Wrong again, the Tories won the last election because they attacked the Liberal vote - if that vote then returned then the majority would be gone. From the by elections since the referendum we have only seen that the 2 big parties are being slaughtered and that the Liberals are, very much, back in the reckoning. Why ? Because they are the only party with an unecquivocal position on Brexit.
Effect of Brexit
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The Lib Dems are an insignificant small protest party, an election is unlikely to change that very much. The other reason the Tories won the last election was the nation's rejection of the Labour Party, even after five years of a Tory led coalition where austerity was required. Many also voted for the Tories because of the promised guarantee of a vote on the EU.
You say that - but your insignificant small protest party was not so small before the last election - it was thanks to them the Tories got control. They were punished for that and if people who voted for them in 2010 to 2015 return they could be back. Add to that the fact that many Remainers are going to punish the Tory party for calling the referendum and you may find the ground shifts under the Tories and as you say some of the votes they got were for the promise of a referendum - those people have no need to vote Tory again.
I would not bet against the Tories for now but if they take their position for granted things could change quickly.
I was describing the LD's as they are now. They received only 2/3rd's of the votes UKIP had in 2015. If the Labour vote collapses as expected plus boundary changes that should be another 20 seats for the Tories. I would suggest Brexit would have to be considered a disaster for any substantial change against the Tories.
I have often said on here that as I see things there is vacuum in Westminster. The government is trying to sort out the mess of the referendum, making all sorts of sound bites, but delivering little. As Leo said the other day there would be an outcry about the NHS if Brexit didn't dominate, but there are many things that they should be attending to. While Brexit dominates the agenda they are avoiding a lot of scrutiny about matters that a normal government would have to attend to.
Even my most ardent Labour supporting friends are in despair about how their party is going. Under the current leadership it will spend years in the wilderness they believe, and it really does grieve them. Next month there are two elections in Labour held seats, and they actually hope that the results are bad enough for the leader to resign, although they cannot give a name for an outstanding candidate to succeed him.
The Liberals were shafted by the Tories after giving them support to steer the country onto a firmer footing. The current leader is not exactly charismatic, but he is at least trying to rebuild the party from the bottom up with considerable success. I see that they now have taken control of Three Rivers DC from NOC due to a by-election victory, and across the country they are winning seats that that were thought beyond their reach. When looking ahead it would be foolish to try and say where 16 million voters will be tempted to cast their vote at a general election. From what I read many will support the only party that is putting forward a pro EU case and if that happened it would produce a realignment of UK government.
Even my most ardent Labour supporting friends are in despair about how their party is going. Under the current leadership it will spend years in the wilderness they believe, and it really does grieve them. Next month there are two elections in Labour held seats, and they actually hope that the results are bad enough for the leader to resign, although they cannot give a name for an outstanding candidate to succeed him.
The Liberals were shafted by the Tories after giving them support to steer the country onto a firmer footing. The current leader is not exactly charismatic, but he is at least trying to rebuild the party from the bottom up with considerable success. I see that they now have taken control of Three Rivers DC from NOC due to a by-election victory, and across the country they are winning seats that that were thought beyond their reach. When looking ahead it would be foolish to try and say where 16 million voters will be tempted to cast their vote at a general election. From what I read many will support the only party that is putting forward a pro EU case and if that happened it would produce a realignment of UK government.
They may be unequivocal on Brexit but they lost support permanently because of their Faustian pact with the Tories, backing policy after policy that was fundamentally illiberal. If JC had been fervently pro-EU and anti-Brexit he would be mopping up votes left right and centre. His unclear position hasn't helped him. The racism of so many Brextieers goes beyond usual party lines unfortunately, so perhaps he would've lost votes by being more pro-Europe. I don't know. It seems a deliberate mish-mash, but ultimately the majority of the UK population will pay a heavy price for a few billionaires' short-term greed and hunger for greater power.
I agree with a lot of what you say andy, but I think that the Liberals did actually stop many of the more outlandish ideas of the right. As the junior partner in the coalition there were many things that they were forced to accept. They could have walked away, but I give them credit for sticking to their promise to see the term out.
The Lib Dems were annihilated in the 2015 general election going from 49 MPs down to 8. The electorate could not work out what they were actually for, apart from being a drag on the Tories in coalition. Nick Clegg was never forgiven regarding his false promises on tuition fees by the younger voters. They could not wait to punish him.
They now have the grand total of 9 MPs. Their anti Brexit stance will gain them some support amongst remainers but this USP will certainly fade away once we have left the EU. If the fixed term parliament is adhered to the general election will be in 2020, well after the divorce would have been completed.
The Labour Party is an on-going car crash. Even if Corbyn is removed, with the present Labour Party voting system, another left winger will be chosen. The LP will probably need another electoral defeat to force the National Executive to make the necessary changes so it broadens appeal.
They now have the grand total of 9 MPs. Their anti Brexit stance will gain them some support amongst remainers but this USP will certainly fade away once we have left the EU. If the fixed term parliament is adhered to the general election will be in 2020, well after the divorce would have been completed.
The Labour Party is an on-going car crash. Even if Corbyn is removed, with the present Labour Party voting system, another left winger will be chosen. The LP will probably need another electoral defeat to force the National Executive to make the necessary changes so it broadens appeal.
Could Nick Clegg have actually stopped the senior partner in the coalition from imposing the increases on student fees? It was not his choice, but one of the governments.
No, but the students blamed him for climbing into bed with the perceived devils. I think the Lib Dems should be forever applauded for putting the country first although many of their MPs realised a coalition was the only realistic opportunity to be in power.
The electorate have short memories as Winston found out.
I agree with you. Now the students have turned their fury on the Tories for not giving them a chance to vote on their future.
It was a mess with none of the parties having much to offer or anyone in whom to really believe. Yes, they may have curtailed the madder Torys' ideas, but the student fees saga will be one to plague them for years. I think they should've walked before agreeing to that.
It's interesting to me how negative politics seems to be the order of things. "I could never vote..." being how many people start the answer as to for whom they would vote. Sometimes it seems a question of crossing off options in order of dislike and seeing if there's anything left to vote for. I've voted this way for most of my voting years.
That is an interesting thought. I actually got to speak to candidates before an election and found out which one I thought would be best to represent me. I lost interest in those who simply followed a party line. The choice was limited as the Labour candidate never bothered to show up.
In general elections I've always voted Labour to keep the Tories out. My parents left the country due to Maggie, and I've been brought up to not act selfishly and want more than people around me. The media and popular culture are designed to make people want more/what they don't have, and for what? To make a handful of people on this planet richer whilst destroying it.
I earn a decent wage and I've worked all my adult life, I'll never be able to afford a house in the area I was born in without being given inheritance/winning Euromillions. Brexit is only going to create more of a gulf between the few rich and the many poor. I'm still waiting for SH to give us one single example of how Brexit is going to improve my life...
I don't see how anybody could give you an example of how brexit could improve your life. Even at it's extreme what does brexit do?
1 It gives the UK the right to limit immigration. However if that were a real problem we could have cut hundreds of thousands from non EU immigration over recent years. EU citizens largely work and pay taxes here. Conclusion: we will still need foreign workers and quitting the EU will not help
2 It gives us the right to do trade deals with non EU countries. OK - that is mixed. As a 50 million people country the deals we do will not have the clout of a 500 million block. Also the deals we do must replace any business we lose with the EU. Given that 44% of our exports go to the EU that is a tough ask. Conclusion: if all goes as brexiters hope we could be not much worse off.
3 We are not subject to EU Courts. Well, ask the man on the Clapham Omnibus to name even one piece of legislation the EU passed that we opposed. Or one Court decision that we would have done differently. Concluson: there could be some but they are not a "better in your life" thing
4 We have reduced an over-valued pound. Conclusion: the Bank of England could have signalled it wanted this whenever it liked. Markets would have responded - and in less severe ways.
I await being informed of benefits Ihave overlooked
1 It gives the UK the right to limit immigration. However if that were a real problem we could have cut hundreds of thousands from non EU immigration over recent years. EU citizens largely work and pay taxes here. Conclusion: we will still need foreign workers and quitting the EU will not help
2 It gives us the right to do trade deals with non EU countries. OK - that is mixed. As a 50 million people country the deals we do will not have the clout of a 500 million block. Also the deals we do must replace any business we lose with the EU. Given that 44% of our exports go to the EU that is a tough ask. Conclusion: if all goes as brexiters hope we could be not much worse off.
3 We are not subject to EU Courts. Well, ask the man on the Clapham Omnibus to name even one piece of legislation the EU passed that we opposed. Or one Court decision that we would have done differently. Concluson: there could be some but they are not a "better in your life" thing
4 We have reduced an over-valued pound. Conclusion: the Bank of England could have signalled it wanted this whenever it liked. Markets would have responded - and in less severe ways.
I await being informed of benefits Ihave overlooked
You have missed the point Leo
Brexit will:
1. Give us our sovereignty back ! Like the man on the sinking ship retains a certain 'dignity' while doing it. We could have a certain interim period of 'self determination' until jumping into some kind of mini TTIP with uncle Donald over the pond. (Then you can forget sovereignty for evermore).
2. We could also leave the Eurovision song contest
3. A future People's Republic of England could bring everything under public ownership without having to worry about EU. rules (unlikely scenario).
4. On a more serious note both the major parties are seriously crippled (this will be slightly more delayed for the Tories) and if the next election is held mainly on the management of Brexit then we could see the breakdown of the 2 party system in the UK.
5. We could now see a united Ireland in our lifetime.
yorkshirehornet
Well-Known Member
Throwing in my tuppence worth... and I do have quite conservative economic views.. .so not an unashamed lefty etc etc
With the fall of the pound i have been worse off this year and as the effect of the currency deflation affects all other goods i am likely to be significantly worse off at least in the next 12 months. The rise in FTSE has done little to the £ in my pocket.
Prices above the board will rise this year.
There are unlikely to be ANY real gains for me financially for the medium term. In fact I will be worse off..... as will the vast majority of the UK population.
The main in the street was fooled to vote BREXIT in my opinion.. and will have to pay more for most things.
With the fall of the pound i have been worse off this year and as the effect of the currency deflation affects all other goods i am likely to be significantly worse off at least in the next 12 months. The rise in FTSE has done little to the £ in my pocket.
Prices above the board will rise this year.
There are unlikely to be ANY real gains for me financially for the medium term. In fact I will be worse off..... as will the vast majority of the UK population.
The main in the street was fooled to vote BREXIT in my opinion.. and will have to pay more for most things.
2. We could also leave the Eurovision song contest
A spot which, in all probability, will be gleefully taken by New Zealand.
Or, god forbid, simply be retained by Scotland...
