Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 3rd. January 2018

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Firstly, ‘Happy New Year’, crew.

The old regular readers should be excited, of the morrow, as somewhat belatedly they get to unwrap my Christmas bauble.

Lieutenant (by the way what the bally blinkin’ ‘eck is all that about?!?) Henderson, the forum’s favourite Lieutenant (he’s now usurped both Columbo and old boy Gruber) sends SIMONIA to Ludders for the concluding contest, the ‘lucky last’ (3.50). For the reasoning behind this advice I refer the Honourable Ladies and Gentlemen to my ‘Christmas Message’.

Good luck, troops.
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Firstly, ‘Happy New Year’, crew.

The old regular readers should be excited, of the morrow, as somewhat belatedly they get to unwrap my Christmas bauble.

Lieutenant (by the way what the bally blinkin’ ‘eck is all that about?!?) Henderson, the forum’s favourite Lieutenant (he’s now usurped both Columbo and old boy Gruber) sends SIMONIA to Ludders for the concluding contest, the ‘lucky last’ (3.50). For the reasoning behind this advice I refer the Honourable Ladies and Gentlemen to my ‘Christmas Message’.

Good luck, troops.
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Lovely pedigree on this one being related to four winners including Simonsig and Drumcliff. Surprising that it has an opening show of 2/1. If the dogs were well and truly barking it would surely be shorter. Henderson has a good record in bumpers at the track but cannot match the record of Kim Bailey who has a 50% strike rate in bumpers here. He sends out two in this race tomorrow, one of which is SEA STORY who a few of us would have backed on debut only to see her jink after 4f and unseat David Bass. He will surely be a tad wiser about her tomorrow.
 
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Really interesting runner in the Mussy bumper in the form of DETONATE, I would love to know how much they paid for him as Paul Webber originally shelled out 80,000.
This is what the Ewart webpage says;

Detonate is by Al Namix is a high class and very successful stallion in France and is the sire of Petit Mouchoir who won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown and Saphir Du Rheu.Tadorna is the Dam of three winners in France.

A physically imposing and correct horse who has worked really well and will be at his best on good ground. He had one run for Paul Webber as a three year old when he was physically very weak. Only beaten by 2.5 lengths into fourth by the winner who has turned into a serious horse, never being out of the first three. The second horse was Dandy Mag brother to Vroom Vroom Mag who has since come third in a Grade 1 so this is very good form.

As you can plainly see the form is there in the book. This time though he now sports a hood and tongue tie and his departure from Cropredy surely means that there have been problems with this beast.

A safer option could well be an each way play on BLUE BATON @ 15/2. This one is a half sister to a very decent horse of Warren Greatrex's and the going should not be too soft for this daughter of Presenting. The yard apprentice takes a handy 5lb off and she should go close.
 
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I see a few bookies are being fairly generous in offering 13/8 Copain De Classe in the 14.20 Ludlow
 
stick said:
Lovely pedigree on this one being related to four winners including Simonsig and Drumcliff. Surprising that it has an opening show of 2/1. If the dogs were well and truly barking it would surely be shorter. Henderson has a good record in bumpers at the track but cannot match the record of Kim Bailey who has a 50% strike rate in bumpers here. He sends out two in this race tomorrow, one of which is SEA STORY who a few of us would have backed on debut only to see her jink after 4f and unseat David Bass. He will surely be a tad wiser about her tomorrow.
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Interesting that the money in the race seems to be for the supposed Kim Bailey second string, LADY OF THE NIGHT. 14/1 still available if you are quick.
 
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stick said:
Lovely pedigree on this one being related to four winners including Simonsig and Drumcliff. Surprising that it has an opening show of 2/1. If the dogs were well and truly barking it would surely be shorter. Henderson has a good record in bumpers at the track but cannot match the record of Kim Bailey who has a 50% strike rate in bumpers here. He sends out two in this race tomorrow, one of which is SEA STORY who a few of us would have backed on debut only to see her jink after 4f and unseat David Bass. He will surely be a tad wiser about her tomorrow.
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Simonia’s current quote of 2/1 is what I pretty much expected to be honest. I think the reason she is not shorter is because, at this stage, you would have to say it’s a well above average event.

I don’t particularly rate the lineage of Fergal O’Brien’s mare but she commands undoubted respect granted his 23% strike rate in bumpers. The top one, already a winner, should not be dismissed either although carrying a penalty will undoubtedly make it tougher for her. Sea Story was fave on debut (before unseating) but is horrendously weak in the market at present (100/30 to 11/2). The one I would fear the most though would be ‘Mullers’ Mulholland’s Cheeky Chica who, first time up, was 2nd to one of Lieutenant Henderson’s who could go on to be a superstar.

Re the money for Kim Bailey’s other runner Lady of the Night, what a horrendous name for a mare by the way, it would I imagine have a lot to do with this stat – the stables 5 unraced bumper runners at Ludlow, prior to Sea Story’s unseat, all won!

I think Simonia will win but this is as I say well above average, or it would appear so at this stage, race of its type.
 
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I must say, one of the improvements Sporting Life have made to their website is the notes against each runner on their racecards. This is particularly evident in bumpers, where there is often precious little to go on. Here's an excerpt from their card for that Ludlow mares bumper:

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very rare you see Ludlow with heavy in the going , such a well draining track , so despite its sharp nature , stamina is the order of the day , from your boss dj :afro:
 
Happy New Year all.
Right, now all that festivity is out of the way, I can start the official countdown to One Day in May :emoticon-0148-yes: ( http://www.chester-races.co.uk/racing/ladies-day-0 )

We've all gone bumper-licious, but there's an equally interesting Class 4 Maiden Hurdle earlier on that Ludlow card (1.50), right up my street, and with a number of interesting runners. The Nicholls and Henderson horses are obviously of note, but I'm interested in a couple at a nice price, Copper West for the Tom George yard and Peculiar Places for Warren Greatrex, who has that excellent tagline "bred to be suited by this longer trip". Bit of each way thievery for me, I hope!

This Musselburgh opener gives another chance to Character Onesie for the in-form McCain yard; not bad on the flat but fell on hurdle debut last time - win bet for me, I think.

Hope you are all well and that Santa brought you some nice presents.

Good Luck.
 
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Just the 2 x punts for me today:

SOUTHWELL 15:10
Vivat Rex @ 5/1 (GP)

LUDLOW 15:50 (Thanks to Stick)
Lady Of The Night @ 11/1 (GP)
 
SimonJ said:
We've all gone bumper-licious, but there's an equally interesting Class 4 Maiden Hurdle earlier on that Ludlow card (1.50), right up my street, and with a number of interesting runners. The Nicholls and Henderson horses are obviously of note, but I'm interested in a couple at a nice price, Copper West for the Tom George yard and Peculiar Places for Warren Greatrex, who has that excellent tagline "bred to be suited by this longer trip". Bit of each way thievery for me, I hope!
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Well, at least now I know what my New Year's resolution should be .... :emoticon-0148-yes:
 
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