2000 Guineas
Lots written elsewhere on the 2000G field so I won’t keep you too long.
Churchill is a worthy favourite and will probably win. Where is the Achilles heel? Well it’s his female side as obviously Galileo can do little wrong. My eyes look at his grand-dam and it’s a Henry Candy (purchased and trained) wonder called Airwave. Many 606ers will remember the 2003 Temple Stakes at Sandown (where it was then run), and Cheveley Park winner Airwave was confidently expected to win on her 3yo debut. After 5 seconds of the race her task looked impossible as she was totally left, and about 50yds behind the field. She did win and she won well, but she didn’t win again that year as Choisir lowered her colours at Royal Ascot and she was never the same filly again. Now this filly was a very good 2yo, but she was a bit of a surprise and she doesn’t come from a good family.
Worrying for me is the fact that her Storm Cat daughter Meow (Churchill’s dam) was similarly a good 2yo but never won after her first season. She also was a 5f specialist. Now this may not matter as, for example, Hethersett was out of a mare who never won over further than 6f: yet won the Leger. But that dam, Bride Elect, was out of a filly who finished 2nd in the Oaks: Airwave’s pedigree makes no such claims. If Churchill stays 12f I will give up writing about breeding. My question is will he find the Newmarket 8f a bit tough? Comparisons are being made with Frankel, in that the great one had a sprinting dam. But the stamina background to Kind is very different to Meow.
Eminent suffers from no such stamina concerns. His grand-dam is an Oaks 2nd and the female line is an Aga Khan family that has been the class act at Lanwades Stud, and easily Kirsten Rausing’s best family. Eminent looks to have the sort of pedigree you’d like to see in a Derby horse. Even though the grandsire is Kingmambo he just balances out the stamina elsewhere in the pedigree. So my issue with Eminent is will he have the turn of foot to beat some of these faster horses.
Barney Roy is by Excelebration out of a Galileo mare, and despite this the first observation might be that the female line is a bit weak and lacking the class sufficient to make this colt Classic material. But dig a bit deeper and you find that the grand dam was a reasonable filly and that this is the family of the admirable Exceller: , the only horse to beat 2 US Triple Crown winners. The family is due a a good horse and Barney Roy may be it. I can’t see him failing to beat Dream Castle again, and believe this to be Godolphin’s leading representative.
Al Wukair is by the sprinter Dream ahead out of a winning mare by Machiavellian, who in turn is out of a top class mare who won the Prix de Diane. He has already won over 8f so that makes it sound OK. I would love this colt to win as he represents a non-Northern Dancer sire line but you can’t get away from Dream Ahead being a sprinter. So the question is what is the value of the colt’s 8f win? Races in France can be very different to the UK in that they often dawdle for 5f and then sprint for the rest. Dream Ahead’s son may not pull and that type of 8f race may suit him, but how will he be in a fast run 2000G?
So my heart says Al Wukair but my head says Barney Roy. I’ll probably be proved totally wrong with Churchill and Eminent fighting out the finish!
