End of season prediction - Part 2

Continueing from last week's post, I have redone my calculations for the the current league table and remaining fixtures (quickly done as everything is in a spreadsheet), and have a new end of season prediction. Remember, this is not my desired outcome (I don't really give a monkeys about anything so long as Forest go up) - this is the outcome from a mathematical model I have created in order to predict expected points according to strength of opponents remaining. As I went to some lengths to explain the model's lack of depth last week, I will also point out that I am a mathematician and have done an impartial prediction to the best of my abilities (relative to the time I'm prepared to put into the matter).

According to my calculations, the current top 12 can expect the following points in the remainder of the games:

QPR 28
Norwich 28
Swansea 29
Nott'm Forest 30
Cardiff 31
Leeds 29
Watford 25
Reading 27
Millwall 21
Leicester 25
Burnley 25
Barnsley 23

As a result, the final table would look like this (current GD separating teams tied on points):

QPR 84
Nott'm Forest 79
Cardiff 79
Swansea 79
Norwich 79
Leeds 75
Reading 69
Watford 68
Leicester 67
Burnley 65
Millwall 63
Barnsley 63

As this shows, things have got even tighter at the top and have gone slightly in Forest's favour since the last calculation, when my predicted points total was:

QPR 84
Cardiff 80
Norwich 79
Nott'm Forest 78
Swansea 78
Leeds 75
Watford 70
Reading 69
Leicester 66
Burnley 64
Millwall 63
Hull 63

Even if my calculations are no good as a final prediction, it is at least interesting to note how well teams are actually doing compared to the predictions. This is the week's change in points that each of the top 12 should have expected, according to the level of opponent they faced:

QPR 0
Nott'm Forest +1
Cardiff -1
Swansea +1
Norwich 0
Leeds 0
Reading 0
Watford -2
Leicester +1
Burnley +1
Millwall 0
Barnsley +1

So in synopsis -
A good week for Forest, Swansea, Leicester, Burnley and Barnsley
A poor week for Cardiff and Watford

 

I can see Leeds dropping out.

Either between Watford, Reading, Leicester and Milwall can get in.

If you stretch though Hull are doing ok but I cant see them challenging.

 

We won!

 

I think Cardiffs "wobble" will only get worse, can only see them dropping off as the season goes on

 

Yeah, but Jay Bothroyd is coming back for them and as much as I hate the lanky, arrogant, smallheaded ****er he is a good player who is still near the top of the scoring charts despite ages out through injury.

I would love both of us and Forest to go up, I really hope Swansea or Norwich go up too because that would put the QPR fans in their places. They are such dicks.