Daily Racing Thread Thursday 22nd. August 2019

Thursday's Meetings

Stratford
N/H 8 Races 1:00-5:00p.m.
Chepstow
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:05p.m.
York
Flat 6 Races 1:55-4:50p.m.
Killarney(E)
Mixed 8 Races 4:35-8:10p.m.
Fontwell(E)
N/H 7 Races 4:40-7:50p.m.
Leicester(E)
Flat 6 Races 5:30-8:00p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

I thought Crystal Ocean was the bet of the season in the King George at 4/1 but it doesnt often pay opposing superstars.

Magical 4/1 tomorrow has tempted me again, thats a price you have to take imo, Crystal Ocean was below par today after that gruelling King George and with Longchamp the main aim for Enable, this could be the time to beat her. Magicals form is rock solid and I think Obrien will have her 100% for this, its likely Enable will just have too much for her again but I cant ignore 4/1 about a top class filly in a 2 horse race.

 

What would you price her up as?

 

4/9 Enable
2/1 Magical
14/1 Lah Ti Dar
5000/1 South Sea Pearl

When you consider Magical started 13/8 fav in a field with Crystal Ocean, Sea Of Class and Waldgeist 2 runs back, and she twice only been beaten 3/4L by Enable, I think 4s is a very fair price especially in such a small field with a teammate.

 

POWERSBOMB 16/1 Killarney 6:40
Went in the old tracker after a super performance at Galway. That run was off a near year long break and this useful animal will strip fitter this time. I like the booking of O’Connor and the handicapper has dropped him another pound after Galway. This race is definitely weaker and I think he has a huge chance.

 

I must say I find it a really difficult race to price up, and its one of those rare times that if you added in any other horse to the field (of whatever class), the second favourite would be shorter in the market than she is now. I think i'd have Magical at 3/1 or 7/2 and LTD at 10 or 12s with her course winning form.

 

Off to Headingly for Day 1, so will not be labouring you with my awful tips. But will back Escape Proof at Leicester.

 

My Mates Son told her that she was a Crafty Madam @4.50 in York

10/1 4 places or 9/1 5 places with 365, got to be a good ew shout

As the go to Disclaimer Reads - treat as you will, usual wealth warnings.

 

Stratford starts earlier tomorrow as they’ve split the first race. Going for an afternoon out, so any views would be more than welcome!

 

In the 13.55 York I see Timeform has one with a large "P", Wejdan

Ratings

 

Getting properly smashed into. 8/1 the best you can get now. First objective achieved.

 

@Grade One put up Whitefountainfairy the last time it ran and it was very very unlucky. 8/1 today

 

There were seven entered for the Yorkshire Oaks at the five day stage, so quite why three of those fillies decided not to chase some Group 1 black type when prize money went down to sixth is unclear, especially since one of them was the Oaks winner!

The race is a non betting event as I expect Enable to win her twelfth on the bounce. She has beaten Magical on their previous meetings and I expect her to fill the Excelebration role once more. If the Ballydoyle pacemaker dawdles, Enable can make her own running to prevent this turning into a sprint; and her stablemate Lah Ti Dar simply is not good enough having seemingly not progressed this year after winning on this card in 2018.

As the two big field handicaps on the card have short-priced favourites that I could see winning, I will give them a miss and expect two 20/1 shots.

The betting in the ‘Sir Henry Cecil’ is dominated by Irish raiders but Frosty has only had eight days off and, whilst Dermot Weld has a great record here, I am opposing Search For A Song and sticking with the home team. Bella Vita has been admirably consistent rising up through the handicap ranks to this level, finishing ahead of Shambolic last time, but I think this is within the scope of the more highly tried FRANKELLINA, dropping down after being out-gunned at Epsom and Ascot.

 

Morning

1.55 York-Under The Stars

Each Way @ 11-2 [Betway]

She has done nothing wrong so far

 

being given Kynren & Salayel off a mate who subscribes to a group betting line !!!!
in Both races ive backed Danny T

STAY FROSTY XX

 

is that a tip for the 4.15 at York today ?

 

1.55 Interesting race. I personally think the form of the Queen Mary is very strong and so I will be siding with the favourite Liberty Beach.
Under the Stars is certainly a big threat, but I think a better each way bet at 12/1 could be for Living in the Past, who was a close 3rd to Under the Stars at Ascot.
2.25 Amongst these runners Show me Show me has got the closest to Liberty Beach and so will be my main pick in what looks a competitive race.
3.00 Even more competitive race. I'm becoming a big fan of Daniel Tudhope and so will side with Baltic Baron who ran well at Goodwood and was a close 2nd in a race here at York last month. I also think Firmament and Qaysar could run big races and are worth an each way bet
3.35 ENABLE wins on route to the Arc. Enjoy.
4.15 wide open. Would like Frankellina to bounce back but probably the safest call is Vivionn who ran well at Goodwood
4.50 Chaleur can run well with Harry Bentley on board. Whitefountainfairy clearly has potential

 

Wejdan needs the large P with 19 lbs to catch up on Liberty Beach. Early favourite on her debut, they could not give her away come race time but she defied the drift in good style. It's a huge leap from a maiden race to a Group 2 though and it seems a bit of an ask for such an inexperienced filly on her second start. She is probably going to have to be group 1 quality to overcome this field today.

Under The Stars is only 1 lb behind Liberty Beach on the Racing Post ratings but my concern is how reliable the rating is for her latest win. It was softish ground and the favourite Summer Romance stank the place out at odds-on that day. Dark Lady and Good Vibes have been beaten in lesser company since then and runner-up Aroha is still a maiden rated 100. I have Liberty Beach 7 lbs ahead of Under The Stars here.

Liberty Beach came to my attention in the Hilary Needler at Beverley. She produced a good burst from off the pace to win in soft ground in taking style. With five places up for grabs in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot I felt Liberty Beach was good each-way value at 25/1 and she finished really well to finish 4th, leading home her side of the big field as the 1-2-3 came home on the opposite side of the track. I missed her next time out but she won easily and she won with more in hand than the margin next time out. The Lowther is a speed fillies race in my opinion and as a hold up filly I do not anticipate a problem for Liberty Beach over the extra furlong today. I backed her at 11/4 for today and 15/8 is still worth taking I feel.

Looking at the Queen Mary and seeing fillies like Raffle Prize, Kimari etc in there bolsters confidence that Liberty Beach has been mixing it in better company than Under The Stars and the betting seems to be sharing that view with Under The Stars easy to back. Eight fillies have won from the Queen Mary and winner Raffles Prize was the only one to really give Andre Fabre's Earthlight a race in the Group 1 Prix Morny last weekend.

Liberty Beach looks banker material to me and I've had a few quid extra at 15/8 to add to the 11/4 early doors.

1.55 Liberty Beach 15/8

 

Love destiny in the 2.25 at York impressed me first time out over 7 bred to be a sprinter and was getting the hang of it in the last furlong. I’ll have a couple of quid on history writer needs a bit of pace to run onto been unlucky lately but on a dangerous mark.
Cheers