Off Topic Politics Thread

[SaintStu]

No doubt now things are getting difficult people will change their minds. You still cannot have another referendum just because things have got difficult. The choice was made and we have no choice but to get on with it.
Who knows maybe the EU will come up with something at the last minute that can provoke another referendum, but not as it stands at the moment??

Beddy - I disagree. With greater understanding of the issue and/or if public opinion changes, it is justifiable to have another referendum or general election to officially record that change. In the case where parties themselves are split on the direction, leaves a new referendum as probably the best choice. But to say we have made our choice we just have to see it through is not true.
I don't think it will happen as it will be political suicide of T. May and possibly lead to a fragmentation of all political parties.

 

[Schad]

Maybe that is why the people voted the way they did a lot of people have very little trust in what politicians say in situations like this.
You cannot surely deny that. As you or someone else said the remain camp didn't have a very good campaign.

If one has very little trust in what politicians say in situations like this, then perhaps it was a poor decision to trust the ones that claimed that a massively-influential multilateral arrangement could be unwound with little trouble or consequence.

 

[Onionman]

I know this article is two pages long. I know it contains lots of dull things called "facts" and little in the way of glossy "it'll be alright on the night" fluff, but if you want to understand why Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Redmond, et al are barmy to suggest a no deal Brexit, please read it. It's written by a former trade negotiator (who, incidentally, is pretty anti-EU but is also anti-madness).

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/201...nsense-of-jacob-rees-mogg-s-new-press-release *

Vin

* Warning - doesn't open properly in Firefox.

 

[Onionman]

'Tens of thousands' of jobs at risk, Jaguar Land Rover boss tells PM

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-jobs-at-risk-jaguar-land-rover-boss-tells-pm

Meanwhile:

Brexiters say 'nothing to fear' about crashing out of EU with no deal

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/11/brexiters-jacob-rees-mogg-no-deal-chuck-chequers



Have we taken back control yet?

Vin

 

[Beddy]

If we don't have a reasonable deal then things will be difficult. But not just for the UK. The Euro zone will suffer very badly. Its my understanding we import more from the EU than we export. The car market in Europe will possibly suffer badly I'm told, as well as the likes of Jaguar and land Rover.
I dont understand with all the facts that have been uttered about the UK. Very little if any has been mentioned about the possible losses in Europe on here.
Unless of course I missed that particular part of the discussion.

 

[San Tejón]

Stumbled upon this on Facebook. The last minute or so is so accurate.

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[Onionman]

If we don't have a reasonable deal then things will be difficult. But not just for the UK. The Euro zone will suffer very badly. Its my understanding we import more from the EU than we export. The car market in Europe will possibly suffer badly I'm told, as well as the likes of Jaguar and land Rover.
I dont understand with all the facts that have been uttered about the UK. Very little if any has been mentioned about the possible losses in Europe on here.
Unless of course I missed that particular part of the discussion.

44% of our exports go to the EU.

8% of the EU's exports come to the UK.

Ref cars, there was a time (before the EU commission launched a case in the ECJ) when manufacturers routinely charged 15-20% more for cars sold into the UK. Didn't stop us buying them. If we go out with no deal, that'll probably just happen again and we'll pay it. Bear in mind that under WTO rules, cars attract a tariff of 10% but car parts are tarriffed at 7.5% so even British built cars will be hammered.

It'll be fine.

Vin

 

[Beddy]

44% of our exports go to the EU.

8% of the EU's exports come to the UK.

Ref cars, there was a time (before the EU commission launched a case in the ECJ) when manufacturers routinely charged 15-20% more for cars sold into the UK. Didn't stop us buying them. If we go out with no deal, that'll probably just happen again and we'll pay it. Bear in mind that under WTO rules, cars attract a tariff of 10% but car parts are tarriffed at 7.5% so even British built cars will be hammered.

It'll be fine.

Vin

Not sure where you got your figures from they seem to be partially inaccurate.........According to the BBC website.....I quote

• The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2017, UK exports to the EU were £274 billion (44% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £341 billion (53% of all UK imports).
• The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, increasing slightly to 44% in 2017.
• The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 58% in 2002 to 51% in 2011 before increasing to 53% in 2017.
• https://www.acea.be/.../motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners
  19 Mar 2018 - 80% of the UK's car production is exported, of which 54% goes to EU member states. In 2017, the United Kingdom produced 1.75 million motor vehicles, exporting 800,000 of these within the European Union. The other way around, the EU countries represent 82% of the UK's motor vehicle volume, worth €38 billion.

 

[SaintinSerbia]

Not sure where you got your figures from they seem to be partially inaccurate.........According to the BBC website.....I quote

• The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2017, UK exports to the EU were £274 billion (44% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £341 billion (53% of all UK imports).
• The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, increasing slightly to 44% in 2017.
• The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 58% in 2002 to 51% in 2011 before increasing to 53% in 2017.

As far as I can see you're both right according to your figures. Both say 44% of UK exports go to the EU. 8% of EU exports go to the UK and 53% of UK imports are from the EU are 2 different things?

 

[ImpSaint]

44% of our exports go to the EU.

8% of the EU's exports come to the UK.

Ref cars, there was a time (before the EU commission launched a case in the ECJ) when manufacturers routinely charged 15-20% more for cars sold into the UK. Didn't stop us buying them. If we go out with no deal, that'll probably just happen again and we'll pay it. Bear in mind that under WTO rules, cars attract a tariff of 10% but car parts are tarriffed at 7.5% so even British built cars will be hammered.

It'll be fine.

Vin

Which ignores the fact that those tariffs are not a fixed tariff. The UK is free to not charge a tariff if they wish. There is a constant theme from those that oppose Brexit and want to ridicule WTO that it is some sort of fixed tariff..........which it isn't. We don't have to be a protectionist setup like the EU. Even if they decide to slap tariffs on exports from us we do not have to reciprocate.

This was even debunked today on the news for the umpteenth time. Suggestions that we could choose not to put tariffs on any food we don't produce. Things like Oranges, rice etc. But choose to put tariffs on things that we produce (thus protecting our farmers.)

 

[ImpSaint]

As far as I can see you're both right according to your figures. Both say 44% of UK exports go to the EU. 8% of EU exports go to the UK and 53% of UK imports are from the EU are 2 different things?

No they are the same thing. 8% of the EU exports come here which make up 53% of our imports.

So 8% of EU exports are 53% of our imports.

However it is still not clear (to me) if that actually includes a chunk of non EU product that comes here via the EU. I remember it being stated that some of of what came through Rotterdam was included in that figure but I have yet to hear anyone clear it up as fact or myth.

 

[Onionman]

Not sure where you got your figures from they seem to be partially inaccurate.........According to the BBC website.....I quote

• The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2017, UK exports to the EU were £274 billion (44% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £341 billion (53% of all UK imports).
• The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, increasing slightly to 44% in 2017.
• The share of UK imports accounted for by the EU fell from 58% in 2002 to 51% in 2011 before increasing to 53% in 2017.
• https://www.acea.be/.../motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners
  19 Mar 2018 - 80% of the UK's car production is exported, of which 54% goes to EU member states. In 2017, the United Kingdom produced 1.75 million motor vehicles, exporting 800,000 of these within the European Union. The other way around, the EU countries represent 82% of the UK's motor vehicle volume, worth €38 billion.

The EU in total exports much more than we do so their exports to the UK (8%) are a smaller percentage of their total exports than they are a percentage (53%) of our total imports.

On motor trade it's a slightly different number: The 27 other EU member states produced 19.69 million motor vehicles in 2017 and exported 2.3 million (11.7%) of these to the United Kingdom.

We're an important (but not vital) part of their business might be a good way to put it.

However, to say the EU will be worse hit than us is fantasy.

Vin

 

[Onionman]

Which ignores the fact that those tariffs are not a fixed tariff. The UK is free to not charge a tariff if they wish. There is a constant theme from those that oppose Brexit and want to ridicule WTO that it is some sort of fixed tariff..........which it isn't. We don't have to be a protectionist setup like the EU. Even if they decide to slap tariffs on exports from us we do not have to reciprocate.

This was even debunked today on the news for the umpteenth time. Suggestions that we could choose not to put tariffs on any food we don't produce. Things like Oranges, rice etc. But choose to put tariffs on things that we produce (thus protecting our farmers.)

I normally ignore your posts but this bit is utter bilgewater. The EU won't "decide" to do it. I know that fits your "Big Bad EU" story but they are obliged to do it unless they choose not to. If they don't charge WTO tariffs on our exports of a class of supply they cannot charge anyone else either. It's called most-favoured nation. Look it up. The mad hatter Brexiters keep saying that the EU would have to choose to charge us tariffs under WTO when the question for the EU is actually, "do we want to reduce this tariff for every single country in the world in order to keep the British happy?"

And the same applies to us. We have to charge on every import of a class of product or on none.

Also, despite your mob's ouright lies today, WTO does NOT protect against non-tariff barriers. Any country can pass a law saying that, for example, all of product X must contain, say, fireproof materials mainly produced by that country (just an example, I know how you love to jump on specifics but this is purely to illustrate, so humour me). Much more effective than a tariff and even if someone goes legal it gets tied up for fifteen years in the WTO court (that your other mate Trump is close to making inquorate so there'll likely never be a ruling).

Oranges. Why is it always bloody oranges? I'm beginning to believe that everyone who voted for Brexit did it for cheap Jaffas. Forget the £350million for the NHS, they should have painted ****ing mandarins on the big bus of lies.

An orderly Brexit's going to be bad but WTO would be an unmitigated disaster. Don't be taken in by the propaganda over it.

No-one campaigned for leave meaning WTO so to suggest there's any kind of mandate for it is an utter lie.

Vin

 

[ImpSaint]

I normally ignore your posts but this bit is utter bilgewater. The EU won't "decide" to do it. I know that fits your "Big Bad EU" story but they are obliged to do it unless they choose not to. If they don't charge WTO tariffs on our exports of a class of supply they cannot charge anyone else either. It's called most-favoured nation. Look it up. The mad hatter Brexiters keep saying that the EU would have to choose to charge us tariffs under WTO when the question for the EU is actually, "do we want to reduce this tariff for every single country in the world in order to keep the British happy?"

And the same applies to us. We have to charge on every import of a class of product or on none.

Also, despite your mob's ouright lies today, WTO does NOT protect against non-tariff barriers. Any country can pass a law saying that, for example, all of product X must contain, say, fireproof materials mainly produced by that country (just an example, I know how you love to jump on specifics but this is purely to illustrate, so humour me). Much more effective than a tariff and even if someone goes legal it gets tied up for fifteen years in the WTO court (that your other mate Trump is close to making inquorate so there'll likely never be a ruling).

Oranges. Why is it always bloody oranges? I'm beginning to believe that everyone who voted for Brexit did it for cheap Jaffas. Forget the £350million for the NHS, they should have painted ****ing mandarins on the big bus of lies.

An orderly Brexit's going to be bad but WTO would be an unmitigated disaster. Don't be taken in by the propaganda over it.

No-one campaigned for leave meaning WTO so to suggest there's any kind of mandate for it is an utter lie.

Vin

That's what I said. same as us putting tariffs on cabbages to protect our farmers but not on Oranges. I know full well they have to apply the same rule to all. We'll ignore the Chinese steel example or American motorcycles and jeans!!!

Please explain how "obliged to unless they choose not to" is not deciding?

Why is it always Oranges? Ask the BBC. It is the example they keep trotting out.

 

[Beddy]

The EU in total exports much more than we do so their exports to the UK (8%) are a smaller percentage of their total exports than they are a percentage (53%) of our total imports.

On motor trade it's a slightly different number: The 27 other EU member states produced 19.69 million motor vehicles in 2017 and exported 2.3 million (11.7%) of these to the United Kingdom.

We're an important (but not vital) part of their business might be a good way to put it.

However, to say the EU will be worse hit than us is fantasy.

Vin

Vin I didn’t say the EU would be worse hit . Just that they would also suffer if an agreement is not reached. It is in no ones interest should that happen.

 

[ImpSaint]

I should add that the 8% EU exports is only worked out assuming inter-EU sales are exports. So it includes German sales to France etc. Not just exports to outside of the EU.

If you discounted inter-EU transations and assumed we would still be buying the same once out then it would account for 18% export from the EU to a non EU state.

Also it would mean we are only narrowly second to USA as the EUs single largest export market (once outside on the same assumption as above.)

 

[fatletiss]

You said it Vin I didn’t.........What ever agreement we get though will depend on people giving it a go that’s for sure. You surely would agree with that? If it doesn’t work no doubt they’ll blame it on anyone they can! Rather than the people that should take the blame whom ever they are........

David Cameron

 

[Onionman]

That's what I said. same as us putting tariffs on cabbages to protect our farmers but not on Oranges. I know full well they have to apply the same rule to all. We'll ignore the Chinese steel example or American motorcycles and jeans!!!

Please explain how "obliged to unless they choose not to" is not deciding?

Why is it always Oranges? Ask the BBC. It is the example they keep trotting out.

Because they cannot decide to to drop tariffs on exports from the UK. The only thing they can do is to decide to drop tariffs on all imports of a product from every country in the world. It's not hard to comprehand that those are two entirely different things. Doubtless in this post-truth world you'll tell us that they are.

I know you'll find a way to make it sound like it's the nasty EU slapping the naughty UK because that's what Brexit really is all about for so many of you. It's an article of faith to which facts must be twisted.

Vin

 

[Onionman]

Vin I didn’t say the EU would be worse hit . Just that they would also suffer if an agreement is not reached. It is in no ones interest should that happen.

Well you need to be telling your local MP what you think because the big names in the Tory party are rushing at breakneck speed towards it and are being given plenty of airtime to spout their nonsense and persuade fools (see posts above) that it'll be fine (there we go with that phrase again).

Because THIS is how it's being reported:

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Vin

 

[Velcro Roy]

Well you need to be telling your local MP what you think because the big names in the Tory party are rushing at breakneck speed towards it and are being given plenty of airtime to spout their nonsense and persuade fools (see posts above) that it'll be fine (there we go with that phrase again).

Because THIS is how it's being reported:

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Vin

Mate,your posts are starting to read as though you are foaming at the mouth.
You really do need to chill (or stop reading the paper you claim to despise so much).

And before you blow hot all over me I voted to stay although there are many reasons to dislike being part of it.