The point is that Fing was saying Italy only owe 1 trillion. The UK owes nearly 2 trillion. It's clearly not the case that the UK is financially worst off than Italy as the schedule shows. No one wants a no-deal, and I still firmly believe it won't happen because the EU is known to leave it until the last couple of days eg 29th October, before looking to compromise - and they will. But on a worse case basis, the country that would fare worst, in my opinion, is Ireland, not only because the UK is such a big consumer of Irish goods, but also because the UK is the normal route for Ireland to the Continent, and if we're into delays for tariffs and standard checks etc this just delays things. Of course, the EU is still hoping that its agents in the UK like Dominic Grieve will try to scupper no deal, and if possible, Brexit altogether. September is going to a huge month in UK politics.
More rubbish Goldy. I was demonstrating to Kiwi earlier that the UK has almost double the debt of Italy and a higher percentage of debt to GDP ratio than Ireland. At no stage did I say that the UK is financially worse off than Italy or Greece. In my opinion, nothing will change between now and 31st October. The negotiations are complete. Boris has made his bed and very soon he will have to lie in it and take the rap when hundreds of thousands of good people lose their jobs. If I was him, I would call an election now as he will not get re-elected after a no-deal. The country that will be most affected by a no deal is the UK. Get real. Did I see a figure of close to 40%-50% of UK exports go to the EU? I know that we buy more off the UK than we sell to the UK. The UK represents only 14% of Irish exports. Our biggest export market is the U.S. with 41%. Yes, some of our exports travel through the UK on the way to Continental Europe. Also remember, most of Northern Ireland's exports heading for the Continent also travel through Dublin port as that is the quickest route as opposed to going via Scotland which is miles from the ferry ports of Dover etc.. The government over here are looking at developing new shipping routes as part of their no deal strategy. We have some direct ferry routes to France and Spain already and recently a new one opened up between Waterford and Rotterdam.
Has he forgotten that he voted for a deal negotiated with the EU by his then PM. Hes a slimy little ****
The UK's debt is £1.78 trillion. Italian debt is 2.1 trillion Euros. I make the Italian debt bigger, and we have a bigger population. I'll make a sportsman's bet with you, Fing, that the EU folds before Oct 31, so long as the Remain factions in the UK Parliament aren't able to pull the rug on Boris. If he has a GE, it must be after we leave There's nothing in it for the EU. For the UK, we lance the boil and can move on positively with trade deals etc. Of course, there'll be continuing issues with the EU, but we'll be out and, for many in the UK, that will be a huge relief. If you are right about the strength of Ireland's position on a no deal, I will expect to see unity and not criticism of Veradkar in Ireland as Oct 31 approaches. I'll watch closely.
He really pisses me off how he crawls from one person to another, constantly changing what he says, to keep him in a job. Hes a little ****er!
Was interesting listening on the radio this morning about potential positives and negatives of a 'no deal scenario'. Granted, nobody truly knows what exactly will happen but the list of potential negatives totally outweighed the two potential positives that some tory toff said. We can make new deals ( didn't say how long they would take) and we will have complete sovereignty. Just say, everything came true that was mentioned ( positives and negatives) then this country is absolutely ****ed !!!!!!
Bob, It wasn’t that long ago that many on the remain side were saying the most bizarre things like planes wouldn’t be able to fly. I therefore very much doubt everything mentioned will come true.
I agree mate. What I'm trying to do now is keep an open mind. I'm pretending to believe everything from both sides of the arguement and still.it doesnt paint a pretty picture
I’m going the other way mate and believing **** all what either side says. We are now in such a corner that whatever happens now, many in the country are gonna feel aggrieved. We are a divided nation.
In all honesty I think the EU dictated, didn’t negotiate and a shameful remainer PM thought she could hoodwink parliament into accepting a “new treaty “ not an agreement, and secondly her treacherous deal was rejected by members from all sides not just Tory M P’s. But, again in my opinion over the coming weeks we will see the EU start to backtrack because no matter how you voted or feel the truth of the matter is that the EU cannot afford to lose the 39 billion divorce payment and our trade, remember we purchase roughly £150 / 175 billion worth of goods more from them than they purchase from us annually, goods that we can in effect purchase from outside the EU under WTO regulations. We are now in the process of watching the final few hands in the biggest game of poker in the world, is our player at the table Boris Bluffing, or does he hold all 4 aces, remember on the 31st October we go all in, can the EU afford to call and hope for a split pot or is it really winner takes all !!!
The figure of 1 trillion for Italian debt was stated in Kiwi's post number 35768. It also said that Ireland owed 865 billion. Both of these figures were obviously extremely wide of the mark. In Ireland's case, it overstated our debt levels by 400%. The General Election could be called any day now if he loses his majority of one. It just takes one back bencher to snuff it (not wishing that to happen) or one to lose the party whip etc. It may not have to wait until after you leave. I understand people in the UK want out and the feeling is mutual on the EU side - I will use the same language as you, to lance the boil/huge relief etc. everybody wants to see it finished. Ireland's strength on a no deal stems to the fact that peace on our island is of the utmost importance to everybody here. It has contributed to economic prosperity on both sides of the island. If we return to the troubles of the past, our reputation as a stable country to live in, work in, visit, trade with etc will be destroyed. As regards unity, the current minority Fine Gael Government is a government of National unity with Fianna Fail. Remember, they are sworn enemies, probably more so than Labour and the Tories over there. They have a pact that the current Government will last as long as it takes to get Brexit complete. We know both a deal and no deal Brexit will not be good for us but peace here is more important. Some people say Brexit offers us lot of opportunities as we will become the only English speaking country in the EU and our natural competition for attracting foreign direct investment will be eliminated so U.S. companies especially will be more attracted to come here. Will Varadkar get criticism if it is a no deal? Sure he will from certain sections, most notably the farmers. The are the section of our society with the most to lose but the EU is promising them help if they suffer badly. As I said, Varadkar's government is a minority government and the polls are suggesting he would get turfed out of office if there was a general election tomorrow mainly because the Health service is not improving despite us increasing spending by billions and a housing crisis and increasing rents.. A no deal Brexit will almost certainly mean the end for him as Taoiseach but he is young enough to return a few years down the line perhaps.You can watch closely Goldy but I think Varadkar's party have spent the last 8 years in power and I think the general feeling is we need a different party/parties in power to come up with new ideas especially for health and housing. You can keep your bet. I work too hard to gamble. I think the EU are serious that the talking is done. I don't think the Brexiteers in the tory party are very good at listening to what they are being told by the EU. I also don't think Boris has much credibility with European leaders considering he voted for the agreement in parliament and now is asking for it to be changed. There is a touch of hypocritism there. If you're right and the EU fold, I'll buy a pint if I ever get to meet you at a match.
I doubt Boris will call a GE now, when Parliament is in recess. And I don't think he'd want one before we leave on 31 Oct, although there is talk today about a GE on Nov 1. If there is a vote of no confidence in the Johnson govt in Sept, Parliament has 14 days to form an alternative govt, which Corbyn has stipulated has to have him as PM if he is to cooperate - it ain't going to happen, so Boris will go on. I understand the need to avoid a no border between Ireland and N Ireland at all costs. I would have thought a backstop time limited to 5 years would give time for a technical solution to be arrived at to avoid the border. If the EU offered this, I think the withdrawal deal would get through Parliament. I just have the impression that many Irish feel Varadkar is not handling the Brexit issue well. No deal would be a disaster for Ireland, and unlike the UK, would have no upside. Sorry you won't take my sporting bet. I note that you feel the EU will not resile from their position. September/October will be fascinating. Yes, Boris is probably a hypocrite and personally, I've never been a fan due to his inability to bother with detail. But he's clever at getting good people around him to do the work, as he did as Mayor of London. European leaders come and go. If he lasts, and he will if he delivers Brexit, Boris will win some leaders around, not all (The French). Thanks for the offer of the pint, and I hope I get to meet you at a game - although if we leave the EU and all parties can move forward, it's me that should be buying them.
Mike Graham Being called arrogant by Dominic Grieve is a bit like being called a bad doctor by Harold Shipman
Happy to stand corrected but my understanding of the Fixed Term Parliament Act is that if a motion or no confidence is passed, and no new Government can command the confidence of the house within 14 days as you suggest is likely (I agree), then an early election takes place. Only way round this would be for Boris to win another confidence vote within that 14 days.
Yes, I pretty sure you're right. The date of the election following a no-confidence vote is a matter for the prime minister, and given the tight timetable, Boris would probably decide on a post-31 October polling day. The Guardian states - Some no-deal objectors argue that under the convention of “purdah”, the election period during which civil servants are not supposed to push through any major policy changes, no major Brexit decisions could be taken. However, Johnson could argue that a no-deal departure on 31 October is already the legal default, and so is not a policy change.
