Almost every year, there are two types of Derby or Oaks:
- There is the race where there is a short-priced favourite that has won one of the trials impressively and expectation is that it will trot up at Epsom and be hailed as the next champion.
- There is the race where the betting is wide open because nothing has won a trial in an authoritative way so all the talk is of it being a mediocre or poor race, something that can only really be ascertained after the race has been run.
It is no surprise that
Rhododendron is a short price for the Oaks as she was second in the 1000 Guineas and looks like a middle distance filly; however, she could do without the rough passage she had at Newmarket given the added unknown of the Epsom undulations.
The various Oaks trials produced several respectable performances, which is enough to make the favourite a bad bet for anyone that was not on ante post months ago.
Enable created a favourable impression when defeating
Alluringly in the Cheshire Oaks but both of them would need to find a few pounds as that form looks inferior to the 1000 Guineas, which is likely to be very well represented thanks to
Hydrangea and
Intricately as well as the favourite. Over in France,
Sobetsu well outpointed
Coronet in the Prix Saint-Alary, but will it be easy ground at Epsom? At HQ,
Horseplay took care of
Isabel De Urbina in the Pretty Polly and the step up in distance should not be a problem.
Rain Goddess would also be taking a big step up in trip but she has not placed in three runs for Ballydoyle and would need to find massive improvement. I do not expect
Winter to even show up as I think they will keep her to a mile.
I am not surprised that
Churchill is likely to be stood in his Ballydoyle box on 3rd June, so Coolmore will be multiply represented by
Cliffs Of Moher,
Yucatan,
Capri,
Douglas Macarthur,
Orderofthegarter,
Sir John Lavery and
Venice Beach who all contested Derby trials, some of which produced muddling results. Jockey bookings in the week before the race are likely to shape the market.
Cracksman has not run since winning the Epsom Derby Trial, but the horse that he just pipped that day,
Permian, has won twice since – including the Dante in
Cracksman’s absence – and will presumably be supplemented. It is hard to see
Mirage Dancer reversing Chester form with
Cliffs Of Moher.
I am not entirely convinced that Epsom will be
Eminent’s cup of tea and the extra half mile could stretch the 2000 Guineas fifth.
As far as a Derby bet is concerned, I do like Lingfield Derby Trial winner
Best Solution, who may not have beaten a very good field but has proven that he stays and won on the track that is most similar to Epsom. It is hard to see the favourite that day,
Sir John Lavery, turning around sixteen lengths and I think Saeed bin Suroor’s colt will be the Godolphin number one on June 3rd ahead of
Benbatl.
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