Daily Racing Thread Sunday 2nd. July 2017

  • Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
  • Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!
Right chaps, Wimbledon starts tomorrow and i think there's a bit of value to be had in taking on Rafa in his quarter of the draw. He's odds on at 10/11 to win through to the semi finals which is a hell of a short price given three or four points:

1. He's not got past the quarter finals since 2011.
2. He's focussed his entire season around winning the French - something you would think he does every year but actually, his schedule this year was intense over clay - playing all 4 warm ups before the French then winning the big one - fatigue may play a part.
3. His game is not greatly suited to grass any longer with the ball kicking on more readily than clay which places more stress on his reasonably suspect knees.
4. He's not had any warm ups on grass.

At 10/11, given those points, he looks like he's a fairly strong lay bet for me at roughly evens on Betfair (if anyone doesn't agree feel free to take my evens on the machine tonight).

Cilic is 2nd fav in that quarter but he's 4/1 and i didn't like the way he folded a bit in the Queens final. From one set up he was hammered in the first tie break before a couple of unforced errors led to him losing the final set tie breaker when he really should have been grabbing the brass ring. 4/1 seems a little short.

Kei Nishikori ((10/1) to win this quarter of the draw (i.e. reach the semi final)) looks to have a progressive profile in the event. Struggling early in his career to get to grips with grass before seemingly cracking it over the last 5 years with back to back 3rd and 4th round exits. He's performed well in his last 6 grand slams, reaching the quarters and semi's on a few occasions. He's 10/1 in a few places and looks fair value at that price. No certainty of course but a solid player who's threatening a semi final appearance and who is in the right quarter of the draw to do so.


My bets are:

Lay Nadal in his quarter of the draw @ evens
Back Nishikori to win that same quarter of the draw @10/1
 
Last edited:
Couple of interesting bets today at Uttoxeter:

4.05 Ebony Express 5/1

Dropped to a dangerous mark on return from a year or so off the track. 122 is 9lbs below his last winning mark. That win was the Imperial Cup. There's a course and distance question but if fit he'll win. I'm happy to take 5/1 to find out if he is raring to go or not. Rosseti's on a false mark at 140 and can be taken on without much worry. Attest could be on a steep upward curve at the trainers favourite course for the first time but i'm fine with taking on horses on 4 timers in handicaps.

5.10 Arty Campbell 14/1 each way

A fairly good flat horse, having won off 79 this year, who gets to run off 98 in a handicap hurdle today having been in an out for claimers over obstacles throughout the course of the last 5 runs. The yard have jocked up Dickie Johnson today so i think they will mean business and i like the each way look of the race with just 10 runners. If they've been applying the handbrake for the last few months i'd be quietly confident he's got a stone in hand which should be enough to be very competitive off a fairly low weight.

Theo won well the other day for the good Dr but i wasn't sure he wanted half a mile extra. To be honest i'm not sure why they are running in this race as there's no penalty for winning a conditionals race and todays conditions aren't perfect. He's obviously the most likely winner but he's worth taking on at 8/11.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gazboy and rudebwoy
well if you're doing tennis , i'm doing le tour , was bigger odds before yesterday but geraint thomas is still available at 20/1 ,
showed his form yesterday winning the opnening time trial , a genuine all rounder , which is essential to win , two years ago he was the strongest rider on the tour ,until his mishap with a telegraph post he was a certainty for a podium finish .
although froome is the main man of the sky team , if he should suffer an accident or not be quite 100% , geraint is joint leader , which means all efforts will go to him , he's no doubt capable , so at the odds , 1/4 odds a place he is a fine bet to finish top three or even win . ymlaen cmyru
 
  • Like
Reactions: attivo, gazboy and Bostonbob
ebony express i did las night for the same obvious reasons , newland has them ready first time after a lay off and the fav is false .

good luck

Chelsea Lad at windsor surely must be a proper fav at 2/1 , although i shall be having a saver on Murad Khan , been gelded and his stable are now in rude form .
 
  • Like
Reactions: attivo and gazboy
With acknowledgements to Cyclonic:

W.C. Fields: "Horse sense is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people."
 
Bostonbob said:
Right chaps, Wimbledon starts tomorrow and i think there's a bit of value to be had in taking on Rafa in his quarter of the draw. He's odds on at 10/11 to win through to the semi finals which is a hell of a short price given three or four points:

1. He's not got past the quarter finals since 2011.
2. He's focussed his entire season around winning the French - something you would think he does every year but actually, his schedule this year was intense over clay - playing all 4 warm ups before the French then winning the big one - fatigue may play a part.
3. His game is not greatly suited to grass any longer with the ball kicking on more readily than clay which places more stress on his reasonably suspect knees.
4. He's not had any warm ups on grass.

At 10/11, given those points, he looks like he's a fairly strong lay bet for me at roughly evens on Betfair (if anyone doesn't agree feel free to take my evens on the machine tonight).

Cilic is 2nd fav in that quarter but he's 4/1 and i didn't like the way he folded a bit in the Queens final. From one set up he was hammered in the first tie break before a couple of unforced errors led to him losing the final set tie breaker when he really should have been grabbing the brass ring. 4/1 seems a little short.

Kei Nishikori ((10/1) to win this quarter of the draw (i.e. reach the semi final)) looks to have a progressive profile in the event. Struggling early in his career to get to grips with grass before seemingly cracking it over the last 5 years with back to back 3rd and 4th round exits. He's performed well in his last 6 grand slams, reaching the quarters and semi's on a few occasions. He's 10/1 in a few places and looks fair value at that price. No certainty of course but a solid player who's threatening a semi final appearance and who is in the right quarter of the draw to do so.


My bets are:

Lay Nadal in his quarter of the draw @ evens
Back Nishikori to win that same quarter of the draw @10/1
Click to expand...

Young un getting you up early?????
 
WONGA SWINGER 2:00 Uttoxeter 4/1
A transformed horse of late and struck up a really good rapport with young Deutsch. Had a break since the last win but looks a fine bet to continue the upward progress.
It's a 4/1+ race and the free bet will be going on OPTIMISTIC BIAS who I strongly fancy to complete the 4 timer.
 
The listed summer cup at Uttoxeter looks a very open race. I'm having 2 stabs at solving it with Fact of the Matter for Jamie Snowden and Vintage Vinnie for the lovely Rebecca. The former had a good return from his season over fences and may well be open to more improvement. After his Cheltenham win in April the trainer stated this race would be his target, 14/1. The latter romped to an easy win lto at Aintree. Has gone up considerably in the handicap as a result but may still have something in hand, 12/1. Will probably have a few multiples with the other Uttoxeter selections already up here so good luck everyone.
 
Jeremy's Girl 12/1 in the last race in Curragh. Won on the bridle making her reappearance after a long lay-off off and is definitely still well handicapped. Softened ground a plus and she's a nice price to follow up today.
 
Bostonbob said:
Right chaps, Wimbledon starts tomorrow and i think there's a bit of value to be had in taking on Rafa in his quarter of the draw...
Click to expand...

Surely the most obvious lay of the whole tournament is Andy Murray. He has already made his excuses about playing injured, so all that remains to be found is the no-name ranked in the hundreds who is going to knock him out in the first week.

Perhaps a sensible policy would be to look for somebody in Murray’s quarter of the draw who is going to get to the semi-finals instead of him.

SaveTheHumans said:
Jeremy's Girl 12/1 in the last race in Curragh. Won on the bridle making her reappearance after a long lay-off off and is definitely still well handicapped.
Click to expand...

Is that not a doppelgänger? Jeremy’s Girl is really Diane Abbott – surely putting up too much overweight these days (11lb officially!) and on some form of medication. <laugh>
 
SaveTheHumans said:
Jeremy's Girl 12/1 in the last race in Curragh. Won on the bridle making her reappearance after a long lay-off off and is definitely still well handicapped. Softened ground a plus and she's a nice price to follow up today.
Click to expand...

Scrap that one, ground change and she has been pulled. More good than she needs.
 
Bostonbob said:
Right chaps, Wimbledon starts tomorrow and i think there's a bit of value to be had in taking on Rafa in his quarter of the draw. He's odds on at 10/11 to win through to the semi finals which is a hell of a short price given three or four points:

1. He's not got past the quarter finals since 2011.
2. He's focussed his entire season around winning the French - something you would think he does every year but actually, his schedule this year was intense over clay - playing all 4 warm ups before the French then winning the big one - fatigue may play a part.
3. His game is not greatly suited to grass any longer with the ball kicking on more readily than clay which places more stress on his reasonably suspect knees.
4. He's not had any warm ups on grass.

At 10/11, given those points, he looks like he's a fairly strong lay bet for me at roughly evens on Betfair (if anyone doesn't agree feel free to take my evens on the machine tonight).

Cilic is 2nd fav in that quarter but he's 4/1 and i didn't like the way he folded a bit in the Queens final. From one set up he was hammered in the first tie break before a couple of unforced errors led to him losing the final set tie breaker when he really should have been grabbing the brass ring. 4/1 seems a little short.

Kei Nishikori ((10/1) to win this quarter of the draw (i.e. reach the semi final)) looks to have a progressive profile in the event. Struggling early in his career to get to grips with grass before seemingly cracking it over the last 5 years with back to back 3rd and 4th round exits. He's performed well in his last 6 grand slams, reaching the quarters and semi's on a few occasions. He's 10/1 in a few places and looks fair value at that price. No certainty of course but a solid player who's threatening a semi final appearance and who is in the right quarter of the draw to do so.


My bets are:

Lay Nadal in his quarter of the draw @ evens
Back Nishikori to win that same quarter of the draw @10/1
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with you about Nadal but looking at the draw its hard to see which player is going to beat him. On all known form no player in his mini section has a chance against him, on any surface. Then in the quarters barring upsets it'll be Nishikori or Cilic. Nishikori isn't exactly known as being a great grass court player, hes never made it past the 4th round. Biggest threats to my eye look like being Cilic or a surprise run from American Steve Johnson.

Favourite fortnight of the year, follow tennis all year round but Wimbledon is something else. Hoping my boy Muzza can defend his title but form has been terrible so far this year.

No bets for me this year but anyone looking for a bit of value have a look at the ladies, no Serena this year so its a wide open tournament and the odds reflect that. Two for me that the odds seem too big on are Kerber(20/1) who made the final last year and is the top seed! Also Coco Vandeweghe(22/1) she loves the grass and her game is well suited to it, her big serve will win her loads of free points and get her out of trouble.
 
I think Stenographer looks over priced in the 2.15 at 16s.Even though the old boy is running off top weight he has won here before and this doesn't look the strongest hcapp.In 2.45 Rattling Jewel looks to have a decent chance after winning c&d lto and 5lbs hike looks fair, 12s looks a decent price.Both very compatative races so happy to go ew. You know when we've hit July when tennis and cycling get more of a mention than the horsies!:eek:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back