Is this about as good as its going to get?

[General Melchett]

Obviously its early days yet and the tightening of the defense has been a much needed and great bit of work. But will we continue to struggle to beat teams and end up drawing half our matches? Looking at his last season with Dortmand II this looks potentially what we can look forward to.

GP W D L GF GA GD Pts Form PPG CS FTS
1 Viktoria Köln 34 23 3 8 91 42 +49 72
2 Dortmund II 34 16 15 3 54 25 +29 63
3 M`gladbach B 34 17 11 6 71 42 +29 62
4 Oberhausen 34 18 5 11 69 50 +19 59
5 Rot Weiss Essen 34 14 13 7 48 35 +13 55
6 FC Köln B 34 15 6 13 59 54 +5 51
7 Aachen 34 16 11 7 51 39 +12 50
8 Wattenscheid 34 14 8 12 51 44 +7 50
9 Bonner SC 34 14 6 14 60 61 -1 48
10 Rödinghausen 34 13 9 12 55 57 -2 48
11 Wuppertaler 34 10 12 12 47 47 0 42
12 Düsseldorf B 34 10 11 13 44 51 -7 41
13 SC Verl 34 9 13 12 37 49 -12 40
14 Wiedenbrück 34 9 12 13 43 52 -9 39
15 Rot Weiss Ahlen 34 8 8 18 43 66 -23 32
16 Schalke 04 B 34 8 6 20 32 48 -16 30
17 Sprockhövel 34 5 9 20 31 73 -42 24
18 Siegen 34 5 6 23 31 82 -51 21

They finished in second which we would obviously be very pleased with replicating, but whilst they had the best defense by a mile with only 0.74 goals per game, they were hardly free scoring with a 1.59 average. The second number is bigger and that I guess is what its all about. but 44% of their matches ended up draws. OK so a 9% loss record is obviously awesome but they seemed to find scoring more than a couple quite tough, especially at home.

Goal margins (at home) 1 2 3 4+
Wins _____________ 5 4 1 0
Defeats ___________1 0 0 0

Goal margins (away) 1 2 3 4+
Wins __________2 0 2 2
Defeats ________2 0 0 0

In 8 home games they scored 1 or less goals and its 10 for the away games, so more than half the season 53%, 1 or less goals scored!
The German Regionalliga West is obviously a very different place to the championship but is a similar pattern already emerging?
So will we have to get used to being excedingly tough to beat but seeing a lot less goals? If it brings a PL return should we care? It certainly would appear a more solid basis for then being able to stay there, but will it be worth watching?
Probably too early to say, but Prichard and Nelson can't get back to fitness quickly enough!

Bah!

 

[JM Fan]

Excellent post General and I hope it generates good debate in the coming days/weeks. I quite enjoyed the game V Robins (though a 1-0 win would have been BRILLIANT!!)
As you rightly say, the defence HAD to be improved and I'm quietly confident that so will our goal scoring in coming weeks/months.
JM should be back in contention for a starting place tomorrow night and Basil may be fit enough to come on as a sub, but should definitely be fit enough for a start at Reading. Pritchard should be back in time for the numerous games over the Xmas period and we MIGHT just sign a reasonable striker in the January window!!!
My glass is MORE than half full and I'll be very surprised if we're not in the top 10 by Xmas (unless Klose suffers another injury/suspension!!!).

 

[DUNCAN DONUTS]

Last season we were one of the highest scoring sides with one of the worst defences and missed out on the play offs.
It may not be as entertaining but going over 380 odd minutes without conceding is very impressive especially after the thrashings we had in previous weeks.
Even if we go 10 games win 1 draw 1 that's 20 points from s possible 30 .
Not losing is a great habit and if they can start scoring regularly then a surprise top 6 finish may well be achievable.

 

[General Melchett]

I agree that in general it is a good thing and I am optimistic that with a fully fit squad in particular the return of both Pritchard and Oliveira we will start getting a few more goals. But it is concerning that for the last 3 home games we have only managed 1 goal. The championship is definitely a tougher nut than regionella west but just as Burton were thrashed at Leeds but stubbron at CR, we will get an early goal in one of those matches at some point, and then hopefully be able to take advantage. As you say DD 3 out of every 3 points would do us grand. but if it comes from averageing less than two goals a game I can also understand ILD getting frustrated. We want to be entertained at the end of the day.

Bah!

 

[DUNCAN DONUTS]

If we fail to get promoted this season the bones from our team will be picked even further so I put results ahead of entertainment in order of importance and will put up with ugly 1-0 wins and boring 0-0s.

The problem is if we can't score then the opposition only need 1 goal to kill us off too.
I don't think the 4 clean sheets are a fluke and we have goals in the squad .
Kevin Keegan exciting but winning **** all approach or boring boring George Graham winning things.

 

[Walsh.i.am]

If we fail to get promoted this season the bones from our team will be picked even further

I genuinely believe that if Alex P hadn't got assaulted at Cambridge early in pre-season, he'd have been gone by now.
Age before beauty, suitors - Steven Naismith is older and far more experienced than our Alex

 

[royalbarclayfan]

Is this about as good as it´s going to get?
if you ask me - Yes! You know Norwich, irrespective of manager, they can make the simplest of tasks look impossible. Despite this league already looking fairly open this year, I doubt we´ll get close to top 6, top half finish at best.

 

[JM Fan]

Some good points being raised and I remember the last time 1p5wich were in the PL (the Alzheimers hasn't kicked in yet!!!), they stayed up by virtue of winning several games 1-0. I also see ILD's point of view in that he pays his money to be entertained and part of that is seeing us scoring goals.
Out of the 16 games between now and the end of the year, I see the following 5 as games where we'll do well to pick up any points -
Tue Sep 26 Boro
Tue Oct 31 Wolves
Fri Dec 1 Cardiff
Sat Dec 9 Sheff Weds
Sat Dec 16 Leeds
Of the others, I'd expect a minimum of 20 points, or 2 points per game, but I'm optimistic that our points total will exceed 40 by the time we play Millwall at CR on 1st Jan!!

 

[JM Fan]

Is this about as good as it´s going to get?

if you ask me - Yes! You know Norwich, irrespective of manager, they can make the simplest of tasks look impossible. Despite this league already looking fairly open this year, I doubt we´ll get close the top 6, top half finish at best.

OK RBF, we'll have to agree to differ and I'll be very surprised if we're NOT in the top 10 and could just make top 6 if we can avoid injuries/suspensions to key players.

 

[DUNCAN DONUTS]

If Oliviera Josh Pritchard and Maddison in my opinion the basis of an exciting attack score plenty of goals between them but lose games 3-2 4-3 etc then next season without the parachute payments they will probably all go to balance the books ,Gunn will return and we will end up with a very weak squad.

If we can pull off a miracle and go back up then everyone wants to stay and other good players want to join us.

We appear to be slowly picking up momentum and hopefully turn the draws into wins .
8 points from top with a pretty crappy start is not too bad .

 

[General Melchett]

If we fail to get promoted this season the bones from our team will be picked even further so I put results ahead of entertainment in order of importance and will put up with ugly 1-0 wins and boring 0-0s.

The problem is if we can't score then the opposition only need 1 goal to kill us off too.
I don't think the 4 clean sheets are a fluke and we have goals in the squad .
Kevin Keegan exciting but winning **** all approach or boring boring George Graham winning things.

Whilst I agree with you in principle, getting up and retaining our best players as a consequence is the biggest priority, what next? Staying up becomes the biggest priority, so once again we sacrific attacking intent for a few less 1-0's a few more 0-0's and stay up, the season after we strengthen further but are still way behind the rest of the division in finance, we defend resolutely and struggle for golas again. 3 years, 5 years, 10 years on and our priority is still likely to be survival. When does the entertainment resume? why didn't we just hire Colin or fat Sam?

This really isn't about Keegan vs Graham. OK one was successful the other not so, but surely the gunners were winning all the time and that requires at least one goal and then obviously there is the silverware. OK so I will get excited if we are winning promotion automatically or by the playoffs, but that doesn't mean that I wouldn't rather it was entertaining and with plenty of goals. It can be done that way, look at Lambert or Blackpool under Olly.

Farke could very well still get both attack and defense working well and we maybe an international break away from all are attacking woes being solved. We'll see, for now I confident he will get us scoring whilst retaining defensive solidarity, but we'll see.

Bah!

 

[royalbarclayfan]

OK RBF, we'll have to agree to differ and I'll be very surprised if we're NOT in the top 10 and could just make top 6 if we can avoid injuries/suspensions to key players.

Well, I´ll make a note in my diary to have another chat around May, then - still think I´ll be nearer the mark, I also think we´ll have had at least one managerial change by then, too.

 

[JM Fan]

Well, I´ll make a note in my diary to have another chat around May, then - still think I´ll be nearer the mark, I also think we´ll have had at least one managerial change by then, too.

Indeed and I look forward to it. I'll also beg to differ re the managerial change!!!

 

[DUNCAN DONUTS]

RBF rooting for another failed season so we don't go back to the Foreign owned greedy money lust league.

 

[canary-dave]

RBF rooting for another failed season so we don't go back to the Foreign owned greedy money lust league.

Do you REALLY not understand what he's saying? He would love NCFC to be in the top league if only there was a level playing field!

 

[Walsh.i.am]

Do you REALLY not understand what he's saying? He would love NCFC to be in the top league if only there was a level playing field!

Teams like Burnley, Swansea and Watford have managed to 'level' it with astute signings and the style of football they play (admittedly, not to everyone's taste) / results they grind out.
Norwich had chances under both Hughton and Neil and made poor / negligible signings and played the wrong styles of football to stand a cat in hell's chance.
It takes a lot of factors to all align even in your first season. Interesting to see how Hughton's boys acquit themselves this year - Not too shabby a start for them.

 

[Walsh.i.am]

Do you REALLY not understand what he's saying? He would love NCFC to be in the top league if only there was a level playing field!

With respect to all involved, from the following comments I can't see where RBF says or even hints at this in a single syllable?

Is this about as good as it´s going to get?
if you ask me - Yes! You know Norwich, irrespective of manager, they can make the simplest of tasks look impossible. Despite this league already looking fairly open this year, I doubt we´ll get close to top 6, top half finish at best.

Where, in that comment, does he mention that he'd "love" to be in the top league?
Sounds resigned to a lengthy championship slog, if you ask me.
Feel free to respond please, RBF, I'd rather that than people trying to answer on your behalf

 

[DHCanary]

Teams like Burnley, Swansea and Watford have managed to 'level' it with astute signings and the style of football they play (admittedly, not to everyone's taste) / results they grind out.
Norwich had chances under both Hughton and Neil and made poor / negligible signings and played the wrong styles of football to stand a cat in hell's chance.
It takes a lot of factors to all align even in your first season. Interesting to see how Hughton's boys acquit themselves this year - Not too shabby a start for them.

Hughton is certainly a relevant talking point in this discussion. He tried to build goals into a defensive setup, which left us very vulnerable to conceding. When the team lost confidence and individual mistakes repeatedly lead to conceding, the writing was on the wall. I think for us moving forwards, we need to start to add goals before a series of drab, 1-0 defeats can rob confidence. I think how we come out of the next run of fixtures will be very illuminating.

Is this as good as it gets? Too early to say I think. We were told over the summer that Farke would play 4-1-4-1, as he did in Germany. That's been dropped, as has the experiment with 5 at the back, in favour of a much more "standard championship" 4-2-3-1. If Farke is adapting his tactics, then I don't think it's fair to assume that our goal tally will necessarily reflect his previous season. I suspect his attacking resources are far more plentiful here, which should help.

Brighton haven't started badly, but it does rather look like the same Hughton formula as before. Personally I expect them to have the same problems before too long.

 

[DUNCAN DONUTS]

Do you REALLY not understand what he's saying? He would love NCFC to be in the top league if only there was a level playing field!

I don't think he would love us to be in the top league and there is no level playing field in professional football and never will be.

 

[canary-dave]

With respect to all involved, from the following comments I can't see where RBF says or even hints at this in a single syllable?



Where, in that comment, does he mention that he'd "love" to be in the top league?
Sounds resigned to a lengthy championship slog, if you ask me.
Feel free to respond please, RBF, I'd rather that than people trying to answer on your behalf

You are absolutely right there is nothing in that post to show his preferences, but there have been several occasions when he's talked about the horrors of being a yo-yo club, one season winning promotion followed by a season where everyone is falling out and name-calling because we're struggling in the Prem

I think, with our new set-up, there is a very good chance we can become a safe, bottom-half Prem team, but it's still a work in progress and needs patience from our fickle fans!