FRUSTRATING!!!

Someone said to me yesterday: "We're 3 points behind but it might as well be 4"

I HATE this saying!! Apparently because of goal difference we were effectively 4 points behind - we're not - we're 3 points behind and we need to gain 4 points more before the end of the season!!! If we were 4 points behind we'd need 5 more points

Not that I can see us doing that! Moyes has targetted 5 wins. Can we do it? Absolutely - we've proved we can (Palace, Bournemouth, Leicester) but we've also proved how poor we can be against basically most others!! So frustrating being a SAFC fan - in 36 years I have never known any different in the top flight except for 2 wonderful seasons under Reid where everything turned to gold - then equally turned to ****e straight after and normal service was resumed.

 

It makes sense to me.

I don't see how you're struggling with the statement your pal made.

 

It might as well be 3.1.

 

Our goal difference is ****, we really need to work on it. Play nine defenders and just try to hoof it over the top for Defoe if that stops us leaking goals at the rate we do.

We're not down and out though, far from it. I imagine our rivals are going through the same periods of despair and hope that we are and there's lots more to come in the story of this season.

 

All is not lost, there are many more twists and turns to come, never give in, I haven't just hope the Manager and players feel the same.

 

I think this season will go right to the wire, for most teams in the bottom 7 right now.

One will probably pull away, my money would be on Swansea.

The rest, I can't see strings of wins being put together unless Leics start a revival with their new manager.

I'd say 36 points, anything less than that will land you 18th place or below.

 

Considering how close we are to safety, if they've already given up we should clear out the entire squad and management team and start again.

 

Not struggling with it - if we were 4 points behind we'd need 5 so we are not effectively 4 points behind we are only 3 as we only need 4 more than them to go above them

 

It's fairly straightforward mate.

 

But he's saying it might as well be 4, he's not saying it is 4.

I agree, it might as well be 4, as 3 would make absolutely no difference.

 

Yeh we can't have them giving up already

 

3 would make a massive difference - it would mean a draw vs a loss would put us above them. If it might as well be 4, then that draw would make no difference as their goal difference is better than ours!

Suppose it might be because I do stats and mathematics in my day job - 22-19 is 3 no matter how you calculate it - I like absolutes and we are not, nor might as well be 4 points behind as, if we were 4 points behind, we'd have to gain 5 on them to be above them

 

Well that's the reason then, like I said, you're struggling with it because you're looking at it literally, when your pal wasn't talking literally.

It's EFFECTIVELY four points mate, because unless you get 4 points (or see a big swing in GD) more than them, you're going down.

No matter how many times you put this through an excel spreadsheet, 3 points will never, ever put you above Palace unless you start being unrealistic with GD. So it's effectively 4.

 

That's why it's like 3.1 points.

 

In theory yeah, if you could earn fractions of points.

 

Thanks God your not a colonoscopist. Youd be talking **** all day!

 

But if we were 3 points ahead of them with a far inferior GD, would that effectively only be 2 points ahead?

I just can't see the effectively 4 points as we need 4 points to go above them (or a 15-0 win - ) and I guess you probably already know there's no way of convincing me otherwise.

To be honest, I think it might as well be 24 points as I don;t think we'll catch them!!

 

No, but good analogy to use mate because if you were 3 points ahead with a superior goal difference (+10 for example) and there was only one game remaining, you'd be celebrating staying up, because effectively, they need 4 to leap frog you.

 

We are Sunderland - we could easily lose 6-0 to the team sitting below us!!

 

Statistically speaking I don't see anybody below us