Off Topic The Politics Thread

[seagullhoop]

If frustrating Brexit is as important as you imply, surely you should have put that above all else and voted for Tim Farron?

Corbyn is known to be Eurosceptic, and he and MacDonnell made it abundantly clear before the election that they would honour the referendum vote, which meant leaving the Single Market. Corbyn reconfirmed that to Marr yesterday. You voted for that policy. I can't help you...

I refer you to my previous answer, maybe read it again...

"There wasn't a party that would cover all the things I believe in, so I voted for the broadest stroke, as many if not most people do - your arguments are reductionist and simplistic."

...and in his interview with Marr, Corbyn insisted on Tariff Free access to the single market - as far as I can see, without that, his argument for Brexit fails, and I can't see any way that this can be achieved if we leave the EU. You mustn't confuse my Remain position and your desire to have simplistic black and white solutions - I don't see anyone winning an argument here - if you extrapolate your argument, anyone who voted Tory voted for a 30% child poverty rate and a failing economy since those are the product of their policies, which I'm sure few if any intended.

As is have said repeatedly, politics is nuanced - when you try to reduce it to a binary answer, you end up losing all of the important details.

Here is a transcript of the interview... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/23071701.pdf

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

Y Debt on outstanding car, personal and other loans and outstanding credit card borrowing, already high relatively, has risen by over 10% over the last year, while income has fallen behind inflation. Laugh it off as "Mrs Smithers cat" if you like, but it's a recipe for suffering, for real people, not an abstract idea or political posture.

If Brexit is responsible for this, Stan, how come the exact thing happened leading up to the 2008 recession? Interest rates were rock bottom before Brexit, and banks were lending irresponsibly before that. Respectfully, you sound like the BBC. Everything troubling in the economic cycle is down to Brexit, and anything good like record high employment and a soaring stock market happens "despite Brexit".

You need to look long term. Brexit has not happened yet, and the next five years are key. The EU is a shrinking market as a percentage of the world economy. We want a pragmatic and responsible arrangement with the EU going forward (which will be achieved if the likes of Junckers are not in destructive and punitive mood), but nothing that binds our hands to trade with emerging markets in the rest of the world going forward.

 

[sb_73]

If Brexit is responsible for this, Stan, how come the exact thing happened leading up to the 2008 recession? Interest rates were rock bottom before Brexit, and banks were lending irresponsibly before that. Respectfully, you sound like the BBC. Everything troubling in the economic cycle is down to Brexit, and anything good like record high employment and a soaring stock market happens "despite Brexit".

You need to look long term. Brexit has not happened yet, and the next five years are key. The EU is a shrinking market as a percentage of the world economy. We want a pragmatic and responsible arrangement with the EU going forward (which will be achieved if the likes of Junckers are not in destructive and punitive mood), but nothing that binds our hands to trade with emerging markets in the rest of the world going forward.

I'm really enjoying this thread, especially your responses, which remind me of a kid putting his fingers in his ears and yelling "la, la, la I can't hear you!!".

People are borrowing now to buy things they need to live, like food, and to pay the mortgage/rent, not splurge on treats (hence falling retail sales). The circumstances are specific to the UK, unlike the 2008 recession, which as you may remember was global. I will give you that the British have a very unhealthy relationship with credit, and have had since the Thatcher years. Apparently of all the credit cards in the EU, 70% of them are in the U.K.

Given your views on him (many of which I share by the way) it must be rather concerning that the chances of a non punitive Brexit deal depend on Junckers being in a good mood.

As to looking long term, the goalposts keep moving further and further away. Five years is a lifetime if you are hungry today.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

I refer you to my previous answer, maybe read it again...

"There wasn't a party that would cover all the things I believe in, so I voted for the broadest stroke, as many if not most people do - your arguments are reductionist and simplistic."

...and in his interview with Marr, Corbyn insisted on Tariff Free access to the single market - as far as I can see, without that, his argument for Brexit fails, and I can't see any way that this can be achieved if we leave the EU. You mustn't confuse my Remain position and your desire to have simplistic black and white solutions - I don't see anyone winning an argument here - if you extrapolate your argument, anyone who voted Tory voted for a 30% child poverty rate and a failing economy since those are the product of their policies, which I'm sure few if any intended.

As is have said repeatedly, politics is nuanced - when you try to reduce it to a binary answer, you end up losing all of the important details.

Here is a transcript of the interview... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/23071701.pdf

How you vote is up to you, but I repeat, if Remain was absolutely central to you, the Lib Dems were the party. The problem with Corbyn's approach is that if he was involved in negotiations, he would be saying to Junckers et al:

"It is an unconditional requirement that we have tariff free access to the Single Market. Name your price."

Junckers (who wants to make an example of the UK for daring to leave the EU sect) would put on a huge price tag and insist on unrestricted freedom of movement of workers and the continuation of the jurisdiction of the ECJ applying to the UK.

Essentially, the UK would have left the EU in name only. In that event, in my opinion, there would be a huge consequence to internal UK politics with the rise of extreme parties. It would not be a settled matter. And Corbyn wouldn't last long.

 

[ELLERS]

If Brexit is responsible for this, Stan, how come the exact thing happened leading up to the 2008 recession? Interest rates were rock bottom before Brexit, and banks were lending irresponsibly before that.

Spot on
It appears that the 'remoaners' are going over the same ground again.
If in doubt, blame Brexit.

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

I'm really enjoying this thread, especially your responses, which remind me of a kid putting his fingers in his ears and yelling "la, la, la I can't hear you!!".

People are borrowing now to buy things they need to live, like food, and to pay the mortgage/rent, not splurge on treats (hence falling retail sales). The circumstances are specific to the UK, unlike the 2008 recession, which as you may remember was global. I will give you that the British have a very unhealthy relationship with credit, and have had since the Thatcher years. Apparently of all the credit cards in the EU, 70% of them are in the U.K.

Given your views on him (many of which I share by the way) it must be rather concerning that the chances of a non punitive Brexit deal depend on Junckers being in a good mood.

As to looking long term, the goalposts keep moving further and further away. Five years is a lifetime if you are hungry today.

Stan, it's you that keeps whinging and throwing toys from his pram by refusing to recognise that people in the UK were borrowing heavily before Brexit. Interest rates have been incredibly low for several years. If Brexit had not happened, there still would be a credit problem.

Do I assume that its your company's practise to make policies on the hoof day by day, and not look long term?

If there is genuine hardship through poverty in the UK, this must be addressed at government level. But much has been caused by a consumer spending splurge and that has to be reined in.

 

[seagullhoop]

Stan, it's you that keeps whinging and throwing toys from his pram by refusing to recognise that people in the UK were borrowing heavily before Brexit. Interest rates have been incredibly low for several years. If Brexit had not happened, there still would be a credit problem.

Do I assume that its your company's practise to make policies on the hoof day by day, and not look long term?

If there is genuine hardship through poverty in the UK, this must be addressed at government level. But much has been caused by a consumer spending splurge and that has to be reined in.

If in doubt blame the proles eh?

 

[seagullhoop]

How you vote is up to you, but I repeat, if Remain was absolutely central to you, the Lib Dems were the party. The problem with Corbyn's approach is that if he was involved in negotiations, he would be saying to Junckers et al:

"It is an unconditional requirement that we have tariff free access to the Single Market. Name your price."

Junckers (who wants to make an example of the UK for daring to leave the EU sect) would put on a huge price tag and insist on unrestricted freedom of movement of workers and the continuation of the jurisdiction of the ECJ applying to the UK.

Essentially, the UK would have left the EU in name only. In that event, in my opinion, there would be a huge consequence to internal UK politics with the rise of extreme parties. It would not be a settled matter. And Corbyn wouldn't last long.

The fact is, to remain as part of the single market and or customs union we will have to dance to the EU tune - no amount of jingoistic flag waving and empire style posturing is going to change that.

The far right are a joke - an ugly rabble of ill educated misfits that lack the thinking power of a six year old - let them march or riot and they'll get laughed off the streets.

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[GoldhawkRoad]

If in doubt blame the proles eh?

I'm sure we're all responsible for it, Seagull.

 

[kiwiqpr]

Chlorinated chicken
Sounds yum
70% of all European credit cards are in The UK
Is that true or one of the 52% of statistics that are made up

 

[seagullhoop]

I'm sure we're all responsible for it, Seagull.

Well it's clearly nothing to do with irresponsibe lending, or a self obsessed culture of consumption encouraged and facilitated by years of 'free market economy' brainwashing in the media. I skipped working and watched the TDF the other day - every other ad was for a payday lender or equivalent with APR's ranging from 99-1024% - I find it hard to believe that this kind of lending is anything short of usury and does suggest that SBs point about people being forced into borrowing just to live is perhaps closer to the truth that you care to admit (I mean they are not advertising for fun are they?).

It's difficult to look past the culture of individualism over community and 'have it now pay later' has been fostered and encouraged by the right for years. We live in a society where narcissism and the trappings of wealth are celebrated as achievements in the MSM while growing poverty is ignored and even facilitated by those on power - just look at the cuts to disability benefits, school funding or the deeply cruel bedroom tax.

Meanwhile the biggest political upheaval for decades is happening around us after a vote based on lies and misinformation which, if it happened in a 'third world' country, we would be probably be calling for UN sanctions against a government enveloped by a whiff of corruption.

Democracy isn't a panacea for all ills - but when something stinks it generally means it's off.

Brexit stinks at the moment - it's fine to say "I want out", but it's increasingly looking like being out will be a catastrophic mistake. The economy is tanking, the banking sector is preparing to leave the city and we can't provide the workers for our NHS and the government still do not appear to have a grasp on the ramifications of leaving because no-one knows what the deal will be. Yet we get a message that it's unpatriotic to question the government line - isn't that what totalitarian and fascist states do?

You might be fine with letting these people make the decisions that will affect us all, but I am genuinely worried... not least because I don't think it will affect them personally. Financially they are fine, they are middle aged, wealthy, predominantly well connected and they will always be in work - but for the rest of us, and getting my feedback from the businesses that I work with and for in London, confidence is low and actual business is slowing down as a direct result of the referendum vote and the subsequent revelations of our weak position from the initial negotiations.

Again, if it doesn't affect you personally I can see how you might be prepared to just go with it and see how it goes - but for lots of people that is a risk they might not thank you to take.

One more point, a small one... I try to remain (!) polite in my discussions, and you're clearly an intelligent guy even if we disagree so vehemently - so please don't stoop to the levels of using petty terms like 'remoaner' etc. they are well past their sell by date and really don't serve your argument.

 

[West London Willy]

How you vote is up to you, but I repeat, if Remain was absolutely central to you, the Lib Dems were the party.

Oh, if only we could distill politics down to a single issue. Which would be utterly ridiculous. As seagull said, people look at all elements of the manifesto. Voting for Lib Dems would have meant, as a single example, voting for legalisation of a number of highly addictive and destructive drugs (their view was that rather than have the profit go to the dealers, lets rake some of that profit for ourselves in taxation). Lib dems are stuck between the party of protest and the party who had a whiff of power, so they are in an utter mess. Labour set themselves up as the actual party of protest this time round, with all that guff about student loans, student debt, tax the rich, bankers are evil, May is a witch etc. and sadly a lot of naive young voters bought it. Utterly unrealistic and unaffordable, however a lot of first time voters believed that he was telling the truth. A lot of people who disliked or distrusted the current approach to EU negotiations voted Labour as the only realistic alternative to the tories, not necessarily because they agreed with what Corbyn was saying, nor Labour's stance on the EU. Not enough to evict the Tories, but a lot. The tories nearly threw it away, which was entirely down to them and not anyone else. However, they are still there.

Basically, it's not as simple as you are trying to make out.

Essentially, the UK would have left the EU in name only. In that event, in my opinion, there would be a huge consequence to internal UK politics with the rise of extreme parties. It would not be a settled matter. And Corbyn wouldn't last long.

That's already happening, mate. Has been for years. and it needs to change, with a truly centre party taking a stand for the middle 80% who really don't have a voice loud enough to shout down the left and right extreme 10%

 

[sb_73]

Stan, it's you that keeps whinging and throwing toys from his pram by refusing to recognise that people in the UK were borrowing heavily before Brexit. Interest rates have been incredibly low for several years. If Brexit had not happened, there still would be a credit problem.

Do I assume that its your company's practise to make policies on the hoof day by day, and not look long term?

If there is genuine hardship through poverty in the UK, this must be addressed at government level. But much has been caused by a consumer spending splurge and that has to be reined in.

Mature stuff Goldie. I'm posting facts and you are in denial. Yes, we have a credit problem in the UK. I'm sure the fact that it has increased by 10% in exactly the time that the cost of living has risen and wages have stagnated is entirely coincidental. Just like the cost of living rising due to a weak £ is nothing to do with the Brexit vote.

For your info my company has planned for Brexit by deprioritising the U.K. as a market. To be fair we, and most of the rest of the industry, including the U.K. companies, started this process long before Brexit, for a variety of reasons. Even GSK is disinvesting here now. Now there is an added issue, as we don't know whether the scientists recruited from all over the world to work in research facilities will either want to come or be allowed in. We don't know whether the international funding streams available for scientific research will still be accessible from the UK. And the EU process for approving drugs to go to market will no longer apply to the UK and the government has given no indication what will replace it (the sensible answer would be to pay the regulator, EMA, currently based in London but not for much longer, to be an associate member and take its rulings on board. We still negotiate market access and price at a national level, as now. The EU will also doubtless ask us for some cash to pay for the relocation of the EMA, as it wouldn't happen without Brexit, and all the highly skilled British workers there will have to find new work). I'm sure very similar things are happening in all globalised industries.

 

[QPR Oslo]

Well it's clearly nothing to do with irresponsibe lending, or a self obsessed culture of consumption encouraged and facilitated by years of 'free market economy' brainwashing in the media. I skipped working and watched the TDF the other day - every other ad was for a payday lender or equivalent with APR's ranging from 99-1024% - I find it hard to believe that this kind of lending is anything short of usury and does suggest that SBs point about people being forced into borrowing just to live is perhaps closer to the truth that you care to admit (I mean they are not advertising for fun are they?).

It's difficult to look past the culture of individualism over community and 'have it now pay later' has been fostered and encouraged by the right for years. We live in a society where narcissism and the trappings of wealth are celebrated as achievements in the MSM while growing poverty is ignored and even facilitated by those on power - just look at the cuts to disability benefits, school funding or the deeply cruel bedroom tax.

Meanwhile the biggest political upheaval for decades is happening around us after a vote based on lies and misinformation which, if it happened in a 'third world' country, we would be probably be calling for UN sanctions against a government enveloped by a whiff of corruption.

Democracy isn't a panacea for all ills - but when something stinks it generally means it's off.

Brexit stinks at the moment - it's fine to say "I want out", but it's increasingly looking like being out will be a catastrophic mistake. The economy is tanking, the banking sector is preparing to leave the city and we can't provide the workers for our NHS and the government still do not appear to have a grasp on the ramifications of leaving because no-one knows what the deal will be. Yet we get a message that it's unpatriotic to question the government line - isn't that what totalitarian and fascist states do?

You might be fine with letting these people make the decisions that will affect us all, but I am genuinely worried... not least because I don't think it will affect them personally. Financially they are fine, they are middle aged, wealthy, predominantly well connected and they will always be in work - but for the rest of us, and getting my feedback from the businesses that I work with and for in London, confidence is low and actual business is slowing down as a direct result of the referendum vote and the subsequent revelations of our weak position from the initial negotiations.

Again, if it doesn't affect you personally I can see how you might be prepared to just go with it and see how it goes - but for lots of people that is a risk they might not thank you to take.

One more point, a small one... I try to remain (!) polite in my discussions, and you're clearly an intelligent guy even if we disagree so vehemently - so please don't stoop to the levels of using petty terms like 'remoaner' etc. they are well past their sell by date and really don't serve your argument.

And in addition to this and the facts of the economic dowturn since the vote SB laid out in his post, we have a Government who have neither the resources or the political mandate to handle more than work on Brexit. The real problems facing Britain today, the NHS (increasing staff shortages/ poor recruitment sine the Brexit vote shown starkly in today''s statistics), housing, security services, the environment, are not getting tackled as they should be. And the Brexit negotiations seem stuck at the very first hurdle of EU citizens in UK/ UK in Europe which was reckoned to be the easy one.

They should cancel the Article 50 and the Leave process immediately, no new referendum ( the last ome should never have been held, the issues are complex and people had little good idea of what voting leave would give), and work on the UK''s real problems. I've no doubt the UK economy would show an immediate upturn as a result.

 

[seagullhoop]

And in addition to this and the facts of the economic dowturn since the vote SB laid out in his post, we have a Government who have neither the resources or the political mandate to handle more than work on Brexit. The real problems facing Britain today, the NHS (increasing staff shortages/ poor recruitment sine the Brexit vote shown starkly in today''s statistics), housing, security services, the environment, are not getting tackled as they should be. And the Brexit negotiations seem stuck at the very first hurdle of EU citizens in UK/ UK in Europe which was reckoned to be the easy one.

They should cancel the Article 42 and the Leave process immediately, no new referendum ( the last ome should never have been held, the issues are complex and people had little good idea of what voting leave would give), and work on the UK''s real problems. I've no doubt the UK economy would show an immediate upturn as a result.

Think you mean Article 50, but yes... agree.

 

[QPR Oslo]

Think you mean Article 50, but yes... agree.

Yes, fixed thanks.

 

[ELLERS]

They should cancel the Article 50 and the Leave process immediately, no new referendum ( the last ome should never have been held, the issues are complex and people had little good idea of what voting leave would give), and work on the UK''s real problems. I've no doubt the UK economy would show an immediate upturn as a result.

This sort of rubbish is dangerous to democracy. You need to get over it and respect the will of the people.
WE ARE LEAVING so move on

 

[QPR Oslo]

This sort of rubbish is dangerous to democracy. You need to get over it and respect the will of the people.
WE ARE LEAVING so move on

I would say the big danger to democracy was last year's vote where the leaders of the leave vote had differing views on what Leave was going to mean, and people voting for it a hugely varied expectancy of what it would mean, which often was not what they will probably get. Leave or Remain was far too simplistic.

People like you telling people to move on is a greater threat to democracy.

We may well be Leaving, but a cold eyed review of where we are and are going on this, and of what will happen if we cancel this process now, would result in cancelling it now, or at the very least putting it on a long hold for a proper review, now.

 

[seagullhoop]

This sort of rubbish is dangerous to democracy. You need to get over it and respect the will of the people.
WE ARE LEAVING so move on

The actual will of the people is fluid and constantly changing - it means nothing when the leave campaign was threaded with lies and misinformation and people had no idea on the details of any deal they were voting for.

Saying 'TWOTP' over and over like a cultish mantra gives it no more credence that the first time it was trotted out by a PM who doesn't even believe in Brexit. It belongs with other asinine statements like 'Brexit means Brexit' - it's frankly meaningless.

What is dangerous for democracy is a government hell bent on seismic scale social and economic upheaval with absolutely no idea of the effects it will have on those very people you claim to speak for.

Remember this is a form for discussion - moving on isn't an option for me while I so vehemently oppose what is happening.

It takes 2 (or more to continue the debate), happy to reply to anyone who chooses to post their (hopefully non-shouty) thoughts and opinions.

 

[ELLERS]

what was so hard about it...
leave or remain? it's not rocket science. As for lies, you need to look at Major, Blair and Brown who gave away this country to the EU. I don't remember having a choice or say on it then? At least you got a democratic vote last year.