed to get a win.
yes,that was by no means a disappointing run by the nicholls horse.he fought on well,and was coming back at the tizzard horse on the run to the line.there are surely races to be won with him this season..
chepstow,3 20:
this is a very tough race,as all 6 look destined to better things over fences,but DE NAME EVADES ME was one of my favourite novice hurdlers last season,and he has built up a very solid profile.so,with his yard amongst the winners,big chance.