Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 1st. May 2019

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Some shorties at Ascot with Wesley Ward's Lady Pauline warming up for a tilt at the Queen Mary in the Royal Meeting via this trial race. At 1/3 Fav I will pass and see how she performs in her learning curve towards The Queen Mary where I have opposed her with Godolphin's Chasing Dreams. Already 2/1 Fav for the Queen Mary, a strong performance will no doubt see her even shorter for the big one but it doesn't always pan out for Wesley Ward and his Chelsea Cloisters was only 11th in the Queen Mary last year. The runner up to Chasing Dreams, Good Vibes, came out and won next time, flooring an Archie Watson odds-on shot at Salisbury. Beaten 5 lengths by Chasing Dreams, I reckon the bones of the Godolphin filly's form leaves Lady Pauline needing to hit about 100 on ratings to justify her position in the Queen Mary market.

Calyx has been much talked about and debated about regarding targets. He faces a straight forward looking task tomorrow with the filly at the bottom the only one with comparable form. Signora Cabello was a fast filly last year but she is small and looks a strong candidate for a horse to have problems progressing at the age of three. She was second in the Prix Morny but that is a group 1 race that has worked out horribly since. The Prix Robert Papin won by Signora Cabbello has also worked out horrendously for a Group 2 contest. Beaten a long way on her final start at two, I expect Signora Cabello to be a big drifter from her 10/3 odds at the moment. Well Done Fox was generally pretty decent last season and perhaps has a little scope yet at 6F. I feel he is the forecast bet behind Calyx, who will be mightily disappointing if he cannot win here.

For a bet I like Fashion's Star in the 2.50 Ascot. Roger Charlton is hardly my favourite and he never quite seems to deliver the goods with potential Classic horses. Fashion's Star is by Sea The Stars and she made a very encouraging start to her career last September. She won her race decisively in the end that day and looked like the step up to a mile should help her. The biggest worry is the trainer taking her forward in the Spring. She was originally a possible for the Fred Darling on the way to the Guineas but that hasn't happened. This is offset by this race being an easier target.

Michael Stoute's Queen Power is popular and she won her only race for Ralph Beckett before transferring to the maestro. By Shamardal and open to a lot of improvement her odds of only 2/1 are a bit off-putting with Stoute generally very patient in bringing them along. There are other promising fillies in there and another Sea The Stars filly in Baba Ganouj but she seems easy to back and I prefer Charlton's filly as a speedier looking sort with 7F form in the book.

In the end Fashion's Star got the nod because she looked physically impressive and finished off her race in good style. At 4/1 she was my selection on a decent card but with limited betting options.

2.50 Ascot Fashion's Star 4/1
 
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Morning

Two Maiden colts catch my eye at Southwell

2.00-Natty Night @ 3-1
3.10-Hiroshima @ 4-1

1pt win on each with Bet 365 plus each way double
 
Bellshill for me Is very abit overpriced in the gold cup - interesting that ruby chose him at Cheltenham and also he chose him too when Kemboy won at Leopardstown too But we all know bellshill and Cheltenham just don’t get on. So his gold cup run can be easily forgiven looking back at it even tho he looked good until he made 3 quick mistakes disrupted his rhythm and ruby called it a day also the fact ruby pulled him meant he didn’t have hard race. I reckon he could have gone to aintree but this race they probably had in mind for him too after Cheltenham. His record at punchestown and the festival reads 111 including when winning this race last year and who was on last year, David Mullins who keeps the ride on him. Granted this looks a stronger race but he obviously likes punchestown, he will throw in the odd mistake however if he can sort his jumping back to this race last year he could give the top two something to think about and 11/2 is an EW bet to nothing really coz I can’t see him out the top 3
 
Wooly, I kind of agree with all you’ve said but isn’t the price quite poor given the two he is opposing?

At the price I’m willing to leave the race, but I hope Bellshill wins for the Wylies who’ve had such horrible luck in recent years.
 
NassauBoard said:
Wooly, I kind of agree with all you’ve said but isn’t the price quite poor given the two he is opposing?

At the price I’m willing to leave the race, but I hope Bellshill wins for the Wylies who’ve had such horrible luck in recent years.
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Tbf mate I have a had a very small bit on Bellshill and that’s it. More a race to sit back and enjoy really. But if you think he went off 9/1 in March and is now 6/1 in this I think it is about the right price as I mentioned I can’t see him out the first 3 and could very much serve it up to the front two. And also the Wylies do deserve a Change of luck too.
 
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18:40 Punchestown - Mt Leinster

(Not a bad run 9-days ago after a 79-day break. Might get his revenge on Golden Spread this time? Has a good chance if he can settle a bit better. Will have a bit on now at the generally-available 8-1, and an e/w later if SP odds are longer.)
 
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Yay, it's May! :emoticon-0102-bigsm :emoticon-0158-time:

Barney Roy didn't have the necessary credentials for stud life, poor lad, so, gelded, he's back on the racetrack today ( Ascot 4.25 ), let's see how he gets on.

I'm scratching my head for targets for my well-earned pocket money today, so I'll stick to Southwell and hope that Red Invader (12.00 ) can make course experience tell. At a much bigger price, I'll have a go with Diamond Pursuit in the 1.30 to place; has something to prove and maybe not the best for win purposes, but at the price the course experience and trainer stats for this course could see the horse get a place - Bet 365 are letting me have 40/1 for 5 places.

Just a brief word of congratulations to Tranmere Rovers; first season back in the league and finished in the play off places, very nice indeed!

Good Luck to all today. :emoticon-0148-yes: :emoticon-0162-coffe
 
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woolcombe-folly007 said:
Am off to the wonderful track that is Brighton this evening <laugh> any selections are warmly received
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After a month of appalling results the Blake barn have seemingly turned things around and won with their last 2 runners (albeit both in the NH sphere). Their latest runner is at the meet tonight – Blue Harmony (7.25). Karl Burke trained the filly for her first 13 runs (1 win) with her ‘new’ stable taking over after claiming the old girl at the backend of August ’18. Blue Harmony’s formline since being in Wiltshire is -97023.

Runs off a very, very lowly 47 tonight (was rated as high as 71 just 15 months ago) but she’s well-bred with the dam being a half-sister to a multiple Grade 1 winner in the US. Eye-catchingly everytime Blue Harmony has run for the Blake’s, so far, she has been apprentice ridden. That is not the case this eve as Nicky Mackay takes over.

Is seemingly unconsidered in the market though at 20/1 – and drifting wildly in fact as you could have got as low as 7’s last evening!

I’ll stop waffling (didn’t mean to go on as long as this) and conclude by saying I won’t be backing her but there will probably be a lot, lot, lot worse longshots at the meet than Blue Harmony this evening. The old girl could even reward each-way support.
 
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I'd intended to post on the Southwell thread, but a longer look at that card has led to its going into the Too Difficult drawer. However, the law of unintended consequences then sent me on to Ponte, for which I have some affection (see below). An idle curiosity about why Theodore Ladd would ride in the first three races at Southwell and then go on to Ponte for a single (4.45) made me look into that race, and I think it may contain a bet.

It's a long time (1997) since Les Eyre bellowed Far Ahead home in the Ebor (the horses in second to fifth that afternoon were trained respectively by Gosden, Cumani, Barry Hills and Sir Michael - that's how good Les was back in the day). But he can still sort one out, and it looks to me as if Highly Sprung might bring home the beer money. They were always going to be too quick for him over 5f here last time (the ATR form describes the going as good to soft, but it was definitely good to firm - who employs these people ?). Today's 6f should suit him a lot better, and he's at last dropped to a mark below 70 - in July 2018 he was stuck in the low 80s. The No.1 draw isn't what you'd pick for a slow starter, but I'm hoping that the small field will let him see daylight by halfway.

(Boring Digression Alert): the area round Pontefract was (is?) ideal for the cultivation of the liquorice plant - hence Pontefract cakes - but in World War II, those and liquorice allsorts were subject to rationing because their recipes needed sugar, and they were classed as confectionery. However, once the liquorice extract had been taken from the root by boiling, the root itself could be dried, cut into chunks, and sold without the need for sweet coupons. You had to chew this unattractive lump for about ten minutes to get any hint of a liquorice-taste, but you did feel as if you'd somehow beaten the system. Anyway, I never see the name Pontefract without feeling a lump of MDF at the back of my throat. Happy days (not).

Highly Sprung is currently (12.00 noon) about 5-2, which seems on the short side, but I expect the market to flatten out by post time, and 3-1 feels about right. Good luck to all workers on this International Labour Day (you retired parasites too, Stick).
 
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Sir Barney Chuckles said:
After a month of appalling results the Blake barn have seemingly turned things around and won with their last 2 runners (albeit both in the NH sphere). Their latest runner is at the meet tonight – Blue Harmony (7.25). Karl Burke trained the filly for her first 13 runs (1 win) with her ‘new’ stable taking over after claiming the old girl at the backend of August ’18. Blue Harmony’s formline since being in Wiltshire is -97023.

Runs off a very, very lowly 47 tonight (was rated as high as 71 just 15 months ago) but she’s well-bred with the dam being a half-sister to a multiple Grade 1 winner in the US. Eye-catchingly everytime Blue Harmony has run for the Blake’s, so far, she has been apprentice ridden. That is not the case this eve as Nicky Mackay takes over.

Is seemingly unconsidered in the market though at 20/1 – and drifting wildly in fact as you could have got as low as 7’s last evening!

I’ll stop waffling (didn’t mean to go on as long as this) and conclude by saying I won’t be backing her but there will probably be a lot, lot, lot worse longshots at the meet than Blue Harmony this evening. The old girl could even reward each-way support.
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Blue Harmony now a non-runner, unfortunately. 9 now at the meet.
 
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Fob has interesting runner at punchestown with paddy’s paying six places at 20/1 this is a stonking bet. Let’s just hope Conor brace weighs in properly this time.btw did anyone see his ride for Sophie leech yesterday? This boy is going places.
 
All the money is for Queen Power this morning but 5/4 is too short for my money. Maybe she is a bit special but she's priced as if she has already proved that.

Over in France Polydream is a warm favourite and has the strongest form but I am giving a chance to Mer Et Nuages, who probably needed his comeback race at Maisons Laffitte when failing by just a head. The horse had a setback last season but had looked progressive and held potential improvement at 4YO. I doubt Fabre would have had him fully wound up first time up and I just felt 10/1 was a price worth taking a chance on. French Guineas winner Olmedo disappointed in the main afterwards, with a poor effort in the French Derby in particular. A bit to prove now after a comeback 4th to The Revenant this season. Ostilio was very progressive last year but I am a bit concerned as to how strong his Group 2 win was and this looks tougher. The Crisford team are 2/20 this past two weeks and only batting at half their annual average.

A chance is taken on Mer Et Nuages to step up.

In the Prix Greffulhe Starmaniac is generally evens favourite but I didn't feel it was a strong race he won last time. Roman Candle ran in a Group 3 race last time and the horse who was last there, Urwald, came out and won a Listed race next time out, with hot Favourite Epic Hero in 4th place. At this stage I felt Roman Candle represented a better risk/reward ratio at odds of 11/4.

3.25 Saint Cloud Mer Et Nuages 10/1

4.35 Saint Cloud Roman Candle 11/4
 
Lady Pauline was beaten and pushed out to 10/1 for the Queen Mary. Despite this, there is still plenty of support for Wesley Ward's Anna's Fast. I'm happy enough with Chasing Dreams for Royal Ascot and she was cut to as low as 5/1 for the Royal Meeting. The general opinion was that Lady Pauline didn't last home today and that bodes badly for the big one at the same course. These US horses generally start in 4 and a half furlong races and sometimes go off well odds on. Today's 20/1 winner had won a modest Thirsk race last time and that race has worked out poorly since. Ventura Rebel was also giving Lady Pauline 5 lbs today and it doesn't rally look like Lady Pauline is worth trying in the big one based on today's showing.
 
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Fashion's Star was beaten after 100 yards. She pulled ferociously hard and was never going to last. I should have known better really. Roger Charlton seems pretty feckless with these promising 2YO horses year-in, year out.

The hot favourite was just held off but she will do better next time. Too short for me today but at least she ran a race. The Charlton filly looked clueless and where to go with her now is a big question as that was pathetic today.
 
afternoon,gents!

ascot,3 25: SAGARO STAKES

well,what can you say about DEE EX BEE? he was one of the unluckiest horse of last season,having been beaten by some exceptional performers,the best form surely his seconds to masar in the derby and then to melbourne cup hero cross counter a bit later on.that is probably the best piece of form available in this field,the big question is just: will he stay this new trip? personally,i think,its worth trying,because what i like about the johnston inmates most,they are very tough and durable,so a big run can be expected.
 
I’m wondering whether Verdana Blue can carry over her superb jumps for to the flat? Should be a fascinating race <ok>
 
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