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Effect of Brexit

Discussion in 'Watford' started by Davylad, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Like him or not, Farage is the most influential and successful UK politician since Thatcher. Would there have been Brexit without him? maybe not.
     
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  2. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    I think that depends on how you gauge success. On a personal level he has failed to be elected to Westminster on five occasions, although judging by the news today the Tories could find themselves in a spot of strife there. Certainly he gathered together a collection of the oddball and disillusioned and created a new party, although that has never created a presence in Parliament. Since he resigned as leader of UKIP you can see how the party is falling apart, suggesting that it has always been a one man party. There are people who have had a far greater influence in the way that the UK has gone. Ted Heath took the country into the EU, and that turned the basket case that was the UK economy into a prosperous nation over forty years. Maggie Thatcher broke the over whelming power of the unions, but then proceeded to destroy what manufacturing we had, until today we have an economy that is dominated by the services sector. Tony Blair continued the work started by John Major and eventually created a peace in Northern Ireland. Just three, and there are more who have had a long lasting effect on the UK.
    Would there have been Brexit without him? Possibly, possibly not. The country has been subjected to some very poor leadership over recent years. One cannot say that the leader of the opposition is creating much of an opposition, and the government is constantly being exposed as out of it's depth . If you look around the world, the most successful countries when it comes down to looking after the population are ruled by governments that have a moderate pathway, co-operate with their neighbours, and strive for a better world, not one that is purely for the benefit of a party politician.
    I think I have written too much, but to think of Farage as more than a footnote in history seems wrong to me.
     
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  3. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    The only reason that the Tories are more popular now is that they have patched over their potential civil war more effectively than Labour have - and, that many people have the feeling 'they got us into this mess they have to get us out of it'. As I said before, the result is gone and dusted, the British voted to leave - but the destination was not decided. It is not a sign of a fully fledged democracy that every question regarding the destination should be treated as almost being treasonable. Nor is it a sign of our democracy that a part of the British political constitution (the House of Lords) should be subjected to external bullying. It is also not the sign of a fully fledged democracy to rule only for the 52% - for the future cohesion of Britain a solution must be reached which also embraces the wishes of the others. Remember also - the British system of 'first past the post' always produces a situation where the majority are against the government in power - ie. the government never truly has the mandate from the people. This issue was evaded once - by offering pr. in such a complicated form that nobody understood it - but it will not be evaded forever. Remember also that the EU. referendum did not happen because of Farage - it happened because a Tory PM. had an attack of the jitters and called a referendum for inner party reasons, a) not thinking he would get a majority, and so it could remain an empty promise. And b) thinking the result would be a foregone conclusion. Probably the biggest own goal ever made by a British PM. if the Tories have avoided being punished for this up to now, rest assured, their punishment has only been delayed.
     
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  4. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    The Eu referendum happened because of the pressure asserted by the presence of UKIP, the largest party of MEP's. UKIP would not have been so successful without Farage. The British public have wanted an EU referendum for a long time, Cameron did the right thing, he just failed to obtain any kind of sensible deal to offer the UK public. The Tories are the UK natural party for government, the Liberals are decimated, a fate awaiting the Labour Party.
     
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  5. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Farage's political ambition was to help the UK leave the EU. This was achieved spectacularly. Ted Heath was weak and succumbed too easily to the pressure from the unions, luckily Thatcher had the resolve and skill to overcome them. Tony Blair has been discredited by his mishandling Iraq, he is probably the most disliked individual in the UK. John Major's legacy amounts to his dalliance with too much Curry. None of these PMs changed the UK as much as Farage.
     
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  6. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    Do you know something which everyone else doesn't ? By what right do you apparently know what the 'British public have wanted for a long time`- are you maybe a mind reader ? Make no mistake about it SH. if the Labour Party disappeared into oblivion then the Tories would be not long in following them - these 2 parties exist because of each other, and need each other like Celtic and Rangers do.
     
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  7. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    A very superficial and biased reply there. Taken overall they did good for the country in part. Of course you can find fault with them all, but it would be very simple to find self-aggrandizement by your current hero.
     
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  8. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    There were many polls which indicated very strong support for leaving the EU over a number of years. The fact that UKip became the largest UK party in the EU should have given you a clue.

    Your prediction of a negative future can for the Tories can only be based on wishful thinking. Which party is capable of replacing the Tories in government?

    Come on give us a chuckle.
     
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  9. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Wrong, he is not my hero. I have never voted UKIP or intend to do so. I just recognise a successful politician, he really does stand out from the rest. Hopefully he can use his relationship with Trump to further help the UK.
     
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  10. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    No chuckling involved here SH. The Tories have only stayed together and kept inner party discipline over the years because of Labour. You know as well as I do that the Conservative Party has many trends within it, or how else could people like Kenneth Clarke, Michael Heseltine and co. have stayed in the same party as the Thatcherite tendency - there are also other tendencies within the party which I am sure you know about. The only thing which keeps them together is fear of the common enemy. Labour has been less successfull in this matter of inner party discipline. Without an effective opposition the Tories would break into fractions, and then breakaway parties very quickly.
     
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  11. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    So do you think that the reported financial irregularities carried out in South Thanet by the Tories were justified in keeping him out of Westminster? I doubt that you know who took the seat without looking it up.
     
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  12. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    The Tories are renowned for uniting when needed, they are the obvious party for government for the foreseeable future. Your prediction of their demise is unique. Please kindly advise which political party will remove them from power?
     
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  13. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    There are reported irregularities by several political parties, obviously none can be justified.
     
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  14. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    The Tories have not had an effective opposition for quite a long while. They are now more united than for decades since the referendum vote, apart from a few oddballs such as Clarke and Heseltine.

    There does not appear to be any sign of your prophecy above being correct unless you mean not until another 20 years or so of Tory rule?
     
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  15. zen guerrilla

    zen guerrilla Well-Known Member

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    I have to disagree with this. If the Labour party did disappear the Tories would carry on., though perhaps not as Conservatives, after all were the Tories not fighting it out with the Whigs? The Tory party formed in 1678, the Whigs even earlier, and became the Conservatives in around the 1830s. Both managed over 200 years before the Labour party arrived and will probably exist long after as well.
     
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  16. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    Do you think that Britain's future lies in a closer relationship with someone who is a) against free trade and b) Is the most unpopu
    Of course it's pure hypothesis on my part Zen. What was the Labour Party other than a breakaway party from the Whigs ? The original nucleus of their party began as the radicals within the Whig party, campaigning for the enfranchisement of the new industrial towns - so the modern Labour Party can hardly complain now when fractions develop within it with their own agenda. I agree that the establishment of breakaway parties does not go readily with the first past the post system - it's more common on the continent. Both the Labour Party and the Tories are very broad camps - this is why we have things like party whips. But this type of party whip (or party discipline) works much better if you have fear of a common enemy, which draws you together. If the enemy becomes less fearsome then the cracks start appearing.
     
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  17. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    The Labour Party have been ineffective for the last seven years whilst the Tories have become more united than ever. Your theory is just not happening, give it another fifteen years or so!!
     
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  18. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    I don't think that it will be necessary to wait that long SH. Like it or not the Tories have become the 'party of Brexit' and their fortunes will rise or fall depending on how that all pans out - the present euphoria for this move will not last forever. Once the reality of Brexit starts to sink in - once we realize that the EU. negotiators cannot be bullied in the same way that the Lords were, and Scotland is, then things may start to change. Remember - nothing has happened yet.
     
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  19. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    The Labour Party also backed the result of the referendum. The Lords were not bullied, they have a long standing understanding of the supremacy of the elected house of commons. The purpose of the Lords is to scrutinise and improve bills, not to add amendments which substantially alter the fabric of the bill. The last thing the UK needs is complication of a Scottish referendum until we have left the EU. The SNP have now succumbed to reality and accept membership of the EU is not on the cards for a very long time.

    The LP will not gain by any difficulties for the Tories over Brexit as their financial credibility has been shot to pieces. The LibDems have returned to an irrelevant protest party so unless a new centre ground party is born then the Tories have a free run for ages.
     
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  20. colognehornet

    colognehornet Well-Known Member

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    The Labour Party may have backed the result - which is as much as to say they were too afraid to do anything else. Nonetheless the referendum was called by a Tory PM, for inner party reasons. They were the only Party offering a referendum - all the major official campaigners for Brexit were Tories - and it will be carried through by a Tory PM. If it all goes tits up then the Tories will take the backlash. I know that Corbyn played a pathetic part in not managing to galvanize Labour supporters - and appears to be a closet Brexiter himself, but the public consider Brexit to be a Tory theme.
     
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