The Final Countdown

Spoken like a true prophet.

 

wtf, you updated something

 

Must admit was thinking same until last night.
Put some spring back in my step.
I fully believe if we miss out on top 2, we're dead and buried.
We would screw up in semis of play offs.
Our home form is dreadful - thankfully away has been great

 

You having a laugh?

 

Can somebody please explain the joke - I seem to be missing something.
Does he never usually update things?

 

I never laugh about our promotion prospects!!

 

Updated after Birmingham game

 

...and again after the Brighton game


God I'm good at this updating malarky!!!

 

Great stuff Mr Mbemba. You should start a prediction league!

 

Looking A LOT better now

 

Is that a lynch vote?

 

Yes - for Huddersfield!

 

When can we mathematically go up ?

 

When we have more points than are available for two other teams to obtain from all of their remaining games.

 

Ye I no that but a mean what results do we need and others to fluff to garuntee it

 

Well, 10 points ahead and a far superior goal difference. Essentially, if we get no worse results than the team then in 3rd we would be up with 3 games to go. In actual fact my guess is we'll be promoted in 3 games time to all intents and purposes, quite possibly by beating Leeds or even just drawing with them here.Which would be perfect, at home and to Leeds on the Good Friday.
Although I reckon we'll go up on Easter Monday

 

Well..........

-Deep breath-

Let's assume that Leeds don't score an equaliser before I've finished writing this post.......

If we beat Burton on Wednesday and Huddersfield get beat by Norwich then we will only need 9 more points to guarantee promotion. If they are held to a draw by Norwich then we would need 10 points. However, if either Leeds or Reading win on Tuesday, away to Brentford and at home to Blackburn respectively, and Huddersfield get beat, then they would overtake Huddersfield as the greatest threat to us and we would actually need 11 or 12 points to guarantee finishing above them respectively. If they only draw then Huddersfield would stay as our closest challengers mathematically. So if we win then we would need either 9, 10, 11 or 12 points to guarantee promotion. Of course if we draw with Burton that would become 11, 12, 13 or 14. If we lose to Burton it could stay at 15 unless all of Huddersfield, Reading and Leeds failed to win - in which case we would need 10, 11 or 12 points. Whatever happens, we cannot be promoted on Wednesday.

The following weekend, following our game on Wednesday, we play Wednesday at Wednesday - on Saturday. At that stage we would require either 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15 points to clinch promotion. If we win that game against Wednesday and Huddersfield, Leeds and Reading all lose, and assuming that none of them had won on Wednesday, and assuming we had beaten Burton on Wednesday before beating Wednesday on Saturday, then we would require either 3 or 4 points to clinch promotion. However, if we did not beat Wednesday, or we hadn't won on Wednesday, then it is possible that we would require 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15 points with only 15 points available. If we win on Wednesday but only draw against Wednesday on Saturday, or if we draw on Wednesday and then win against Wednesday on Saturday, then we would need 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 or 11 points. Whatever happens, we cannot be promoted against Wednesday because we would only have played on Wednesday and against Wednesday on Saturday - so not enough time. So that means that as well as us not being able to get promoted on Wednesday, we can't get promoted at Wednesday either.

However, following our game on Wednesday and against Wednesday on Saturday, we then play Leeds United on Good Friday. Depending on how results go it is possible that it could be a good Friday if we win and we had only needed 3 points to guarantee promotion. It could still be a good Friday on Good Friday even if we needed 4,5 or 6 points going into the game against Leeds, provided we beat Leeds and Reading and Huddersfield both lost. In that scenario a victory against Leeds leads to promotion. However, if we only draw against Leeds then good Friday could still be a Good Friday provided neither of Huddersfield or Reading win, and provided we only needed 3 points going into the game. So technically, to answer your question, if all results go for us then we could be promoted on Good Friday which would indeed be a good Friday. However, seeing as that combination of results is unlikely, I think it would be better to wait and see how things go on Wednesday and against Wednesday on Saturday before trying to work things out properly.

Hope that helps

 

Can someone please provide a 20 word summary to Mr Tolstoy's first chapter?

 

If every possible result goes for us then we could technically be promoted on Good Friday - but its very unlikely!