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The 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by OddDog, Jan 5, 2017.

  1. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    The Blue Riband of steeplechasing, the Cheltenham Gold Cup is run on the Friday of the festival (March 17th in 2017) over 3 miles 2½ furlongs of the new course, with 22 fences to be jumped. The ultimate test of speed, stamina and courage, the Cheltenham Gold Cup has been won by the greats of steeplechasing down the years including Golden Miller (record 5 wins from 1932-36), Mandarin, Mill House, Arkle, Desert Orchid, Best Mate, Kauto Star and Denman.

    In 2015, Coneygree became the first novice in 40 years to win the race on just his 4th start over fences, and this season another novice, Thistlecrack, is hot favourite to win the race after becoming the first novice ever to win the King George on Boxing Day.

    Current betting as of January 5th (best prices from Oddschecker):

    Thistlecrack 5/4
    Native River 8/1
    Don Cossack 12/1
    Coneygree 14/1
    Djakadam 16/1
    Cue Card, Outlander 20/1
    Valseur Lido 25/1
    Douvan, Kotkikova 33/1
    Vroum Vroum Mag, Minella Rocco, Don Poli, Empire of Dirt 40/1

    As they so rarely run against each other before the big race, it is often difficult to assess the relative merits of British and Irish form in the division, but here goes:

    British form - clearly Thistlecrack's King George victory is the best form on offer for the home team. Although Cue Card didn't run up to his mark (based on the proximity of the other horses at the finish, and I think a combination of the ground - he seems better with give these days - and trying to go with Thistlecrack from a long way out was his downfall here) the dominance of Thistlecrack was plain to see, and the handicapper has given him a chase rating of 171 based on that run. Cue Card is dropped to 170 but remains a strong candidate for a place at least, and 20/1 feels too big for his chances. Both horses are trained by Colin Tizzard, and he also has the current second favourite, Native River, who won the Welsh National off top weight in such taking style. He was 8lbs well in that day but is clearly still on the upgrade and he looks a similar type to the ill-fated Synchronised. Coneygree made his long-awaited comeback in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and served it up to Cue Card for a long way. However, coming round the final bend, the writing was on the wall as Cue Card drew readily clear and won dominantly. It has to be doubtful as to whether we will see Coneygree back to his best, but I certainly wish the Bradstocks the best of luck with him. The likes of Irish Cavalier, Seeyouatmidnight and Blaklion seem to have a mountain to climb and though of interest, Many Clouds is unlikely to run with Aintree his primary target.

    Irish form - the Lexus Chase has proved a decent form guide in recent years with both Denman and Synchronised winning the Lexus and following up at Cheltenham. The 2016 renewal looked strong on paper but produced a somewhat muddling result as the relatively unfancied Gordon Elliot pair Outlander and Don Poli landed a 1-2 in front of hot favourite Djakadam. The first 4 finished in a bit of a heap and the handicapper has raised Outlander to 164, Don Poli remains on 161 and Djakadam is dropped to 168. The notable absentee was, of course, reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Don Cossack, who is being nursed back from injury by Gordon Elliot.

    Upcoming trials: The Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham at the end of January is likely to see Thistlecrack run to gain more vital experience. Potential challengers unknown at this stage but unlikely to include Cue Card, Native River or Coneygree, all of whom will likely go straight to Cheltenham. The prospect of Many Clouds using the race as a springboard to Aintree could add interest. The Denman Chase at Newbury and the Irish Hennerssy at Leopardstown are the other 2 key trials in February which could shake up the market.

    Despite Thistlecrack being a very short-priced favourite, the race is looking like being a very good renewal with real strength in depth, particularly if Don Cossack and Coneygree arrive in top form (fingers crossed for connections). Barring any drama in the Cotswold Chase, Thistlecrack should go off a hot favourite and it could be a race that will live long in the memory .............................
     
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  2. robbie

    robbie Well-Known Member

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    Hope Cue Card is still 20/1 in a few weeks when they go NRNB, silly price.
     
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  3. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    hope your right , if all those turned up in top order and the ground was suitable , it would be a real fine renewal , but there has to be big doubts on that score ---hope that thislecrack does not make a real horlicks in one of those extravagant leaps , but like most I'll wait nearer the day ......
     
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  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I can't get on the Oddschecker site from work so using the i-Phone. The 20/1 Cue Card is Betfair only, most high street firms are around 12s although Paddy Power go 16s.

    Here the Bet365 prices, probably a better market guide:

    Thistlecrack 4/5
    Native River 8/1
    Don Cossack, Coneygree 10/1
    Cue Card 12/1
    Djakadam, Outlander 14/1
    Douvan, Vroum Vroum Mag 20/1
    Valseur Lido, Don Poli 25/1
    Minella Rocco, Empire Of Dirt 33/1
    Blaklion, Zabana, Killultagh Vic, Carlingford Lough 40/1
    Alary, Many Clouds, Black Hercules, Smad Place, Roi Des Francs 50/1
     
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  5. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Many Clouds EW on the day, Thistlecrack to win and destroy the field for MC to march into places.
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    My only worry about Thistlecrack is if he is too bold on that downhill fence (if it is still there). Otherwise, apart from Don Cossack, he has them all cooked. I can't wait for this one and will be praying it isn't an anti climax
     
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  7. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Might sound crazy but Minella Rocco 33/1 provides the e/w value in this now.

    Anything that races Thistlecrack too early might not get home and Minella Rocco will be outpaced before running on late with a rattle.

    I hope Cue Card runs- who even cares about the Ryanair?
     
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  8. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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  9. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    LOL You'd cut your bollocks off to get a Festival winner! A winner there is every owners dream.
     
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  10. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    I'd cut my horse's bollocks off, not sure about my own though <yikes>
     
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  11. tward07

    tward07 Well-Known Member

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    Did anyone read the Lydia Hislop piece on Sportinglife? Apparently Might Bite was going every bit as quick, if not quicker than Thistlecrack the whole way and would have likely have posted a quicker time had he stood up at the last. Very interesting read and makes you question the form, although visually it looked outstanding. Again, Frodon has proved to be a very good marker and Might Bite had him easily held - perhaps he is a 160+ horse already.
     
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  12. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    This was also highlighted in the current edition of ‘The Weekender’. Might Bite was raised 4 lbs by the assessor after Kempton to a perch of 152. You would have to think that somewhat lenient although, I guess, it might be academic as you would imagine his next 2 races would be something like the Reynoldstown and then the RSA. Unless, of course, old Saint Nick sees a far off plot and puts him away until the Hennessy (or what was the Hennessy).

    People, Colin Tizzard starting to slightly annoy me by continually musing in the media where his 3 horses, high in the betting for the CGC, will run re the Festival. In no instance will he make the final decision (just like he didn't over Thistlecrack’s participation in the ‘King George VI Chase’)! He seems to want to portray it was up to him re the Kempton race (when it never was) and now he's doing the same again.
     
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  13. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Cue Card is a different case in question- He is a the 2010 Bumper winner, 2012 Arkle runner up, 2013 Ryanair winner, and has won a King George. He's not your average horse and has been a wonderful flag-bearer for Colin for over 5 years.

    The owners have one more valid shot at a Gold Cup given his age, and I would be stunned if they felt the 2m 6f intermediate chase is the one for him now.

    There's Cheltenham winners and then there's Cheltenham Blue Riband winners.

    I'd be delighted to own any winner- but if I owned Cue Card I'd either give him his shot at answering the question left after his tumble last year, or skip the festival.

    The Ryanair is a really valid race for horses that might be aimed at the Gold Cup the following year or later down the line, and Imperial Commander and Cue Card himself validate that route- but not dropping down in trip in his last year of his prime.
     
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  14. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Well he did manage to convince the owners of Native River that the Welsh National was the correct race for him. I think they have a good honest relationship with the owners down at that yard and Tizzard has been right in what he has said so far this year.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 6, 2017
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  15. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    You would swear the owners were paying him to train and help make decisions!
     
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  16. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Agree, 100%. He’s advising and helping to make the decisions (as every trainer does). But ultimately (as with every horse) the final decision lies with the owner. Old boy Colin, to my interpretation, seemingly wants everyone (and I’ve no idea why) to believe he’s in complete control when he’s not (and nor is any trainer).
     
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  17. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

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    KILLUKTAGH VIC- 40/1 beat TC at Punchestown- Willie has said he will be back in the spring- ok maybe asking bit much for him to win and no I haven't and won't back him until I see him entered somewhere or there is a positive update about him
     
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  18. King Shergar

    King Shergar Well-Known Member

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    Cue Card isn't in his prime. The last time a horse of his age or older won the Gold Cup was What a Myth in 1969. He beat a bunch of old boys and average plodders at Haydock, and got found out by a younger and miles more talented horse at Kempton. They are wasting there time going for the Gold Cup, and anyone backing him might aswell just give the bookies free cash. Should be about 66/1, and even then I wouldn't be tempted.

    They should go for the Ryanair where atleast he has a slim chance of earning abit of place money.
     
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  19. King Shergar

    King Shergar Well-Known Member

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    In terms of the Gold Cup, I think a lot depends on what sort of shape Gordon Elliot can get Don Cossack in come the day. But I'm struggling to believe he can get him there at peak fitness. As he's not even ready to run now, and Cheltenham isn't that far away. I get the feeling it's a race against time that they are losing. Hence the 12/1 quotes. Make no mistake though, at his best he's incredibly talented.

    Thistlecrack does look close to a steering job with the major doubts over the defending champion providing he can jump round at this stage. The Cue Cards, Coneygree's, and Djackadams will not trouble Thistlecrack, as they don't have the ability to.

    Native River is actually a horse I like, I don't see him troubling the favourite, but I can see him chasing him home in 2nd. I think his handicap form is pretty solid and he's a horse who should keep improving.
     
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  20. beeforsalmon

    beeforsalmon Well-Known Member

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    Can't take you seriously Shergy with no :biggrin: at the end of your posts...
     
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