Off Topic Politics Thread

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Onionman said:
Not sure that'd be necessary. This deal stands zero chance of getting through Parliament - too many sides dislike it. So it might come down to a no-deal versus remain decision. The EU has already hinted that they will be happy to extend the Article 50 deadline if necessary for serious reasons (other than just wanting a delay).

If that happens Leave's campaign will be rather hamstrung. No £350M for the NHS, no claims that leaving the EU will be easy, no claims that trade deals can be done over a cup of tea. And, hanging over it all would be the spectre of the horror of a WTO Brexit. No matter what our resident propagandist tells you about how easy it'll make it to reduce the price of oranges, the government itself has plans to requisition ferries, use troops to distribute food and use the M26 as a lorry park. They'll be ****ed.

Against that will be a feeling of "so you're asking us to vote again until we get it right" working against the Remain campaign. And they'd need to be a damned sight more positive than last time in their campaigning.

Interesting times.

Vin
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for me democracy is always necessary.

the whole asking us to vote again until we get thing is simply reducing an advantage leave had as you can easily have multiple votes to try and leave over a number years but once you leave you cant easily rejoin and will cost you a lot to do so. its why it should be; keep voting until you get a super majority that wont change in 1 year... similar to many countries constitutional changes
 
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If there's a General Election there's a very good chance that Labour won't get in. If the Tories win (still ahead in the opinion polls) the ERG nutters will take it as a mandate for a no-deal Brexit and we're economically done for (apart from the cheap citrus fruit which will, no doubt, be a great solace in the dark days to come).

Can't Labour see that saying "yes, we'll let the population have a final say on the deal" will kill off much of the poison inside their party? They don't have to whip people (even Jezzer) to support remaining. Offering the vote gets them off the hook. And probably gets them plenty of votes.

Vin
 
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Vin.....as an out and out stayer......wouldn’t it be Better to have a soft deal rather than a no deal.....for you guys? I’m extremely doubtful your going to get another chance for an in or out vote. Although what do I know.....
Another point I’ve been thinking to......neither of the main parties wanted out........so imo.....who ever was negotiating wouldn’t they automatically go for the lightest Brexit they can get away with?
 
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I still think there will be a 2nd referendum, after all the population was asked to vote on something so big but with so little information.....remain and leave campaigns both lied about facts and figures.
So disclosure of what people need to know ....remain or leave and without the hidden agendas of media outlets and politicians.
Then again scrap that.....fancy the media and politicians telling the truth for once
 
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Beddytare said:
Vin.....as an out and out stayer......wouldn’t it be Better to have a soft deal rather than a no deal.....for you guys? I’m extremely doubtful your going to get another chance for an in or out vote. Although what do I know.....
Another point I’ve been thinking to......neither of the main parties wanted out........so imo.....who ever was negotiating wouldn’t they automatically go for the lightest Brexit they can get away with?
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Yes, but it'll never get through Parliament. So we need to deal with the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. Which, tragically, looks like no deal is a-comin'.



Once the stock and money markets start to react to the prospect of No Deal being likely, it'll concentrate minds of MPs wonderfully.

No amount of sculpting public opinion could cope with the anger people will feel when MINI shuts down for a month (their plan for the start of No Deal) followed by a collapse in sales when a 10% tariff is applied to their exports. Or when we start to run out of isotopes for cancer treatment (so deeply technical a problem that I bet there isn't a Brexiter MP who understands it). Or medicines. Or the government requisitioning ferries to guarantee food supplies. Or troops being used to guarantee food supplies. Or the Police being put on alert for public disturbances. Or a hard border between Northern and Southern Ireland. Relying on a WTO court that will not be quorate (again, no-one on the Brexit side cares about this) by the end of 2019. Flight cancellations (again for deeply technical reasons about plane maintenance personnel, too detailed for the ERG to care about - they just say it'll be fine).

These are all consequences outlined in the government's own planning documents. Not "project fear" but in the government's own assessment of the impact of a No Deal exit. And these are just a subset. They don't include a mass flight of capital out of London. Or the M26 lorry park plans.

But don't worry, citrus fruit will be cheap*.




So, even our dozy MPs will wake up when No Deal is the only option remaining. Even they will be scared of what's coming. So extending Article 50 and holding a referendum (thus passing the hot potato back to the UK population) will suddenly look very enticing.

Vin

* ©Imps
 
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The only way I can see out of this total mess is a 2nd referendum.

I know the leavers will say the vote has already been cast and you can't keep voting until you get the outcome you want, but I firmly believe a 2nd vote now would give a lot, lot more comprehensive result (either way). There is so much more info out there now, we actually know what we are voting for and the potential outcome of our actions.

Currently, it is a shambles. Even Southampton Football Club wouldn't have made such a mess of it.
 
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thereisonlyoneno7 said:
The only way I can see out of this total mess is a 2nd referendum.

I know the leavers will say the vote has already been cast and you can't keep voting until you get the outcome you want, but I firmly believe a 2nd vote now would give a lot, lot more comprehensive result (either way). There is so much more info out there now, we actually know what we are voting for and the potential outcome of our actions.

Currently, it is a shambles. Even Southampton Football Club wouldn't have made such a mess of it.
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I’m thinking, put Les Reed in charge of negotiations with the EU?
 
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thereisonlyoneno7 said:
The only way I can see out of this total mess is a 2nd referendum.

I know the leavers will say the vote has already been cast and you can't keep voting until you get the outcome you want, but I firmly believe a 2nd vote now would give a lot, lot more comprehensive result (either way). There is so much more info out there now, we actually know what we are voting for and the potential outcome of our actions.

Currently, it is a shambles. Even Southampton Football Club wouldn't have made such a mess of it.
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Realistically, the only choice to put on the 2nd referendum would be:

1. No-deal Hard Brexit
2. Remain

Both Theresa May and the EU negotiators have said that the Draft Agreement is the best possible deal for both sides, but it has zero chance of being adopted by Parliament. It may not even survive until the Summit on 25th November, if May is thrown out by her own party madmen. If the deal fails to get through Parliament, there will have to be a Confidence vote, and as the Confidence & Supply arrangement with the DUP effectively died yesterday, the government will fall. As Vin says above, Labour would be mad not to put a 2nd referendum in their election manifesto, but let’s not **** around with any Draft Agreement options, as they will be dead in the water. It’s either Hard Brexit, with the economic and social ruin that follows, or Remain now. That is the choice, and it probably always has been.
 
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Another point if the nutters get rid of May.

A contested Tory leadership campaign lasts nine weeks (more if more candidates). Kicked off now, that would mean we flop about until mid-January. Then the new leader negotiates another deal, gets it through Parliaments (ours and the EU) and implements it. All in about 70 days. Need I make any more comment?

Vin
 
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Onionman said:
Another point if the nutters get rid of May.

A contested Tory leadership campaign lasts nine weeks (more if more candidates). Kicked off now, that would mean we flop about until mid-January. Then the new leader negotiates another deal, gets it through Parliaments (ours and the EU) and implements it. All in about 70 days. Need I make any more comment?

Vin
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The other thing about a leadership contest is that if May is defeated, she obviously has to resign as PM, but then the Queen has to send for someone who can command a majority in the HoC. Without the DUP/SNP/Lib Dem’s, or a coalition with Labour, who might that be?
 
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ChilcoSaint said:
The other thing about a leadership contest is that if May is defeated, she obviously has to resign as PM, but then the Queen has to send for someone who can command a majority in the HoC. Without the DUP/SNP/Lib Dem’s, or a coalition with Labour, who might that be?
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Oh Lordy, hadn't thought about that.

Vin
 
Here's a possibly timely reminder of what the Brexit bunch promised. In their own words. Well worth a minute to read in light of what's actually happening.

The problem is that these people sounded credible. It's not a sign of stupidity or gullibility to take these words at face value. These people were promising to make eveything OK and it was reasonable to believe them. Now we can see the untruth in what they are saying (look around at what's happening). It's time to realise that they lied through their teeth and that it's OK to change your mind.


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1062773934192553984.html



Vin
 
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Onionman said:
Oh Lordy, hadn't thought about that.

Vin
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So you have the GE campaign to add to the delay caused by the leadership contest, which knocks the 70 days down to a maximum of 7 weeks. And that’s assuming the Tories win the election, which is hardly a given.
 
Just a thought.....a stupid one maybe........if they don’t get this through parliament.......what’s your thoughts on an alternative referendum?
I’m assuming they still want to carry on with the original referendum result. If so if Teresa May calls for a referendum of the people on her negotiations which mean either accept her proposals or exit entirely how would people vote I wonder??
 
Beddytare said:
Just a thought.....a stupid one maybe........if they don’t get this through parliament.......what’s your thoughts on an alternative referendum?
I’m assuming they still want to carry on with the original referendum result. If so if Teresa May calls for a referendum of the people on her negotiations which mean either accept her proposals or exit entirely how would people vote I wonder??
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That would be a massive problem, if the only thing the public could vote for was her deal or no deal.
But I wouldn’t put it past her right wing colleagues pushing for a vote on that basis.
 
St Badger said:
That would be a massive problem, if the only thing the public could vote for was her deal or no deal.
But I wouldn’t put it past her right wing colleagues pushing for a vote on that basis.
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To be honest that was what I was thinking.......could that be her fall back position?
 
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