Off Topic The Politics Thread

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Should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave?

  • Stay in

    Votes: 56 47.9%

  • Get out

    Votes: 61 52.1%
  • Total voters
    117
  • Poll closed .
GoldhawkRd said:
If some of the money is used for control of borders including security and negotiating worldwide trade deals, then it's money well spent
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You know those situations where your partner wants to decorate the house because they don't like the colours and you don't see anything wrong with it? The decorating is perfectly sound and it's just a question of taste. There's a lot of fuss and angst, disruption, a heavy depletion of the bank account and ultimately a newly-decorated house. It's no better decorated than it used to be, just a different colour, but the household has less money.

I hope some of you who voted for this get what you want out of the redecorating, but don't try and tell me it won't cost anything. Blind faith doesn't guarantee outcomes or pay bills.
 
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GoldhawkRd said:
£350m pw and a Brexit created recession aren't facts. Annual savings of circa £10bn are
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Spot on. As I am watching the news, they are reporting that many EU members want a deal and Merkel wants to move on. It seems the German car manufacturers are putting on pressure as we expected.
 
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ELLERS said:
Spot on. As I am watching the news, they are reporting that many EU members want a deal and Merkel wants to move on. It seems the German car manufacturers are putting on pressure as we expected.
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Isn’t it amazing how perspective allows us to interpret the same thing in different ways?

It does look like the discussions might move on (good!) but I’d say that’s because May has given the EU leaders a figure that we will pay (rumour is €20bn for future obligations in addition to what we owe in current EU budget to 2020) admitted that she can’t do anything else without some help from the EU because of the divisions in her own party/Government and basically begged them to give her a hand. Now Davies has to present the figure formally to Barnier in the waste of space alleged ‘negotiation’ (Barnier has a script, he has no flexibility or authority to negotiate) and we can move on.

I think the German car industry is fully occupied working out how to regain credibility after cheating everyone on emissions for years.

On the Andrew Neil programme last night Yannis Varoufakis (Marxist, anti EU, pro European cooperation), Caroline Flint (old style New Labour, pro EU but pretty critical of it) and Michael Portillo (Conservative, anti EU, pro European cooperation), all seemed to agree that the sensible thing to do would be to enter a five year Norway style transitional period, at least to let the current, damaged, actors to move off the stage and let a new bunch take on the final shape of Brexit.
 
sb_73 said:
Fair enough, but it’s not money saved, it’s new spending, caused by Brexit.
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If there is a trade deal with the EU, then I would expect there to be considerable savings once the initial transition to full independence has taken place.

If there's no deal, then the UK and the EU will take damaging hits which would be expensive for both and take a long time to heal. If the Euro went up against the £, EU goods would be increasingly unaffordable in the UK and we'd look elsewhere.

The EU have been proceeding on the basis that the UK would never go the "No deal" route. However, now that it is becoming a prospect (though still hopefully unlikely), EU leaders are beginning to get worried. They never thought we'd leave the EU in the first place. They took a tough line and pushed the UK into Brexit. Then they thought they could hold the UK's feet to the flames to get more money in the Brexit process. Now, they see that, yes, we may walk away. We have been reasonable, and won't be pushed further. The ball is in the EU court and if they want a deal, they need to give the green light in December. It looks as though they will.
 
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sb_73 said:
Isn’t it amazing how perspective allows us to interpret the same thing in different ways?

It does look like the discussions might move on (good!) but I’d say that’s because May has given the EU leaders a figure that we will pay (rumour is €20bn
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Sb We were told by the 'remoaners' that the figure branded was £60bn+? <laugh>
As I happens the figure of £20bn could be rubbish as well so we will have to wait and see.

Other than that, todays news is fantastic for the UK and however it gets spun it must be a positive.
 
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ELLERS said:
Sb We were told by the 'remoaners' that the figure branded was £60bn+? <laugh>
As I happens the figure of £20bn could be rubbish as well so we will have to wait and see.

Other than that, todays news is fantastic for the UK and however it gets spun it must be a positive.
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Agree it sounds like good news at last. The scary figures haven’t helped, but I’m expecting a total of around €35bn (the future obligations €20bn plus our current budget obligations) which quite a few of the calmer authorities have suggested. Also read that the real numbers will never be made public. Not sure how they can pull this off, surely the public finances have to be debated in Parliament.
 
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GoldhawkRd said:
If there is a trade deal with the EU, then I would expect there to be considerable savings once the initial transition to full independence has taken place.

If there's no deal, then the UK and the EU will take damaging hits which would be expensive for both and take a long time to heal. If the Euro went up against the £, EU goods would be increasingly unaffordable in the UK and we'd look elsewhere.

The EU have been proceeding on the basis that the UK would never go the "No deal" route. However, now that it is becoming a prospect (though still hopefully unlikely), EU leaders are beginning to get worried. They never thought we'd leave the EU in the first place. They took a tough line and pushed the UK into Brexit. Then they thought they could hold the UK's feet to the flames to get more money in the Brexit process. Now, they see that, yes, we may walk away. We have been reasonable, and won't be pushed further. The ball is in the EU court and if they want a deal, they need to give the green light in December. It looks as though they will.
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We’ve blinked on the money, they’ve blinked on the trade (which we would have blinked on as well one day).Good!
 
sb_73 said:
Agree it sounds like good news at last. The scary figures haven’t helped, but I’m expecting a total of around €35bn (the future obligations €20bn plus our current budget obligations) which quite a few of the calmer authorities have suggested. Also read that the real numbers will never be made public. Not sure how they can pull this off, surely the public finances have to be debated in Parliament.
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TBH Sb I truly believe it will all be a lot of posturing and hot air before it gets done. As someone who changed his mind from a 'remainer' to a leaver I think that after all this there will probably not be as much of a change as expected.
I have friends in France who think that they will be kicked out after we leave... Many of the ex-pats who live abroad keep local economies thriving and have children integrated in the schools. A good example is the place where I live in France. If it wasn't for the Brits that live there the restaurants/pubs/DIY shops would take a massive hit. Our local restaurant relies on the Brits to keep it open. Without them it would be empty.
 
ELLERS said:
TBH Sb I truly believe it will all be a lot of posturing and hot air before it gets done. As someone who changed his mind from a 'remainer' to a leaver I think that after all this there will probably not be as much of a change as expected.
I have friends in France who think that they will be kicked out after we leave... Many of the ex-pats who live abroad keep local economies thriving and have children integrated in the schools. A good example is the place where I live in France. If it wasn't for the Brits that live there the restaurants/pubs/DIY shops would take a massive hit. Our local restaurant relies on the Brits to keep it open. Without them it would be empty.
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It already is a lot of posturing and hot air, Ellers :emoticon-0100-smile

Let's hope common sense prevails. The only people who want a painful exit are the fanatics who see the economic and social upheaval it will deliver as a good thing for their own personal agendas.

On a change of topic - you've said "where I live in France" a few times. Where do you spend most of your time? Where do your kids go to school? I've always believed you can only live in one place, no matter how many properties you own. The others are just places you stay from time to time - often with an "I'm on holiday" mindset rather than actually "living". What's your view?
 
So, nearly seven months after Theresa May triggered Article 50, and 18 months after the referendum was held, we have reached a point where talks will be held about having talks on a trade deal. Still, any progress is good news, I suppose. Plainly we have coughed up more money to achieve this triumph, but it seems we may never be told how much. However much it is, it will be a drop in the ocean compared to the £490bn we 'lost' a couple of weeks back, anyway.

Meanwhile, in domestic politics, a Labour motion, 'this house calls on the government to pause the rollout of universal credit full service', was passed in the Commons on Wednesday night by 299 votes to 0. Tories abstained because they are scared of pressure for a no confidence vote if they contest and lose. The Government insists that the vote was not binding anyway. It seems that, in focussing on Brexit talks, the government feels that it can just ignore our Parliament.
 
Stroller said:
So, nearly seven months after Theresa May triggered Article 50, and 18 months after the referendum was held, we have reached a point where talks will be held about having talks on a trade deal. Still, any progress is good news, I suppose. Plainly we have coughed up more money to achieve this triumph, but it seems we may never be told how much. However much it is, it will be a drop in the ocean compared to the £490bn we 'lost' a couple of weeks back, anyway.

Meanwhile, in domestic politics, a Labour motion, 'this house calls on the government to pause the rollout of universal credit full service', was passed in the Commons on Wednesday night by 299 votes to 0. Tories abstained because they are scared of pressure for a no confidence vote if they contest and lose. The Government insists that the vote was not binding anyway. It seems that, in focussing on Brexit talks, the government feels that it can just ignore our Parliament.
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In fairness at my work it takes about two months to organise the meeting where we'll discuss the ongoing schedule for future meetings. Someone will then drop out and we'll have a catch-up meeting so they know when the meetings about other meetings will happen.

We'll then spend an hour saying meaningless buzz words and go for lunch.
 
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West WindsR said:
In fairness at my work it takes about two months to organise the meeting where we'll discuss the ongoing schedule for future meetings. Someone will then drop out and we'll have a catch-up meeting so they know when the meetings about other meetings will happen.

We'll then spend an hour saying meaningless buzz words and go for lunch.
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Only two months! Some of the meetings I occasionally attend (i'm not that important) take much longer. People need to get real about this divorce from the EU. Agree it's not everybody's cup of tea and it will be very complicated.
As I say, and maybe I am dreaming in that we can still be part of Europe and enjoy the fruits of migration and foreign culture; that we can get along as adults but without all the bureaucracy that goes with that elitist club.
 
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Good to hear from the Spanish foreign minister today that British ex-pats in Spain may remain, even if there is a No Deal Brexit. It does seem there is a more reasonable attitude being adopted to Brexit by EU member states, and hard-line federalists like Junckers and Verhofstadt are slowly being marginalised.

What has Spain to gain be making this announcement now? There's the precious income Spain gains from all those Brit pensioners, but more than that, a cynic might suggest Spain is intent on currying favour with the international community on the threshold of what it is about to do in Catalonia. A bit unsettling.
 
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