The hardest Championship ever?

The hardest Championship ever??

I got thinking that this season is turning out to be a very high level indeed. So I went quickly back on each of the last SIX seasons, at exactly this point in the schedule, virtually all teams on either 30 or 31 games played.

Looking at the relative strengths of each season, but not particularly any one club, I added up the total points gained by the front runners to see if this was an usually strong season ...

Here goes -


2016-17
Newcastle 30 - 65
Brighton 30 - 64
Huddersfield 30 - 58
Reading 31 - 57
Leeds 31 - 54
Sheff Wed 30 - 52
--------------------
Norwich 31 - 50

TOTAL POINTS BY EVERYONE: 400



2015-16
Hull 30 - 59
Middlesbrough 29 - 57
Burnley 31 - 56
Brighton 30 - 56
Sheff Wed 31 - 53
Derby 31 - 51
--------------------
Birmingham 31 - 48

TOTAL POINTS BY EVERYONE: 380



2014-15
Bournemouth 31 - 59
Middlesbrough 30 - 59
Derby 30 - 58
Ipswich 31 - 57
Watford 31 - 56
Norwich 31 - 53
--------------------
Brentford 31 - 52

TOTAL POINTS BY EVERYONE: 394



2013-14
Leicester 30 - 67
Burnley 31 - 60
QPR 29 - 56
Derby 30 - 55
Nottm Forest 30 54
Reading 30 47
--------------------
Brighton 30 - 46

TOTAL POINTS BY EVERYONE: 385



2012-13
Cardiff 30 - 64
Hull 31 - 56
Leicester 30 - 53
Watford 31 53
Crystal Pal 31 - 52
Middlesbrough 31 - 50
--------------------
Brighton 31 - 46

TOTAL POINTS BY EVERYONE: 374



2011-12
West Ham 30 - 57
Southampton 31 - 56
Cardiff 31 - 53
Blackpool 31 - 52
Birmingham 30 - 51
Reading 30 - 51

--------------------
Hull 30 - 50

TOTAL POINTS BY EVERYONE: 370


My intuition has been confirmed. In no other recent season has the sum of points for the top SEVEN at this stage reached 400 points.

Curious how some teams pop up regularly, whilst others are one season wonders.

In part, weighing up these stats and on your own instinct, would you say it is the most difficult season ever for these clubs to get promoted?

And will the three promoted teams in fact come from these seven? Or any surprise likely with a super charge from lower down the table, perhaps unforeseen at present? I say that because on Royals Rendezvous Norwich are seen as a VERY big threat, indeed bigger than Leeds or Sheffield Wednesday ...

Interested as a (well-behaved) Royals fan (as you know!) to hear your thoughts!!

 

Very interesting analysis which sets out the strength in depth in this Division which leads to a point that intrigues me. You often see on this Board comments such as ' we should be in the top 2 ' - 'we should be in the top 6' - ' anything less than promotion is failure ' Why, can I ask, have we more right to expect Promotion over bigger Clubs such as Newcastle, Villa, Birmingham, Wolves, Leeds, Derby, Wednesday, Forest, Cardiff, Fulham or even Clubs like Brighton who recently have been banging on the door. Surely, where we are in the league now does represent some success rather than failure.

 

I also found it interesting Daib0. From our own point of view, it's interesting that in 2014-15 we were in a similar position to ours now. It looks like Leeds may be on a wobble now with 3 defeats in their last 5, but the others are holding their positions well over the season as a whole. Reading coming to CR later will be a test for sure, as will our next match with the Magpies. Thanks for posting this Daib0.

 

Easy answer 1950 - we haven´t, and never have had more right. It´s just an illusion of grandeur that some fans want to believe in.

 

Ain't that just the truth, though you'll never get them to admit it!

 

Well the answers obvious really Newcastle, Villa & us were all in the PL last season, so parachute payments are a massive advantage. Plus we supposedly had a PL quality squad when we were in the PL and really didn't change our squad much in the summer. We also according to the experts (and some posters at the start of the season) had / have a large squad with significant quality in depth compared to our competitors. For those reason alone we should have been a step or 2 ahead of most other teams in this division. This season is / should have been our best chance of getting promoted. Next season we should still have an advantage, but not as significant as this season. The season after that we will be pretty much on par with the rest of the teams mentioned. Many of us said before this season started that it would be harder to get out of this division than it was the last time we got promoted, which some posters on here disputed quiet strongly. This is the main reason why many teams manage to yoyo between the championship & PL before becoming an established PL team. Indeed this was a key part of McNally's 7 year plan to make us a PL team.

 

Its not about having more right than others, everyone including Rotherham at the start of the season has the same right to have hopes or expectations. If theirs was for promotion it appears it was misplaced given their resources. We had at the start of this season every right to expect a good tilt at promotion. You also had the right to not expect it. But I expected a good tilt for a number of reasons;
Norwich came down with a good squad, largely made up of players who have plenty of experience of being at the top end of the championship not to mention Brady, Pritchard and klose.
We had a manager who had in his one season in the championship, had a great win ratio and gained us promotion from 3rd place.
we had parachute payments and a wage bill not matched by many (Infers a better quality squad?)
We were being tipped by many commentators to be second favourites, with the 2nd best squad in the league.
We were not being viewed as a basketcase like Villa.
For all of these reasons, I don't think it is even remotely unrealistic to see anything less than top 6 as failure. Top 2 and promotion, promotion, promotion were surely the target? If you fail to meet a target, does that not equal failure?
And as for this nonsense about "bigger clubs", why exactly are they bigger? Newcastle & Villa I'll give you, Fanbase, attendances, revenue, recent performance history. But the rest? Who has a combination of sellout gates at our inflated prices, our recent record of attendance in the PL, our recent turnover?
Historically we are in one of our best periods and we have a degree of momentum with the parachute payments. This gives us an advantage over our rivals and to say otherwise is bobbins. Of those clubs listed, who has a greater turn over? who has a manager who has got their team promoted from the chmapionship?
We expect because we are both optimistic, but we know that footballing success leans so heavily on financial wellbeing that as a have for the time being we should more often than not beat the have nots.
If we fail (Yes fail!) to get promoted this or next season and we no longer have the advantages of the parachute money, then 7th may start to look like decent performance in a season, but decent vs all the richer teams with more PL money will still be failure. No matter where we are financially we must have targets, once relegation is avoided, playoffs and promotion must and always will be the goal! So even if I then wouldn't expect promotion, I would still see missing the top six as failure.
You dinosaurs seem to revel in being little Norwich and seem to think its a bit rude to want and perhaps dare to expect more from our club. We are not the club of 40 years ago who had bearly set foot in the top flight. We are an archetypal yoyo club, well resourced and supported for the champ, poor and struggling in the PL. With our current resources I simply can't comprehend why you all would see not being promoted as anything but failure? (Except RBF who has made it quite clear that he would be happiest never having to return to the bloated money monster that is the PL!)

To answer diab0, I'm not sure it's any tougher than any other season. I think it almost infers the oposite. That the top 7 have more points than is normal, infers a lack of depth to the division, with far more easy games. Norwich maybe a prime example of this, we have been bang average for the best part of the season, we have beaten most of the bottom half even when playing poorly.
At the other end, do you think Newcastle or Brighton are thinking it's tougher than ever? (By the converse the rest are thinking it will be tougher) I guess we won't know till the end of the season.
Are the top 6-7 better than usual? Or are the rest worse?
I think the top seven may remain the top seven and I could see us maybe piping Leeds for one of the playoff spots (Hope and a little expectation). That said, everyone down to Preston can still think they are in with a shout, but looking behind us, I think Derby and Fulham are certainly threats, Barnsley and Preston less so. we're still far enough out and the table tight enough that 9th upward will fancy their chances.

Bah!

 

Utter nonsense capt Negative.

Bah!

 

Ones inferiority complex being pedalled as the middle ground again!

Bah!

 

I said at the beginning of the season that a top 6 finish should be the minimum for success and I stick to that. As for the Parachute Payments, many other teams have rich owners who provide as much or more than that. My judgement was based on our squad and still is. Now that we're into the home stretch, our squad strength will come into play more and more. Leeds are beginning to falter with 3 losses in their last 5 and we've picked up points on others as well. Newcastle tomorrow will be a real test but if we pass that we should be able to push into the top 6 and stay there.

 

Superb post #7, General.
I agree. If you look at the things stacked in our favour at the start of the season, as you listed above, retaining an experienced, strong (for the championship) squad, parachute money to outbid / out pay rivals for target players, full houses of (normally) passionate supporters every week, then everything should have been geared up for a serious assault at promotion while all those things were stacked in our favour. After next season, parity will be restored across the division in terms of revenue.
So I agree that many fans felt that promotion - or a damned concerted attempt at achieving it, should have been the minimum requirement if the season is to be judged in any way successful. Anything else is failure - what degree of failure depends on the individual.
Wanting and expecting a proper tilt at the top 2 or 3 given all the above should have been mandatory, not seen as "delusions of grandeur" ??
Expecting similar when the financial playing field is level might be a more appropriate time to use disparaging terminology like that.

 

What you call an inferiority complex, I call a reality check, Villa came down with us and have spent many millions, where are they now?

 

Afternoon gents, it´s amazing how just a little provocation will get some people, and always the same ones, up off their backsides ( now I know why I miss carrabuh) .You should really be grateful to the likes of Dave and myself for keeping this place lively.

The question 1950 asked, was ´have we more right to expect promotion than other clubs?` the answer is categorically no! We have as much right as anyone else, to hope for promotion, but we certainly shouldn´t expect it. In fact, I´d go so far as to say, that after our encouraging start to this season, both Alex Neil and the players fell into exactly the same trap, and felt that we had a right to promotion, which very soon accounted for us having a poor spell in the run up to Christmas. The fact that they now finally seem to have realised that just turning up at games isn´t enough, might just have happened in time to help save us. If we don´t take this league seriously and the teams in it, seriously, we´re not going to get out, irrespective of whatever reputation, fans, media or anyone else like to label us with.

Some sections of supporters on some message boards do have illusions of grandeur, it´s by no means an exaggeration or misinterpretation of the truth. They were very much to the fore, especially during our dismal run before Christmas, there wasn´t a day went by, without someone telling us what we should or could be doing, if only we got rid of so-and-so, and just what we could achieve if we did this that and the other. And yes, we are improving, but we´ve done nothing yet, so let´s just see what we´ve actually achieved when the season finally comes to a close. Illusions of grandeur can soon come down to earth and look a bit silly.

 

Good post RBF and no, we don't have a right to promotion any more than any of the other teams do.
IMO, a few things have happened to change our fortunes in recent weeks. The biggest one for me has been the selling of Brady (I know he scored a great goal for Burnley yesterday, but I don't remember him ever getting that close when taking FKs for us!!). We've also had Dijks join us on loan and he has certainly made the left side of our defence much more secure. Finally, AN has admitted that Jacob needed a rest (it seems to have worked wonders for Hoolahan as well).

 

What was that you were bleating on about...oh yes, 'delusions of grandeur'!!
Nail firmly smacked on the head, oh one for whose presence we are all eternally grateful.

 

Some people are reluctant to accept that hope, ambition and anticipation are not necessarily the same as reality. The parachute payments are to help relegated Clubs pay for the inflated wage bills they are left with and does not give us an advantage in the transfer market. Rich owners do give that advantage. Compare our wage bill to most others in our division and you will see what I mean. Even with our gates and the parachute payments we are budgeting a loss of £12m this year - that is reality. Filling your ground every week does not make you a big Club. The likes of Bournemouth and Burnley do that in the Premiership - does that make them big Clubs? If somebody gifted us a new 50k all seated stadium and we were having a decent season in the Premiership would we fill it? - No! 40k? - no. 35k - probably not. Most of the Clubs I mentioned would and that is what, IMO, makes them bigger. I'm not saying that we are ' little Norwich ' but I do not subscribe to the view that being a couple of points outside the promotion battle is under performing for a Club of our size and potential or that where we are in the league is not a serious promotion challenge. Is it unrealistic to hope or anticipate a challenge for promotion - of course it isn't. Would it be realistic for Rotherham or Burton to hope or anticipate a challenge for promotion - of course it isn't. Is it realistic for us to assume that we are a Club that should consider promotion to be an automatic right - No. Should Newcastle - yes. Leeds? Villa? - that's another debate to be had.

 

Villa came down in utter disarray and no commentators or even the two villa fans I know fancied their chances of an immediate return. You were also no doubt reality checking us all when we got relegated last time and achieved promotion at the first time of asking!

Bah!

 

- and I have no delusions or illusions of grandeur ( quite the contrary actually), they´re for others to bleat about.

 

Well, if you think we should be grateful that you bother to contribute and 'keep the place lively'
that, to me, suggests pompousness and ideas above your station.
As per:-

Delusions of grandeur
phrase of delusion

1. 1.
   a false impression of one's own importance.

Anyway, far be it from me cast any judgement on your "lively input"
for which we should all be grateful ever after.
We could have a 'fun' game of 'spot the hypocrite', though?

 

Girls - put them away!!!