Transfer Rumours Saints January Transfer Window Rumour Thread

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TBD said:
I'm confused as to how something so subjective like a 'chance' can be made into a stat? Does it include all shots? Because shots from 30 yards out are half chances at best. The stat doesn't say anything about the nature of the chances, so perhaps this year we've had a lot more half chances but many fewer really good clear cut chances. It may not mean that at all. Would be interesting if anyone could give some details about the methodology as at the moment I don't think that stat is all that useful.
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go back a few pages and there is a nice pretty chart :)
 
I was waiting for someone with a ounce of IT ability to put that up here. Thanks Qwerty.
 
Qwerty said:
Here's another pretty chart.

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This is just streching data to make conclusions which can't be backed up by the data itself. If everytime a team got within 40 yds it wacked the ball 10 feet over the bar they would appear 'wasteful' due to 'bad finishing'. Alll you can say from that data is we take a lot more shots per goal than other teams. But whether these shots constitute good chances or not is another matter entirely.
 
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Qwerty said:
Here's another pretty chart.

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Click to expand...

I see that so clearly as a statistical outlier. Can't last. Won't last, imo. Either that or we have literally the worst attack in the PL. By 50%. I don't see that. 50% worse than every single other team? Hull? Sunderland?

There are two ways to see it, I know. One is that we're truly that bad.

The other is to see that we are a long way off the normal range so we're going to head back towards the mean. I'm clearly in the second camp so I'm quite sanguine.

Vin
 
Ok so the expected goals scored and conceded seem to be a tad more useful as far as I can determine. Essentially they score each shot taken based on the contex in which it was taken for how likely it was to be a goal. Eg a shot at an open goal from 2 yards out would be neigh on 10 and a 45 yard pot shot would be 1. But again this should be taken with a bucket load of salt because it's still subjective.
 
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TBD said:
This is just streching data to make conclusions which can't be backed up by the data itself. If everytime a team got within 40 yds it wacked the ball 10 feet over the bar they would appear 'wasteful' due to 'bad finishing'. Alll you can say from that data is we take a lot more shots per goal than other teams. But whether these shots constitute good chances or not is another matter entirely.
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Arguably. The second one I posted deals with that more. On the quality of our shots we should score 1.4 goals per game, but we don't. You can see the expected goals from Saturday too. We should have won 1-0.

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(more here: https://twitter.com/Caley_graphics)

Alternatively that is stretching data quite far. There are definitely a lot of different valid conclusions you can draw from it. I think what you say is explained by us taking too many long shots, particularly in the first half of the season. We have turned down the long shots since then.

Just to add that I didn't make that (someone smart did) and I'm not trying to make any particular points - the guy who makes them updates it every few weeks and today is the day, so I posted it.
 
Qwerty said:
Arguably. The second one I posted deals with that more. On the quality of our shots we should score 1.4 goals per game, but we don't. You can see the expected goals from Saturday too. We should have won 1-0.

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(more here: https://twitter.com/Caley_graphics)

Alternatively that is stretching data quite far. There are definitely a lot of different valid conclusions you can draw from it. I think what you say is explained by us taking too many long shots, particularly in the first half of the season. We have turned down the long shots since then.

Just to add that I didn't make that (someone smart did) and I'm not trying to make any particular points - the guy who makes them updates it every few weeks and today is the day, so I posted it.
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Yeh wasn't directing any of my comments at you! And it's always interesting to see these stats so cheers for posting them!
 
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TBD said:
Yeh wasn't directing any of my comments at you! And it's always interesting to see these stats so cheers for posting them!
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No probs. I love it. But you can get really in the weeds and forget what you were doing in the first place. (talking to the wife, probably)
 
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I also wonder how much really woolly and non scientific things like 'belief' comes into chance conversion? Does a team which is winning and a player which is scoring only need that one good or even decent chance just because of some part of their mentality toward to the game. Whereas perhaps for us at the moment the previous chances and losses haunt the minds of our players. I have absolutley no way of knowing but it's interesting. It may also explain the phenomen of big teams and great managers getting victories when they played poorly. I thinks it's things like this which mean while stats are useful and interesting, at the moment they don't fully explain things. Anyway sorry I think I've properly derailed what was once a transfer ruomour thread!
 
Stats :)

We watch the games. We know we create some good chances. We know we are not scoring many. We know we are not looking quite as exciting as previously seasons. We know we've lost 4 league games in a row. We know it's a bit sticky. We know it ain't a disaster yet.


I don't have a graph for this though. Just two eyes.
 
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Things must be desperate when we are dictating our desired transfer policy based solely on statistics and graphs rather than actually watching football. How about using that squidgy thing in our skull
to observe and analyse our play?

Or is that a little to much for a Sunday evening?
 
I thought this was the Saints' transfer rumour thread. But no, just lots of charts and stats. I don't suppose there are any transfers in rumours, are there?
 
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fatletiss said:
Stats :)

We watch the games. We know we create some good chances. We know we are not scoring many. We know we are not looking quite as exciting as previously seasons. We know we've lost 4 league games in a row. We know it's a bit sticky. We know it ain't a disaster yet.


I don't have a graph for this though. Just two eyes.
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We know we have been to Hull, Prague and Burnley in recent weeks and seen a load of ****e. But we will be there on Wednesday cheering them on.
 
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