Welsh Plodders Event

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rudebwoy

rudebwoy

Well-Known Member
Feb 20, 2013
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Bangor
ok , so it's called the welsh grand national , but really it's an extreme test of stamina , i've gone for the very in form ( as usual this time of year ) Kerry Lee and Bishops Road , his whole season has been built around this race as you'd expect from the Byton yard , who seem to own this race in the last few years , Alfie Spinner will go off at silly pace to force the stamina issue , he'll give way a mile or so from home , when the real business happens , this was the tactic employed by Good to Know for mountainous a few years back .
yes there are alternatives , Mysteriee, who wins first time out every year , but in lesser races ,Final Nudge seems a progressive stayer ,Chase the Spud who i'm loathe to desert ,but he had a sapping race at haydock last time , allied to fergals slight dip in form , so it's the Lee family again for me !
 
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I picked out Silsol and Houblon Des Obeaux when this was previously scheduled and I'm not going to desert them now. 33s and 25s respectively. Both on ew thievery terms.
 
EMPERORS CHOICE 20/1
A previous winner off a higher mark and is penalised only 4lb for a very straightforward success in the marathon at Haydock last Saturday. Charlie Deutsch has been rerouted from Sandown to ride here and my guess is that this will go off at single figures. Don't miss the boat!
 
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Three against the field for me:

Agree with Stick et al that Emperors Choice has been laid out for this (but you could say the same about the entire field). Nicked a win LTO to pick up the few lbs they need to sneak into this race. Charlie is a perfectly capable claimer. Previous winner. Will be fine in the conditions. 20/1 (25/1 with Betway if you can get on) is decent each way value.

Raz De Maree - would have won last years race but for the blot that was Native River. Returns off a 1lb higher mark but will be very ably assisted by James Bowen who's 5lb claim effectively means RDM runs off a pound lower this year than last. 16/1 generally available with 18/1 on offer with Stan James if you they've not closed your account for winning £2.50, a mars bar and packet of salt and vinegar crisps.

Alfie Spinner for Kerry Lee is an ageing horse but i quite like the profile anyway. Coming in to this race with a very light weight on his back is a huge advantage to everything at the top of the weights. He's a lb well in based on that trial race LTO and I have Richard Patrick down in my notes as a very good claimer. 10st 2lb is a good starting point and if he can nick the lead and plod about up front, that light weight could be telling.

Anyway, three against the field. Wouldn't be confident any will win but equally wouldn't let any of them go unbacked pre race at these prices. I'll go each way on the lot when the offers come out tomorrow and people are going 5 or 6 places.
 
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Chaninbar said:
I picked out Silsol and Houblon Des Obeaux when this was previously scheduled and I'm not going to desert them now. 33s and 25s respectively. Both on ew thievery terms.
Click to expand...

Houblon Des Obeaux goes in the vets race at Sandown. Charlie Deutsch was down to ride him but goes to Chepstow instead.
 
I m backing two in the slogathon:

Ask the Weatherman. Handles testing conditions..the only unknown for him is the distance but he s got over 3 miles before point to pointing just not 3 miles 5 furlongs. Used to carrying 12 stone plus in his races he 'll feel a horse reborn with 10 st 13lbs..:emoticon-0100-smile

Milansbar. Dropped to a nice racing weight and will have cheek pieces on which might do the trick. It can't be slow enough for this fellow..

Both each way punts tomorrow with extra places etc. Good luck all..
 
stick said:
EMPERORS CHOICE 20/1
A previous winner off a higher mark and is penalised only 4lb for a very straightforward success in the marathon at Haydock last Saturday. Charlie Deutsch has been rerouted from Sandown to ride here and my guess is that this will go off at single figures. Don't miss the boat!
Click to expand...

Not much recovery time between races though eh? Three and a half miles on heavy ground last Saturday and now this just a week later. Surely that is a big ask, no matter how well handicapped the horse is? He did something similar in 2013 but that was 5 years ago <yikes>:

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Firebird Flyer should give us a good spin for our money and 33/1 looks a fair e/way bet for a horse that will still be running on when others have cried enough.
 
At the moment considering Jack Barber's charge for my Saturday involvement, but will sleep on it! :emoticon-0113-sleep
 
Backing two
MYSTEREE
And for some reason: BUCKHORN TIMOTHY. Drawn to him, looks a real dark horse.
 
There is 2 fences per circuit, 6 in all took out, i think, make it a bit easier to get round/home.
 
stick said:
Not the sort of thing they look to “advertise “ is it.
Click to expand...

They always used to offer such a bet on the Grand National – and think they still do. I’ve no opinions on the heat myself, this time around, beyond the fact that it is going to be one ‘eck of a slog. I would imagine you will be able to count on one hand the number of finishers later this afternoon.
 
stick said:
Houblon Des Obeaux goes in the vets race at Sandown. Charlie Deutsch was down to ride him but goes to Chepstow instead.
Click to expand...
Just Silsol for me then at 33s. Has won a Welsh Champion hurdle on Ffos Las heavy ground so conditions will suit. He is thrown in here on his best hurdles form. The question is whether he'll stay. I just have a feeling that Nicholls has targeted this race for him. If he's to beat Hendo to the trainers title he needs to win pots like this as he is unlikely to outperform Hendo at Cheltenham and Aintree. Young Frosty taking a further 5lb off will also help.
 
I know top weight will count against him but still like Vicente for the Nicholls yard
 
After much deliberation(5mins) I’m going with Stick. Emperor’s Choice e/w 6 places with Skybet. You the man stick. Good luck all
 
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