Will Pochettino stay or go?

I will ignore it, because you've been trying to manoeuvre it away from the original point you made, which has been shown to be incorrect.

 

1) I haven't maneuvered anything, I've been demonstrating how the value of investment is equal or higher to the resulting value of the club - the main pillar of my argument from the beginning. You ignore it at your convenience.

2) Nothing has been shown to be incorrect; you have merely come up with a number, £82m, which is the sum of all the investment that was documented up until the end of the 2012/13 season, plus the £30m for the new training ground, and conveniently ignoring the part where they say it is now going to cost an indefinite amount more than that. What you have done is you have provided the lowest possible figure which has been invested. You have by no means even come close to the actual figure.

I maintain, using my last few (totally relevant) comments as pretty good evidence, that the club would probably not sell for more than has been invested, and that both figures are probably over £100m.

 

that's what I said. nor does the cost necessarily rise to meet the value of the product.

average 36k attendance over the years. that's maybe another 3-4m income per season? the 10k extra capacity readily available is worth something, yeah.

hang on, a club's value isn't dependent on what is spent but you're now saying that the 300m spent is a factor making it more valuable?

It's only worth something if you liquidate the club IMO. so it's a safety net for the owner/creditors, granted. still easier said than done though as balram chanrai found out.

 

No, that is not at all what I am saying. The amount invested directly increases the value of the club. He spends £300m and of course the value increases, but not by £300m. By quite a bit less. That is a loss.

 

no it doesn't. it doesn't at all.

 

If the owner invests £30m on a new training ground for the club, the immediate effect is that the club is now worth £30m more.

 

For clarity, investing 300m today and putting it in the club's bank account will increase the balance sheet by 300m.

investing 300m over ten years and frittering it away ending up where you started doesn't increase the value at all.

 

in 10 years 30m of assets will not be on the balance sheet.

 

"Immediate effect" =\= 10 years later.

 

Whether the amount invested increases the value of the club depends on what you buy. If I spend £5000 on buying my neighbours garden I have increased the value of my property...if I spend the same amount on expensive but ghastly redecorating then I haven't. I would still hazard a guess that there is a profit to be made from total investments if Saints was sold, but very hard to gauge...because in a way you have to consider how much you would make from that money invested in other things..gold, for instance. Businessmen like running businesses, because to be honest you can just sit on a billion pounds and do nothing. I doubt you feel any richer having 300 million than having 200 million...so they run businesses for reasons other than pure money.

 

I wouldn't. There are way too many dodgy would-be owners out there.

 

If they say "it's going to cost at least £30m", it is not reasonable to assume that it will cost a lot more than that. Considering it was almost complete when they said that it seems they would have a pretty good idea. If it was going to cost more than £40m, they'd have said more than £40m. So even assuming it's £92m, which I'd say is probably overestimating significantly, we're still nowhere near £200m, as was your original claim.

Now you're saying £100m, so how exactly are you not moving the goalposts?

 

If someone bought Saints purely to asset strip, say sold all the team and bought non league players on peanuts they would bring in £150m+ straight away. Villa's squad has nowhere near as much resale value as Saints. They would have more value due to their size, attendance and fanbase though.

Then when you are talking about Premier League clubs compared to Champions League clubs outside of the UK you are forgetting that the PL is the most watched competition in the world. Any team in the CL will only be worth as much as a smaller team in the PL. There is much more potential for increasing commercial revenue due to brand visibilty around the world with a PL team.

So yes I would suggest that Villa is worth more as a long term investment for someone wanting to make them 'big' again, but Saints has much less baggage in terms of current wage bill and would also return much more if immediate asset stripping took place.

In that way Saints are worth £200m.

 

so why are you discussing 300m spent at villa as if it's significant? Villa are a lower mid table club with only a larger stadium and a couple of thousand more fans than us.

i can't speak for their academy setup. it used to be good. not so much any more.

 

This may be right Impsaint, but begs the question if it is right, why the hell we only generated 6m (I think that was the commercial income figure)

 

At least this is relevant to Pochettino.

 

That was Ralph's point...we aren't making enough from the commercial side as we should. This seems to be where Nicola fell down, probably because he was overstretched trying to do it all on his own.

 

There's not anything more anyone can really say. It's just waiting for it to become official now, and some discussion is better than none.

 

But commercial ambition HAS to go hand in hand with on-field success. Which is where the fear of a disconnect is.

 

Terrible when that happens.